{"id":1542,"date":"2024-02-10T20:07:22","date_gmt":"2024-02-10T20:07:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1542"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:45:22","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:45:22","slug":"despre-caderea-marelui-scamator-opinia-lui-dan-diaconu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1542","title":{"rendered":"Despre c\u0103derea marelui scamator. Opinia lui Dan Diaconu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

M\u0103 tot trag unii \u0219i al\u021bii de m\u00e2nec\u0103 atunci c\u00e2nd vorbesc de bule, de minciuni, de false adev\u0103ruri s.a.m.d. Am spus doar c\u0103 tr\u0103im cea mai mare bul\u0103 a istoriei, c\u0103 e un moment de confluen\u021b\u0103 \u0219i c\u0103 \u00eentreaga economie urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 explodeze. \u201eE\u0219ti dus!<\/i>\u201d – \u00eemi spun mul\u021bi. Ei au impresia c\u0103 eu tr\u0103iesc la fel ca ei, \u00eentr-o lume fabricat\u0103, \u00een care diverse viziuni psihedelice m\u0103 fac s\u0103 v\u0103d lucrurile altfel. Asta \u00een timp ce eu spun ap\u0103sat c\u0103 e cazul ca lumea s\u0103 se trezeasc\u0103. Cine are dreptate?<\/p>\n

Nu \u0219tiam cum s\u0103 v\u0103 ilustrez mai bine cum arat\u0103 o bul\u0103. M-a ajutat \u00eens\u0103 Market Watch care a scris cu litere de-o \u0219chioap\u0103 o constatare de-a analistului Michael Hartnett (Bank of America): \u201eNvidia is now worth as much as the whole Chinese stock market<\/i>\u201d. Crede\u021bi c\u0103 mai e nevoie de vreun comentariu, de vreo explica\u021bie, de vreo adnotare? E scris negru pe alb, e ceea ce se vede \u00een cifre \u0219i nu poate fi contestat. A\u0219adar, \u201efabrica lumii\u201d, cea care asigur\u0103 cam totul pe planet\u0103, valoreaz\u0103 mai pu\u021bin dec\u00e2t un produc\u0103tor de chipuri pentru o industrie la mod\u0103. Cum vi se pare asta? Are Nvidia vreo tehnologie care nu poate fi reprodus\u0103? Aiurea, sunt c\u00e2teva companii chineze\u0219ti care fac acceleratoare \u0219i chipuri AI cam la fel de performante, doar c\u0103 sunt date \u00eenapoi de boicotul tehnologic. Boicot care, p\u00e2n\u0103 la urm\u0103 va fi spart prin acoperirea gap-ului tehnologic de c\u0103tre China.<\/p>\n

S&P 500 a dep\u0103\u0219it 5000 de puncte. Este cea mai mare bul\u0103 din istoria omenirii. Capitalizarea pie\u021bei americane a dep\u0103\u0219it 51 trilioane de dolari! \u00cen ultimele 100 de zile capitalizarea pie\u021bei a crescut cu 9 trilioane $, record istoric absolut. Ca s\u0103 \u00een\u021belegem scala v\u0103 voi spune c\u0103 actualul record l-a dep\u0103\u0219it pe cel de recuperare post-COVID (8.8 tln $), dup\u0103 ce pia\u021ba american\u0103 c\u0103zuse drastic. E \u00eens\u0103 util s\u0103 vedem amploarea fenomenului prin compararea sa cu ultimele dou\u0103 crize drastice: Marea Criz\u0103 din 2008 \u0219i Criza Dotcom. Recuperarea de dup\u0103 Criza Dotcom a adus un plus de capitalizare de 2.8 trilioane, \u00een timp ce la criza din 2008, recuperarea din 2009-2010 a adus doar 2.4 trilioane. Cea mai recent\u0103 cre\u0219tere de capitalizare nu este doar cea mai mare din istorie, dar \u0219i cea mai rapid\u0103. E vorba de pu\u021bin peste 100 de zile calendaristice \u0219i doar 69 de zile de tranzac\u021bionare!!! Dar nu sunt singurele elemente dubioase. Actuala cre\u0219tere, spre deosebire de cele anterioare, nu vine dup\u0103 o corec\u021bie semnificativ\u0103<\/b>. E un eveniment unic \u00een istorie. \u0218i-ar mai fi ceva ce nu s-a mai v\u0103zut: volatilitatea intraday a fost aproape zero!<\/p>\n

