{"id":1758,"date":"2024-03-15T07:25:57","date_gmt":"2024-03-15T07:25:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1758"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:46:53","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:46:53","slug":"razboiul-in-ucraina-de-la-prudenta-la-panica-ce-ascund-declaratiile-precipitate-ale-lui-macron","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1758","title":{"rendered":"R\u0103zboiul \u00een Ucraina: de la pruden\u021b\u0103 la panic\u0103… Ce ascund declara\u021biile precipitate ale lui Macron"},"content":{"rendered":"

Articol al lui Laurent Valdigui\u00e9 din 07 martie 2024, publicat pe portalul www.marianne.net, tradus \u0219i adaptat de C\u0103lin Tudose<\/a><\/p>\n

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Ce s-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat cu Pre\u0219edintele Emmanuel Macron c\u00e2nd s-a g\u00e2ndit s\u0103 trimit\u0103 trupe franceze \u00een Ucraina? Mai multe rapoarte confiden\u021biale ale Ministerul de Ap\u0103rare al Fran\u021bei explic\u0103 \u201epanica\u201d de la Elys\u00e9e, unde liderii de partid sunt invita\u021bi joi, 7 martie, s\u0103 discute aceast\u0103 problem\u0103. Pe front, ru\u0219ii sunt \u00eentr-o pozi\u021bie de for\u021b\u0103. Totu\u0219i, a fost necesar s\u0103-i arunc\u0103m lui Putin o amenin\u021bare absolut insuportabil\u0103?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Neexcluz\u00e2nd trimiterea de trupe ale Fran\u021bei \u00een Ucraina, Emmanuel Macron a st\u00e2rnit proteste \u00een Europa \u0219i a primit \u0219i dezaprobarea ferm\u0103 a americanilor. Mai mul\u021bi solda\u021bi francezi, intervieva\u021bi de Marianne<\/em><\/strong>, spun c\u0103 \u201eli s-a f\u0103cut r\u0103u\u201d. \u201eNu trebuie s\u0103 gre\u0219im \u00een fa\u021ba ru\u0219ilor, suntem o armat\u0103 de majorete!\u201d, \u00ee\u0219i bate joc de intiativa lui Macron un ofi\u021ber superior, convins c\u0103 \u201etrimiterea trupelor franceze\u201d pe frontul ucrainean ar fi pur \u0219i simplu \u201enerezonabil\u0103\u201d. La Elys\u00e9e ne asum\u0103m doar pozi\u0163ia c\u0103 \u201ePre\u015fedintele a vrut s\u0103 trimit\u0103 un semnal puternic\u201d, spune un consilier, ad\u0103ug\u00e2nd \u0219i formula stereotip\u0103 de \u201eremarci milimetrice \u015fi calibrate\u201d.<\/p>\n

La Ministerul For\u021belor Armate ale Fran\u021bei, \u00een anturajul lui S\u00e9bastien Lecornu, pozi\u021bia preziden\u021bial\u0103 este ap\u0103rat\u0103: \u201eStarea for\u021belor militare din Ucraina este foarte \u00eengrijor\u0103toare. Cuvintele pre\u0219edintelui \u00eendeamn\u0103 spre un nou \u00eenceput \u0219i arat\u0103 c\u0103 suntem la un punct de cotitur\u0103.” Dar cum am ajuns aici? Mai multe rapoarte confiden\u021biale de ap\u0103rare, pe care Marianne<\/em><\/strong> a putut s\u0103 le consulte, vorbesc despre o \u201esitua\u021bie critic\u0103\u201d. Venim cu o explica\u021bie care con\u021bine trei observa\u021bii, departe de discursurile oficiale.<\/p>\n

Prima observa\u021bie: o victorie militar\u0103 ucrainean\u0103 pare acum imposibil\u0103. De luni de zile, cancelariile europene au vrut s\u0103 cread\u0103 c\u0103 mult clamata contraofensiv\u0103 a Kievului din prim\u0103vara anului 2023, sus\u021binut\u0103 cu echipamente occidentale, va trimite armata rus\u0103 \u00eenapoi la Moscova. Rev\u0103z\u00e2nd acum care este rezultatul \u00een realitate, vedem ceva absolut cople\u0219itor.<\/p>\n

