{"id":1558,"date":"2024-02-13T14:53:47","date_gmt":"2024-02-13T14:53:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1558"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:45:20","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:45:20","slug":"de-unde-va-veni-scanteia-declansatoare-opinia-lui-dan-diaconu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1558","title":{"rendered":"De unde va veni sc\u00e2nteia declan\u0219atoare? Opinia lui Dan Diaconu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

\u0218ti\u021bi cum po\u021bi vedea cr\u0103p\u0103turile de narativ? Privind cu aten\u021bie la detalii. Imagina\u021bi-v\u0103 o petrecere luxoas\u0103. Pur \u0219i simplu, merge\u021bi pe strad\u0103 \u0219i vede\u021bi o gr\u0103din\u0103 \u0219ic \u00een care servesc chelneri elegan\u021bi. Participan\u021bii coboar\u0103 din limuzine ultra-luxoase, sunt \u00eembr\u0103ca\u021bi cu haine care au costat o avere, iar femeile \u00ee\u0219i etaleaz\u0103 bijuterii de-o rar\u0103 elegan\u021b\u0103. Te captiveaz\u0103 \u00eentregul eveniment, doar c\u0103, dup\u0103 ce e\u0219ti cucerit de priveli\u0219te \u00eencepi s\u0103 vezi detaliile care nu cadreaz\u0103. \u00cen spatele gr\u0103dinii e un c\u00e2mp de porumb unde, din c\u00e2nd \u00een c\u00e2nd, c\u00e2te un participant se duce s\u0103 se u\u0219ureze. Cum vine asta? Petrecere de lux \u00een care participan\u021bii \u00ee\u0219i fac nevoile ca la \u021bar\u0103? Apoi vezi c\u0103 rochiile acelea str\u0103lucitoare sunt f\u0103cute din h\u00e2rtie \u0219i materiale ieftine, c\u0103 se mai desfac \u0219i imediat apare o f\u0103tuc\u0103 \u00eembr\u0103cat\u0103 \u00een blugi care \u201erepar\u0103\u201d. \u0218i-abia apoi realizezi c\u0103 undeva se afl\u0103 ni\u0219te camere de filmare \u0219i c\u0103 totul e butaforie. Se toarn\u0103 un film. Nimic nu e real, doar iluzia care te-a f\u0103cut s\u0103 crezi c\u0103 ai ajuns l\u00e2ng\u0103 ni\u0219te miliardari veritabili.<\/p>\n

\u00cen mare, asta se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 \u00een lumea real\u0103 de c\u00e2teva sute de ani \u00eencoace. Tot felul de minciuni, care mai de care mai gogonate, sunt aruncate \u00een fa\u021b\u0103 pentru a cuceri narativul. \u0218i c\u00e2nd te-ai dumirit c\u0103 de fapt ai de-a face cu aceea\u0219i minciun\u0103, apare \u201enoul detergent revolu\u021bionar\u201d care-\u021bi capteaz\u0103 aten\u021bia.<\/p>\n

Azi o s\u0103 ne uit\u0103m cu aten\u021bie sporit\u0103 la pia\u021ba american\u0103, chiar dac\u0103 mul\u021bi mi-au spus c\u0103 articolul anterior a fost \u201eprea tehnic\u201d. P\u0103rerea mea e c\u0103 am descris destul de limpede fenomenul \u0219i am explicat c\u00e2t se poate de clar termenii. V\u0103 solicit aten\u021bia nu pentru a-mi etala cuno\u0219tin\u021bele, ci pentru a v\u0103 ar\u0103ta unde anume trebuie s\u0103 privi\u021bi. Nu de alta, dar ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 e unic; ve\u021bi avea nevoie de aceste no\u021biuni pentru a \u00een\u021belege lumea, dar \u0219i pentru a le povesti nepo\u021bilor nebuniile de dup\u0103 2020 (a\u0219 spune chiar de dup\u0103 2008!). A\u0219adar, la fel ca la ipotetica petrecere, ne vom uita acum cu ceva mai mult\u0103 aten\u021bie la detaliile pie\u021bei financiar-bancare americane.<\/p>\n

Prima ciud\u0103\u021benie care ne sare \u00een ochi este un ciudat dezechilibru: \u00een timp ce pia\u021ba american\u0103 de ac\u021biuni este la maxime absolute, cota\u021biile b\u0103ncilor se zbat la niveluri banale. Nu ne vom uita la marile b\u0103nci pe moment, ci la b\u0103ncile regionale, cele care au f\u0103cut \u201epetrecerea<\/i>\u201d de anul trecut. V\u0103 aminti\u021bi, nu-i a\u0219a? Ei bine, privind cota\u021biile vom observa limpede c\u0103 toate aceste institu\u021bii se afl\u0103 \u00een c\u0103dere liber\u0103 \u00een ultimii doi ani. De ce oare? Care-o fi problema lor? \u0218i cum de avem o asemenea divergen\u021b\u0103 \u00eentre \u201eeconomia care duduie<\/i>\u201d \u0219i zona financiar\u0103 care se zbate \u00een banalitatea minimelor istorice? P\u00e2n\u0103 la urm\u0103, \u00eentr-o economie coerent\u0103, atunci c\u00e2nd pia\u021ba o ia \u00een sus, majoritatea cov\u00e2r\u0219itoare a participan\u021bilor se afl\u0103 \u00een evolu\u021bie ascendent\u0103. Aici e diferit, iar buba e c\u0103 finan\u021batorul – adic\u0103 responsabilul pentru succesul campionilor – se zbate \u00een banalitate, \u00een timp ce \u201erezultatul muncii lor<\/i>\u201d e pe culmile gloriei. Iat\u0103 imaginea c\u00e2mpului de porumb \u00een care-\u0219i f\u0103ceau nevoile \u201emiliardarii<\/i>\u201d din povestea de la \u00eenceputul articolului. Am\u0103nuntul descris trebuie s\u0103 ne trag\u0103 un puternic semnal de alarm\u0103.<\/p>\n