S\u0103 nu ne oprim, totu\u0219i, aici. E foarte util\u0103 compara\u021bia dintre actuala capitalizare bursier\u0103 \u0219i venitul disponibil al gospod\u0103riilor deoarece unii spun c\u0103 nu doar capitalizarea bursier\u0103 a crescut, ci \u0219i veniturile popula\u021biei. OK, dar cum interpret\u0103m situa\u021bia? Venitul disponibil al gospod\u0103riilor se ridic\u0103 la 20.6 trilioane de dolari, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103, din ace\u0219ti bani, actuala pia\u021b\u0103 poate fi absorbit\u0103 \u00een 2.5 ani de munc\u0103. Tot e o valoare f\u0103r\u0103 o semnifica\u021bie deoarece nu ne putem da seama cu adev\u0103rat dac\u0103 e mult sau pu\u021bin. De aceea vom trece s\u0103 facem compara\u021bii istorice. \u00cen 1971-1983 (perioada infla\u021bionist\u0103 a SUA), valoarea coeficientului era de 0.63 (la maximul s\u0103u!). \u00centre 1994-1997 (perioada de expansiune de dup\u0103 R\u0103zboiul Rece) valoare medie a fost de 1.1, cu un maxim de 1.5 \u00een 1997. \u00cen Criza Dotcom a crescut la o medie de 2. \u00cen perioada 2004-2008 raportul a avut o medie de 1.33, cu un maxim de 1.5, iar \u00eentre 2010-2012, la recuperarea post-criz\u0103 am avut 1.1!!! \u00centre 2013 \u0219i 2016 am avut 1.5, \u00eentre 2017 \u0219i 2019 1.77 (cu un maxim de 1.8). E c\u00e2t se poate de simplu de \u00een\u021beles c\u0103, dup\u0103 COVID, am intrat \u00eentr-o frenezie complet\u0103, \u00een care valorile pur \u0219i simplu nu mai au leg\u0103tur\u0103 cu realitatea. M\u0103 uit la cifrele acestea \u0219i nu-mi vine s\u0103 cred ceea ce scriu!<\/p>\n

Dar poate c\u0103 nu am eu dreptate. De ceva vreme ni se tot spune c\u0103 America este \u00eentr-o curs\u0103 puternic\u0103 de industrializare, iar dac\u0103 ne afl\u0103m \u00eentr-un setup de cre\u0219tere puternic\u0103 s-ar putea ca rezultatele s\u0103 fie doar aparent dezechilibrate, iar corec\u021bia lor s\u0103 se fac\u0103 pe cre\u0219tere. A\u0219a e oare? N-avem cum s\u0103 r\u0103spundem dilemei dec\u00e2t consult\u00e2nd evolu\u021biile de la baz\u0103.<\/p>\n

Indicele industrial ISM e considerat un indice-cheie al economiei americane deoarece m\u0103soar\u0103 nivelul comenzilor la nivelul fabricilor americane. Cu alte cuvinte, acest indicator ne spune ceea ce s-a cump\u0103rat din fabric\u0103, nu ceea ce ar estima cineva sau vreun sentiment rezultat dintr-o cercetare sociologic\u0103. Ei bine, indicele ISM se afl\u0103 la nivelul de -49,1 (vezi primul grafic ata\u0219at articolului). Dup\u0103 cum limpede pute\u021bi observa, indicele a fost \u00een teritoriu de contrac\u021bie timp de 15 luni consecutive. Este cea mai lung\u0103 perioad\u0103 de contrac\u021bie de la criza din 2008!<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"atempo1<\/a><\/div>\n

Av\u00e2nd nivelul ISM, poate e bine s\u0103 ne uit\u0103m \u0219i pe sec\u021biuni, adic\u0103 la nivel ceva mai local. Pentru aceasta putem consulta indicii specifici. De exemplu, Empire State Manufacturing ne arat\u0103 nivelul general al condi\u021biilor de business din New York. O valoare pozitiv\u0103 semnaleaz\u0103 condi\u021bii favorabile de business, valoarea zero este cea de echilibru, iar o valoare pozitiv\u0103 sugereaz\u0103 condi\u021bii prielnice. Acest indicator se afl\u0103 la nivelul de -43.7 (!!!), cel mai sc\u0103zut nivel din 2020! Dallas FED Manufacturing este un indice similar pentru statul Texas, iar acesta se afl\u0103 la cea mai redus\u0103 valoare din 2020. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing a sc\u0103zut brusc \u00een ianuarie la nivelul din 2020! Toate valorile le pute\u021bi vedea \u00een graficul al\u0103turat, unde cu negru pute\u021bi vedea evolu\u021bia valorilor medii ale acestor indec\u0219i.<\/p>\n