\u201eContraofensiva Kievului s-a blocat treptat \u00een noroi \u0219i s\u00e2nge \u0219i nu a dus la niciun c\u00e2\u0219tig strategic\u201d, scrie un raport confiden\u021bial al ap\u0103r\u0103rii despre \u201ee\u0219ecul ofensivei ucrainene\u201d, raport la care a avut acces \u0219i Redac\u021bia celor de la Marianne<\/em><\/strong>.
Privind \u00een urm\u0103, toat\u0103 planificarea imaginat\u0103 la Kiev \u0219i \u00een sediile occidentale, s-a dovedit a fi \u201edezastruoas\u0103\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201ePlanificatorii credeau c\u0103, de \u00eendat\u0103 ce primele linii de ap\u0103rare ruse\u0219ti vor fi trecute, \u00eentregul front rus se va pr\u0103bu\u0219i. Aceste iluzii preliminare fundamentale ale occidentului nu au \u021binut deloc cont de for\u021ba morale a inamicului aflat \u00een defensiv\u0103.<\/p>\n

Anume s\u0103 se \u021bin\u0103 cont de dorin\u021ba nestr\u0103mutat\u0103 a soldatului rus de a se \u021bine de fiecare palm\u0103 de p\u0103m\u00e2nt\u201d, noteaz\u0103 acest raport \u00een care se evoc\u0103 \u201ee\u0219ecul absolut al planific\u0103rii\u201d taberei occidentale.<\/p>\n


Dezechilibrul \u00eentre for\u021be<\/strong><\/p>\n

O alt\u0103 lec\u021bie care pare a nu fi nici acum \u00eenv\u0103\u021bat\u0103 este preg\u0103tirea insuficient\u0103 a solda\u021bilor \u0219i a superiorilor militari ucraineni: \u201eBrig\u0103zile nou formate erau \u00een principal de nivel administrativ\u201d iar preg\u0103tirea lor nu a durat mai mult de trei s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni. Din cauza lipsei de cadre \u0219i a unui num\u0103r semnificativ de veterani, ace\u0219ti \u201esolda\u021bi de gr\u0103dini\u021b\u0103\u201d ucraineni au fost lansa\u021bi s\u0103 atace \u201eo linie de fortifica\u021bii ruse care s-a dovedit \u00een final a fi inexpugnabil\u0103\u201d.<\/p>\n

F\u0103r\u0103 niciun sprijin aerian, cu echipamente occidentale care sunt disparate \u0219i mai pu\u021bin eficiente dec\u00e2t echipamentele sovietice vechi, \u201ecare chiar dac\u0103 sunt \u00eenvechite, sunt u\u0219or de \u00eentre\u021binut \u0219i capabile de a fi utilizate chiar \u0219i degradate\u201d, dup\u0103 cum se men\u021bioneaz\u0103 \u00een raport, trupele ucrainene nu au avut nicio \u0219ans\u0103 str\u0103pung\u0103 frontul rus.<\/p>\n

S\u0103 ad\u0103ug\u0103m \u0219i \u201esuperdomina\u021bia rus\u0103 \u00een domeniul bruiajului electronic care penalizeaz\u0103, pe partea ucrainean\u0103, folosirea dronelor \u0219i a sistemelor de comand\u0103\u201d. \u201eArmata rus\u0103 este ast\u0103zi referin\u021ba tactic\u0103 \u0219i tehnic\u0103 pentru g\u00e2ndirea \u0219i implementarea modului defensiv de ap\u0103rare\u201d, scrie raportul.<\/p>\n

Moscova nu are doar echipamente grele de inginerie civil\u0103 \u0219i militar\u0103 care i-au permis s\u0103 construiasc\u0103 lucr\u0103ri de ap\u0103rare, remarc\u00e2nd \u00een subsidiar \u201eabsen\u021ba aproape total\u0103 a acestor tipuri de echipament pe partea ucrainean\u0103 \u0219i imposibilitatea occidentalilor de a le furniza rapid\u201d.<\/p>\n

Amintim de cei 1.200 km de lungime de front, cunoscu\u021bi sub numele de Linia Surokovin, numit\u0103 dup\u0103 un general rus, unde teritoriile minate sunt absolut enorme, undeva la 7000 de kilometri p\u0103tra\u021bi, deci o ad\u00e2ncime de minare de undeva de 6 kilometri pe toat\u0103 linia fortificat\u0103.<\/p>\n

