{"id":1792,"date":"2024-03-10T18:34:40","date_gmt":"2024-03-10T18:34:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1792"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:46:54","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:46:54","slug":"cum-reusesc-sua-sa-si-deseneze-o-noua-cariera-remarcabila-opinia-lui-dan-diaconu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1792","title":{"rendered":"Cum reu\u0219esc SUA s\u0103-\u0219i deseneze o nou\u0103 carier\u0103 remarcabil\u0103? Opinia lui Dan Diaconu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Indicele semiconductorilor ($SOX) a dep\u0103\u0219it v\u00e2rful din anul 2000. O similaritate stranie cu criza dotcom. Care similaritate nu este singura. Av\u00e2ntul companiilor tehnologice, iluzia AI-ului \u201esalvator \u0219i reconfigurator\u201d al \u00eentregii lumi genereaz\u0103 o realitate similar\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 la confuzie cu ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpla \u00een v\u00e2rful DotCom.<\/p>\n

\"grafdd1-300x216
\n\u00cen c\u00e2teva luni s-au creat din nimic peste 11 trilioane de capitalizare, ceea ce este exact comparabil cu bula dotcom din 1995-2000. Doar c\u0103 \u00een acea criz\u0103 acumularea a durat 5 ani \u0219i jum\u0103tate, \u00een timp ce acum, doar patru luni. Dac\u0103 introducem infla\u021bia \u00een joc \u0219i refacem calculele constat\u0103m c\u0103 bula dot-com a creat aproximativ 19 trilioane de $ capitalizare (la pre\u021burile actuale). \u00cen\u021belege\u021bi magnitudinea: atunci au fost create 19 trilioane $ (\u00een bani actuali) \u00een cinci ani \u0219i jum\u0103tate \u00een timp ce, acum, \u00een doar patru luni avem 11 trilioane $ bani din nimic! F\u0103t Frumos era mic copil!<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"atempo1<\/a><\/div>\n

Doar c\u0103 nu avem de-a face doar cu similarit\u0103\u021bi ale unei singure crize, ci cu multiple elemente care ne amintesc de diverse crize epice al turbulentului secol XX. Exist\u0103, \u00eens\u0103, \u0219i premiere nefaste, precum cea din graficul al\u0103turat. Niciodat\u0103 \u00een istorie raliul pie\u021bei de capital nu a fost condus de un num\u0103r at\u00e2t de mic de companii. \u0218i aici e vorba de un raliu care pare a nu se mai opri, indiferent de fundamentele care sunt at\u00e2t de fragile \u00eenc\u00e2t \u00eengrijoreaz\u0103 orice om s\u0103n\u0103tos la cap. \u00cens\u0103, dup\u0103 cum bine \u0219tim, \u00eentr-un mediu dominat de ira\u021bional, fundamentele nu valoreaz\u0103 nici c\u00e2t o ceap\u0103 degerat\u0103.<\/p>\n

Sistemul bancar american e gata s\u0103 \u00eenregistreze o nou\u0103 pr\u0103bu\u0219ire f\u0103r\u0103 precedent, \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care conturile asigur\u0103torului depozitelor (FDIC) sunt practic goale. Iar \u0219eful FED vorbe\u0219te c\u00e2t se poate de clar \u0219i pe unde apuc\u0103 de faptul c\u0103 datoria SUA este absolut nesustenabil\u0103, iar politica fiscal\u0103, un dezastru.<\/p>\n

Mul\u021bi pot fi \u0219oca\u021bi de pozi\u021bia lui Powell. Asta pentru c\u0103 nu \u00een\u021beleg realit\u0103\u021bile, nu se uit\u0103 pe raport\u0103ri \u0219i tr\u0103iesc cu iluzia c\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 la urm\u0103 totul merge \u00eenainte \u0219i merge bine. Ceea ce e fals. Hai, totu\u0219i, s\u0103 ne uit\u0103m \u00eempreun\u0103 la c\u00e2teva chestii de-a dreptul \u0219ocante.<\/p>\n

Deficitul bugetar al SUA se umfl\u0103 precum F\u0103t-Frumos. Conform\u00a0datelor oficiale<\/a>, deficitul bugetar al lunii februarie va fi de peste 305 mld. $, al doilea cel mai mare din istorie dup\u0103 nebunia din februarie 2021. Un calcul sumar ne arat\u0103 c\u0103 deficitul anual va dep\u0103\u0219i 2 trilioane $. Asta, \u00eens\u0103, nu e totul. Revenind la problemele de pe pia\u021ba bancar\u0103, unde un nou contingent de b\u0103nci regionale st\u0103 s\u0103 cad\u0103, am putea estima c\u0103 un accident (care oricum e inevitabil) ar trebui s\u0103 bage ad\u00e2nc m\u00e2inile \u00een buzunarele Bugetului, solicit\u00e2nd alte 1.5-2 trilioane $ pentru salvare. Ceea ce spun aici se refer\u0103 la o criz\u0103 normal\u0103, nu una catastrofal\u0103 precum cea care se preg\u0103te\u0219te.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"atempo<\/a><\/div>\n