Ce avem, de fapt, aici? E o fraud\u0103 uria\u0219\u0103. \u00centreg \u201eBidenomics\u201d-ul este o imens\u0103 fraud\u0103 c\u0103ut\u00e2nd s\u0103 le v\u00e2nd\u0103 celorlal\u021bi iluzia unei Americi care merge strun\u0103. O scamatorie similar\u0103 – \u00eens\u0103 pe fundamente infinit mai bune – au reu\u0219it americanii atunci c\u00e2nd au scufundat URSS \u0219i sateli\u021bii, la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anilor 80. Falsa bun\u0103stare a fost marketat\u0103 excesiv, iar fraierii au \u00eenghi\u021bit g\u0103lu\u0219ca, v\u00e2nz\u00e2ndu-se pe m\u0103rgele de sticl\u0103 frumos colorate, dar extrem de ieftine. Un lucru similar e \u00eencercat acum de Deep State-ul american. \u00centreaga mass medie \u00ee\u0219i flexeaz\u0103 mu\u0219chii ar\u0103t\u00e2nd lumii \u201eputerea de recuperare\u201d a SUA. Se vede \u00eens\u0103 cu ochiul liber c\u0103 prima economie a lumii este, f\u0103r\u0103 drept de apel, China. Ceea ce \u00eencearc\u0103 SUA s\u0103 fac\u0103 este s\u0103 mimeze un salt tehnologic. Iar calul de b\u0103taie este mult prea marketatul AI. Culmea, AI, domeniu \u00een care China e cu mult \u00eenaintea SUA, doar c\u0103 nu marketeaz\u0103 din ra\u021biuni care \u021bin de interesul s\u0103u na\u021bional.<\/p>\n

Ar trebui s\u0103 \u00een\u021belege\u021bi c\u0103 SUA nici m\u0103car nu se afl\u0103 la prima tentativ\u0103 de acest fel. A mai fost una \u00eenainte, aproape la fel de umflat\u0103 precum aceasta, cea a tehnologiei de imprimare 3D. Mai \u021bine\u021bi minte rapoartele secrete despre cum, cu noua tehnologie, avantajul Chinei va disp\u0103rea \u00eentruc\u00e2t fiecare \u00ee\u0219i va putea produce obiectele personalizate? Unii vorbeau despre cum designerii vor vinde doar schi\u021be ale produselor care, apoi, vor fi aduse la realitate prin tip\u0103rirea \u00een tehnologia 3D. Ce s-a ales din toat\u0103 aceast\u0103 bul\u0103? Mai nimic. \u00cen tip\u0103rirea 3D tot chinezii au ajuns lideri, experiment\u00e2nd inclusiv tip\u0103rirea de case. M\u0103 rog, din punctul meu de vedere, o mare inutilitate.<\/p>\n

Nu exist\u0103 alt\u0103 concluzie dec\u00e2t c\u0103 se \u00eencearc\u0103 aceea\u0219i scamatorie, cu diferen\u021ba c\u0103 acum lumea nu mai e at\u00e2t de proast\u0103, iar butaforia american\u0103 s-a cam cojit, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t scamatorul, \u00een loc de a ne ap\u0103rea str\u0103lucitor \u0219i invincibil, \u00ee\u0219i arat\u0103 v\u00e2rsta \u00eenaintat\u0103 \u0219i uzura exagerat\u0103. De aceea trucurile nu-i mai ies, ajung\u00e2nd chiar de r\u00e2sul copiilor care, \u00een alte vremuri, r\u0103m\u00e2neau fascina\u021bi de \u201eputerile\u201d iluzionistului de pe scen\u0103. \u00cens\u0103 cum mai po\u021bi impresiona pe cineva c\u00e2nd jobenul e ponosit, iar mantia, m\u00e2ncat\u0103 de molii?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com M\u0103 tot trag unii \u0219i al\u021bii de m\u00e2nec\u0103 atunci c\u00e2nd vorbesc de bule, de minciuni, de false adev\u0103ruri s.a.m.d. Am spus doar c\u0103 tr\u0103im cea mai mare bul\u0103 a istoriei, c\u0103 e un moment de confluen\u021b\u0103 \u0219i c\u0103 \u00eentreaga economie urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 explodeze. \u201eE\u0219ti dus!\u201d – […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1543,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[637,267,270,32,413,4],"tags":[1063,1059,677,851,1065,568,1069,419,838,1067,1072,588,1074,1073,1066,1070,1058,1060,1061,248,1068,1057,1064,102,742,420,216],"class_list":["post-1542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dezvaluiri","category-economie","category-externe","category-opinii","category-pretul-zilei","category-stil_de_viata","tag-boicot","tag-bula","tag-china","tag-criza-din-2008","tag-criza-dotcom","tag-criza-economica","tag-dallas-fed-manufacturing","tag-dan-diaconu","tag-deep-state-sua","tag-empire-state-manufacturing","tag-frauda","tag-ia-inteligenta-artificiala","tag-iluzionism","tag-imprimare-3d","tag-indicele-ism","tag-kansas-city-fed-manufacturing","tag-marea-trezire","tag-market-watch","tag-michael-hartnett","tag-minciuna-ca-politica-de-stat","tag-new-york","tag-nvidia","tag-sp-500","tag-sua","tag-texas","tag-trenduri-economice","tag-urss"],"yoast_head":"\nDespre c\u0103derea marelui scamator. Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1542\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Despre c\u0103derea marelui scamator. Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com M\u0103 tot trag unii \u0219i al\u021bii de m\u00e2nec\u0103 atunci c\u00e2nd vorbesc de bule, de minciuni, de false adev\u0103ruri s.a.m.d. 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