O alt\u0103 not\u0103 de care trebuie s\u0103 se \u021bin\u0103 cont este c\u0103 \u201eru\u0219ii au \u0219tiut s\u0103-\u0219i conduc\u0103 trupele de rezervi\u0219ti, s\u0103 le garanteze rezisten\u021ba opera\u021bional\u0103\u201d. Potrivit acestui document, Moscova \u00ee\u0219i \u00eent\u0103re\u0219te unit\u0103\u021bile \u00eenainte ca acestea s\u0103 fie complet epuizate, amestec\u0103 recru\u021bii cu trupe experimentate, ofer\u0103 perioade regulate de odihn\u0103 \u00een spatele frontului \u0219i \u201ea avut \u00eentotdeauna un rezervor coerent de for\u021b\u0103 pentru a face fa\u021b\u0103 evenimentelor neprev\u0103zute\u201d.<\/p>\n

Suntem departe de ideea larg r\u0103sp\u00e2ndit\u0103 \u00een Occident a unei armate ruse care \u00ee\u0219i trimite trupele la m\u0103cel f\u0103r\u0103 s\u0103 socoteasc\u0103 \u0219i f\u0103r\u0103 s\u0103-i pese de vie\u021bile militarilor… \u201eP\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een prezent, statul major ucrainean nu are o mas\u0103 critic\u0103 de for\u021be terestre capabile s\u0103 execute manevre comune la nivel coordonat \u00eentre corpurile de armat\u0103, \u00een a\u0219a fel \u00eenc\u00e2t s\u0103 fie capabile s\u0103-\u0219i provoace omologii ru\u0219i, str\u0103pung\u00e2ndu-le liniile defensive\u201d, conchide acest Raport Confiden\u021bial de Ap\u0103rare, potrivit c\u0103ruia \u201ecea mai grav\u0103 eroare de analiz\u0103 \u0219i judecat\u0103 ar fi aceea de a c\u0103uta \u00een continuare solu\u021bii exclusiv militare pentru a opri ostilit\u0103\u021bile.\u201d<\/p>\n

Un ofi\u021ber francez de rang \u00eenalt rezum\u0103: \u201eEste clar c\u0103, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere for\u021bele prezente, Ucraina nu poate c\u00e2\u0219tiga militar acest r\u0103zboi.\u201d<\/p>\n


Kievul \u00een defensiv\u0103 <\/strong><\/p>\n

A doua observa\u021bie: conflictul a intrat \u00eentr-o faz\u0103 critic\u0103 \u00een decembrie 2013. Potrivit surselor noastre militare de la Paris, Armata Ucrainean\u0103 a intrat \u00een modul defensiv constr\u00e2ns\u0103 \u0219i for\u021bat\u0103 de for\u021bele militare ale Armatei Rusiei.<\/p>\n

\u201eCombativitatea solda\u021bilor ucraineni este profund afectat\u0103\u201d, a men\u021bionat de atunci un raport prospectiv dedicat anului 2024.
\u201eZelensky ar avea nevoie de 35.000 de oameni pe lun\u0103, nu recruteaz\u0103 nici m\u0103car jum\u0103tate dintre ei, \u00een timp ce Putin atrage un grup de peste 30.000 militari pe lun\u0103, care se \u00eenroleaz\u0103 absolut voluntar\u201d, noteaz\u0103 un gradat occidental care s-a \u00eentors de la Kiev. \u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te echipamentul, echilibrul este la fel de distorsionat, ofensiva e\u0219uat\u0103 din 2023 ar fi\u00a0\u201edistrus tactic\u201d\u00a0jum\u0103tate din cele 12 brig\u0103zi de lupt\u0103 ale Kievului.<\/p>\n

De atunci, ajutorul occidental nu a fost niciodat\u0103 at\u00e2t de sc\u0103zut. Prin urmare, este clar c\u0103 nicio ofensiv\u0103 ucrainean\u0103 nu poate fi organizat\u0103 \u00een acest an. \u201eOccidentul poate furniza imprimante 3D pentru a face drone sau muni\u021bii, dar nu va putea niciodat\u0103 s\u0103 imprime militari experimenta\u021bi\u201d, noteaz\u0103 acest raport. \u201eAv\u00e2nd \u00een vedere situa\u021bia, s-ar fi putut lua \u00een considerare \u00eent\u0103rirea armatei ucrainene, nu cu lupt\u0103tori, ci cu for\u021be de sprijin \u00een spate, permi\u021b\u00e2nd solda\u021bilor ucraineni din spatele frontului s\u0103 fie elibera\u021bi pentru lupta de pe front\u201d, admite un ofi\u021ber de rang \u00eenalt, confirm\u00e2nd de altfel, pentru \u00eemplinirea acestui deziderat o \u201ecre\u0219tere\u201d\u00a0a personalului militar occidental, prezent \u00een Ucraina \u00een haine civile.<\/p>\n