De fapt ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103? Nu to\u021bi participan\u021bii la pia\u021ba de capital american\u0103 sunt bizoni. Cei care mi\u0219c\u0103 banii \u0219tiu bine care-i situa\u021bia \u0219i, \u00een disperare de cauz\u0103, mut\u0103 banii \u00een \u201ecampioni\u201d, fugind de \u201ep\u0103duchi\u201d. B\u0103nci de care nu a\u021bi auzit p\u00e2n\u0103 acum, precum Western Alliance Bank, Comerica, Key Bank, Valley National s.a.m.d. se zbat s\u0103 supravie\u021buiasc\u0103 la fel ca pe\u0219tele ajuns pe uscat. Se mi\u0219c\u0103 spasmodic, sper\u00e2nd c\u0103 o minune le va salva.<\/p>\n

Dar, totu\u0219i, ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103? S\u0103 ne uit\u0103m ceva mai aplicat pentru a \u00een\u021belege povestea. O s\u0103 lu\u0103m o banc\u0103 regional\u0103 din New York, denumit\u0103 Flagstar. Banca este de\u021binut\u0103 de New York Community Bancorp, o structur\u0103 tip holding aflat\u0103 \u00een spatele b\u0103ncii. Recent, banca a cunoscut o erodare brusc\u0103 a cota\u021biilor dup\u0103 ce a anun\u021bat pierderi de 36 de cen\u021bi pe ac\u021biune. Pierderile vin din \u00eemprumuturile acordate \u00een zona imobiliar\u0103, c\u0103lc\u00e2iul lui Ahile fiind … imobilele comerciale. Povestea pierderilor \u00eenregistrate acum de Flagstar este una tipic\u0103: \u00een momentul \u00een care s-au v\u0103zut primele pierderi rezultate din \u00eemprumuturile de pe pia\u021ba imobiliar\u0103, auditul b\u0103ncii a recomandat acoperirea g\u0103urii cu … \u0219i mai multe credite. Exact ca \u00een 2007-2008! Banca s-a conformat, iar acum are o gaur\u0103 c\u00e2t casa. Ca s\u0103 \u00een\u021belege\u021bi la ce nivel se discut\u0103, un proiect imobiliar de birouri care acum un an era estimat la 200 milioane $ \u0219i pentru care s-a primit un credit de 100 milioane $, este acum reevaluat la aproximativ 30 milioane $. Proiectul este deci falimentar, iar creditorul se \u00eenregistreaz\u0103 cu un minus de 100 milioane de dolari (nu 70, cum a\u021bi crede, deoarece acei 30 milioane nu sunt cer\u021bi, ci sunt supu\u0219i procesului de lichidare).<\/p>\n

\u201eSchimbarea paradigmei comerciale<\/i>\u201d a SUA, v\u0103zut\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 acum ca un succes, o modernizare de infrastructur\u0103, a creat c\u00e2\u021biva gigan\u021bi, arunc\u00e2nd \u00een aer tot ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 vad comercial. Astfel, peste noapte, magazine de proximitate, mall-uri, centre comerciale alt\u0103 dat\u0103 populare, s-au trezit f\u0103r\u0103 clien\u021bi. Iar pustiul de clien\u021bi vine la pachet cu abandonul. A\u0219a au ap\u0103rut \u201eora\u0219ele comerciale fantom\u0103\u201d, prin care nici v\u00e2ntul nu se mai \u00eencumet\u0103 s\u0103 bat\u0103. Pe-acolo mai sunt doar c\u00e2ini vagabonzi, homeless \u0219i alte viet\u0103\u021bi s\u0103lbatice sau s\u0103lb\u0103ticite. Culmea, nici m\u0103car spa\u021biile de birouri, aceste neo-fabrici ale erei post-industriale, nu mai au c\u0103utare, cota\u021biile sc\u0103z\u00e2ndu-le brusc. Asta \u00een timp ce, de la v\u00e2rful statului american, se marketeaz\u0103 o fabuloas\u0103 revenire a economiei.<\/p>\n