Chiar dac\u0103 cele dou\u0103 vagoane americane ata\u0219ate trenului care face leg\u0103tura zilnic\u0103 \u00eentre Polonia \u0219i Kiev ar fi pline de personal tactic, vagoane probabil folosite de CIA, tab\u0103ra occidental\u0103 admite doar cu jum\u0103tate de gur\u0103 prezen\u021ba for\u021belor speciale occiddntale \u00een Ucraina. \u201ePe l\u00e2ng\u0103 americani, care au autorizat reporterii de la\u00a0New York Times<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0s\u0103 viziteze o tab\u0103r\u0103 a CIA din Ucraina, exist\u0103 \u0219i destul de mul\u021bi britanici\u201d, remarc\u0103 un alt gradat occidental, care nu neag\u0103 nici prezen\u021ba for\u021belor speciale franceze, \u00een special a \u00eenot\u0103torilor militari, scafandri folosi\u021bi la sabotaje, pentru misiuni de antrenament.<\/p>\n


Noile arme ale Rusiei<\/strong><\/p>\n

A treia observa\u021bie: riscul unei avalan\u0219e militare ruse\u0219ti este real. Aceasta este cea mai recent\u0103 lec\u021bie de pe frontul ucrainean, care d\u0103 o sudoare rece pe frun\u021bile observatorilor Armatei Fran\u021bei.<\/p>\n

Pe 17 februarie, Kievul a fost nevoit s\u0103 abandoneze ora\u0219ul Avdiivka, din suburbiile nordice ale Done\u021bkului, care p\u00e2n\u0103 atunci a fost unul dintre cele mai fortificate bastioane ale Kievului. \u201eA fost at\u00e2t inima, c\u00e2t \u0219i simbolul rezisten\u021bei ucrainene \u00eenpotriva Donbasului vorbitor de limb\u0103 rus\u0103\u201d, subliniaz\u0103 un raport despre \u201eB\u0103t\u0103lia de la Avdiivka\u201d, unde au fost trase o serie de lec\u021bii absolut de nesuportat de planificatorii occidentali.<\/p>\n

\u201eRu\u0219ii \u0219i-au schimbat modus operandi-ul prin compartimentarea ora\u0219elor pe care le atac\u0103 \u0219i mai ales prin utilizarea bombelor planante la scar\u0103 larg\u0103 pentru prima dat\u0103 \u00een Adiivka\u201d, noteaz\u0103 acest document.<\/p>\n

Compar\u00e2nd un obuz de artilerie de 155 mm care poart\u0103 7 kg de explozibil, bomba plutitoare proiecteaz\u0103 \u00eentre 200 \u0219i 700 kg de explozibil \u0219i, prin urmare, poate str\u0103punge structuri de beton de peste 3 metri grosime. Acesta este iadul pentru ap\u0103rarea ucrainean\u0103, care ar fi pierdut pe toat\u0103 perioada asediului acestui ora\u0219 peste 1.000 de oameni pe zi.<\/p>\n

\u00cen plus, ru\u0219ii folosesc supresoare de sunet la armele mici ale infanteriei pentru a \u00eenvinge sistemele de detectare acustic\u0103 din teren. \u201eDecizia de retragere a for\u021belor armate ucrainene din Adiivka a fost un \u0219oc absolut nepl\u0103cut\u201d, noteaz\u0103 acest ultim raport, subliniind\u00a0\u201e neprofesionalismul \u0219i lipsa de preg\u0103tire a militarilor ucraineni\u201d,\u00a0trezind temeri c\u0103 aceast\u0103 alegere a fost \u201emai mult necontrolat\u0103 dec\u00e2t decis\u0103 de comandamentul central ucrainean\u201d,\u00a0evoc\u00e2nd un posibil \u00eenceput de \u201ecapitulare neconditionat\u0103\u201d \u00een fa\u021ba asaltului rusesc.<\/p>\n

\u201eFor\u021bele armate ucrainene tocmai au demonstrat tactic c\u0103 nu au capacit\u0103\u021bi umane \u0219i materiale pentru a \u021bine cu din\u021bii un sector al frontului care este supus asaltului atacatorului\u201d, continu\u0103 documentul. \u201eE\u0219ecul ucrainean de la Avdiivka arat\u0103 c\u0103, \u00een ciuda trimiterii de urgen\u021b\u0103 a unei brig\u0103zi de elit\u0103, a 3-a Brigad\u0103 de Asalt Aerian Azov, Kievul nu a fost capabil s\u0103 restabileasc\u0103 de la pr\u0103bu\u0219ire, la nivel local, niciun sector al frontului\u201d, alarmeaz\u0103 acest ultim raport.<\/p>\n


Arta ruseasc\u0103 a maskirovk\u0103i<\/em> <\/strong><\/p>\n

R\u0103m\u00e2ne de v\u0103zut ce vor face ru\u0219ii din acest succes tactic. Vor continua \u00een acela\u0219i mod de \u201eciugulire \u0219i ciobire \u00eenceat\u0103\u201d pe toat\u0103 linia frontului sau vor c\u0103uta \u201es\u0103 p\u0103trund\u0103 fulminant \u00een ad\u00e2ncuri\u201d? \u201eTerenul din spatele ora\u0219ului Avdiivka le permite orice\u201d, subliniaz\u0103 acest document recent, avertiz\u00e2nd, de asemenea, c\u0103 occidentalii tind \u0219i continu\u0103 s\u0103-i \u201esubestimeze\u201d pe ru\u0219i, cu toate c\u0103 exact ru\u0219ii \u00een\u0219i\u0219i sunt adep\u021bii practicii \u201emaskirovk\u0103i\u201d, care \u201econst\u0103 \u00een a p\u0103rea slabi inamicilor atunci c\u00e2nd sunt de fapt puternici\u201d.<\/p>\n

Potrivit acestei analize, dup\u0103 doi ani de r\u0103zboi, for\u021bele militare ale Armatei Ruse \u0219i-au demonstrat, a\u0219adar, capacitatea de a-\u0219i \u201edezvolta necontenit rezisten\u021ba opera\u021bional\u0103\u201d, ceea ce le permite s\u0103 duc\u0103 \u201eun r\u0103zboi de intensitate lent \u0219i lung, bazat pe uzura continu\u0103 a armatei ucrainene\u201d. Aceasta este o observa\u021bie care genereaz\u0103 pentru occident un viitor plin de pesimism.<\/p>\n

Este oare aceast\u0103 nou\u0103 situa\u021bie strategic\u0103, \u00een care Armata Rusiei pare s\u0103 se afle \u00eentr-o pozi\u021bie de for\u021b\u0103 \u00eempotriva unei armate ucrainene r\u0103mase f\u0103r\u0103 presiune, acest fapt fiind exact motivul ce l-a determinat pe Emmanuel Macron, s\u0103 ia \u00een considerare trimiterea oficial\u0103 de trupe militare franceze \u0219i occidentale de \u00eent\u0103rire?<\/p>\n

Aceasta este perspectiva realist\u0103 asupra situa\u021biei opera\u021bionale actuale, descris\u0103 ca fiind \u201ecritic\u0103\u201d de c\u0103tre observatorii occidentali din teren. Dar dup\u0103 cum cu lehamite declar\u0103 un ofi\u021ber francez, \u201eceea ce poate p\u0103rea realist din punct de vedere strict tactic se poate dovedi a fi extrem de nerealist din punct de vedere strategic \u0219i diplomatic\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Articol al lui Laurent Valdigui\u00e9 din 07 martie 2024, publicat pe portalul www.marianne.net, tradus \u0219i adaptat de C\u0103lin Tudose   Ce s-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat cu Pre\u0219edintele Emmanuel Macron c\u00e2nd s-a g\u00e2ndit s\u0103 trimit\u0103 trupe franceze \u00een Ucraina? Mai multe rapoarte confiden\u021biale ale Ministerul de Ap\u0103rare al Fran\u021bei explic\u0103 \u201epanica\u201d de la Elys\u00e9e, unde liderii de partid […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinii"],"yoast_head":"\nR\u0103zboiul \u00een Ucraina: de la pruden\u021b\u0103 la panic\u0103... 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