Ceea ce vede\u021bi la acest nivel este doar v\u00e2rful aisbergului. Nu c\u0103derea pie\u021bei \u0219i pierderile directe rezultate din credite sunt problema ci, la fel ca \u00een 2008, instrumentele derivate av\u00e2nd suport \u00een imobiliare. A\u0219a cum scriam recent pe\u00a0contul meu de Telegram<\/a>, o statistic\u0103 ar trebui s\u0103 ne pun\u0103 iar pe g\u00e2nduri serioase: \u00een 2008, pia\u021ba Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) era de 400 mld $, \u00een timp ce acum pia\u021ba\u00a0\u00a0Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO) este de 1.25 tln. $. Chestiunea e c\u00e2t se poate de relevant\u0103 \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te impactul actualei st\u0103ri de fapt deoarece CLO sunt, la r\u00e2ndul lor, produse de baz\u0103 pentru deriv\u0103ri ulterioare, a\u0219a cum am explicat \u00een mai multe r\u00e2nduri.<\/p>\n

Ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 acum pe pie\u021bele americane e o nebunie absolut\u0103. \u00cen timp ce unii \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 scape de ac\u021biunile b\u0103ncilor cump\u0103r\u00e2nd titluri \u00een sectorul tehnologic, mult mai la mod\u0103 acum, adev\u0103ra\u021bii insideri \u00ee\u0219i v\u00e2nd din ac\u021biunile de\u021binute. Un semnal a fost dat de Jeff Bezos care vinde acum pe v\u00e2rf. Nu-mi dau seama care e \u021binta pe care o urm\u0103re\u0219te, dar ie\u0219irea pe cash ne poate indica o urgen\u021b\u0103 maxim\u0103.<\/p>\n

De altfel, e foarte ciudat \u0219i semnalul de sell dat de Goldman \u00een raportul c\u0103tre clien\u021bi. Atingerea maximului istoric al cota\u021biilor \u201eegalizeaz\u0103\u201d pozi\u021bia lui Jeff Bezos cu recomandarea celor de la Goldman. Dac\u0103 v\u0103 aminti\u021bi, la fel s-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat \u0219i \u00een 2008, atunci c\u00e2nd Goldman \u201ea \u00eentors armele\u201d dup\u0103 ce fusese artizanul \u00eentregii fraude mizerabile. Doar c\u0103 atunci Goldman s-a \u00eentors la 180 de grade pe cont\u00a0 propriu, \u00een timp ce le recomanda clien\u021bilor \u201eprodusele derivate sigure\u201d.<\/p>\n

Tot ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 \u00eemi sugereaz\u0103 c\u00e2t se poate de clar c\u0103 suntem \u00een pragul unui dezastru cu impact sistemic. R\u0103m\u00e2ne s\u0103 vedem c\u00e2nd se va petrece toat\u0103 nebunia. De fapt, \u00eentreaga situa\u021bie devine absolut halucinant\u0103 deoarece, a\u0219a cum am subliniat de mai multe ori, nu mai suntem \u00een situa\u021bia \u00een care o singur\u0103 bul\u0103 speculativ\u0103 s\u0103 genereze o criz\u0103, ci una \u00een care numeroase bule speculative gata umflate se vor sparge una pe alta la prima explozie. Interesant e de v\u0103zut care dintre bulele formate va face prima dat\u0103 poc, constituindu-se \u00een declan\u0219atorul meta-crizei.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com \u0218ti\u021bi cum po\u021bi vedea cr\u0103p\u0103turile de narativ? Privind cu aten\u021bie la detalii. Imagina\u021bi-v\u0103 o petrecere luxoas\u0103. Pur \u0219i simplu, merge\u021bi pe strad\u0103 \u0219i vede\u021bi o gr\u0103din\u0103 \u0219ic \u00een care servesc chelneri elegan\u021bi. Participan\u021bii coboar\u0103 din limuzine ultra-luxoase, sunt \u00eembr\u0103ca\u021bi cu haine care au costat o avere, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1559,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,4],"tags":[1136,1131,1132,1133,1126,1124,419,1129,1135,1134,1127,248,1068,1130,1123,102,420,1128,1125],"class_list":["post-1558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinii","category-stil_de_viata","tag-bula-speculativa","tag-cladiri-de-birouri","tag-collateralized-debt-obligation-cdo","tag-collateralized-loan-obligation-clo","tag-comerica","tag-cotatiile-bancilor","tag-dan-diaconu","tag-flagstar","tag-goldman-and-sachs","tag-jeff-bezos","tag-key-bank","tag-minciuna-ca-politica-de-stat","tag-new-york","tag-new-york-community-bancorp","tag-piata-americana","tag-sua","tag-trenduri-economice","tag-valley-national-bank","tag-western-alliance-bank"],"yoast_head":"\nDe unde va veni sc\u00e2nteia declan\u0219atoare? Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1558\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"De unde va veni sc\u00e2nteia declan\u0219atoare? Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com \u0218ti\u021bi cum po\u021bi vedea cr\u0103p\u0103turile de narativ? Privind cu aten\u021bie la detalii. Imagina\u021bi-v\u0103 o petrecere luxoas\u0103. Pur \u0219i simplu, merge\u021bi pe strad\u0103 \u0219i vede\u021bi o gr\u0103din\u0103 \u0219ic \u00een care servesc chelneri elegan\u021bi. 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