Fac o parantez\u0103 deoarece sunt tot mai mul\u021bi cei care m\u0103 trag de m\u00e2nec\u0103 \u00eentreb\u00e2ndu-m\u0103 de unde \u0219tiu eu de vreo criz\u0103. Ce, am vreun glob de cristal? Desigur, nu am nici un glob, \u00eemi bazez opiniile pe date. \u00cen imaginea al\u0103turat\u0103 ave\u021bi o monitorizare a a\u0219a-numitului Dark Index, cel care m\u0103soar\u0103 tranzac\u021biile efectuate prin dark pool-urile b\u0103ncilor de investi\u021bii (am mai descris aceste pie\u021be oculte, un exemplu aici<\/a>). Indexul ne arat\u0103 o pr\u0103bu\u0219ire a tranzac\u021biilor prin aceste pie\u021be obscure, dar cu o men\u021binere a lichidit\u0103\u021bii generale a pie\u021belor. Tradus, avem o mutare a rechinilor financiari din zona dark pool \u00een zona pie\u021belor reglementate, unde descarc\u0103 rahatul c\u0103tre fraieri. Practic, cei care \u0219tiu cu ce se m\u0103n\u00e2nc\u0103 pie\u021bele financiare fug pe cash, \u0219ti\u021bi doar c\u0103 \u0219obolanii sunt primii care p\u0103r\u0103sesc corabia \u00een fl\u0103c\u0103ri.<\/p>\n

Revenim acum la subiectul principal. Trezoreria caut\u0103 s\u0103 lini\u0219teasc\u0103 pie\u021bele afirm\u00e2nd c\u0103 \u00een a doua jum\u0103tate a anului va emite titluri cu maturitatea cuprins\u0103 \u00eentre trei \u0219i zece ani. Chestiunea e de-a dreptul hazlie deoarece toat\u0103 lumea se \u00eentreab\u0103 cine va cump\u0103ra a\u0219a ceva? \u0218ti\u021bi cum se v\u00e2nd titlurile de trezorerie americane? Prin opera\u021biuni reverse repo. Doar c\u0103, din mai anul trecut \u0219i p\u00e2n\u0103 acum, resursele pentru reverse repo au sc\u0103zut de la 2.3 trilioane la 0.44 trilioane. Pff, ce ne spune asta? P\u0103i e limpede: mai mult ca oric\u00e2nd, SUA are nevoie de o Samatha financiar\u0103 care s\u0103 ne arate noi vr\u0103ji desf\u0103\u0219urate live. Acum, \u00een rolul frumoasei Elisabeth Montgomery o avem pe baba spa\u021bial\u0103 Janet Yellen, iar imaginea cred c\u0103 e destul de sugestiv\u0103 pentru a nu mai comenta.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"atempo<\/a><\/div>\n

Dar, ca s\u0103 fiu r\u0103ut\u0103cios v\u0103 voi mai spune ceva: \u0219ti\u021bi cum e chestia asta cu \u201evom face dup\u0103 jum\u0103tatea anului<\/i>\u201d? Exact ca determinarea lui mo\u0219 Biden de a pune la loc rezervele strategice de petrol pe care le-a p\u0103pat ca efect al r\u0103zboiului din Ucraina. Mai \u021bine\u021bi minte c\u00e2nd v\u0103 spuneam c\u0103-i va fi imposibil s\u0103 completeze golurile de-acolo? Asta \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care at\u00e2t anul trecut c\u00e2t \u0219i acum doi ani sus\u021binea c\u0103 le reface. Ei bine, da\u021bi un ochi pe graficul evolu\u021biei rezervelor ca s\u0103 constata\u021bi c\u0103 e exact ca \u00een bancul cu Radio Erevan: \u201enu era o Volg\u0103, ci o biciclet\u0103, \u0219i nu a fost dat\u0103, ci luat\u0103<\/i>\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u0218tiu, ve\u021bi spune din nou c\u0103 sunt sluga lui Putin, dar absolut toate cifrele pe care vi le ar\u0103t sunt luate din surse oficiale de-ale licuriciului. Ave\u021bi link-uri, grafice, tot ce vre\u021bi pentru a m\u0103 putea verifica. Dar, cel mai bine m\u0103 ve\u021bi verifica \u00een mijlocul dezastrului, c\u00e2nd v\u0103 voi exaspera din nou \u00eencep\u00e2ndu-mi articolele cu \u201eA\u0219a cum v-am mai spus …<\/i>\u201d. P\u00e2n\u0103 atunci, sta\u021bi lini\u0219ti\u021bi: totul e sub control \u00een cea mai frumoas\u0103 dintre lumi! \u0218i, ca s\u0103 fiu r\u0103ut\u0103cios p\u00e2n\u0103 la final, voi \u00eencheia spun\u00e2ndu-v\u0103 c\u0103 e mai mult dec\u00e2t clar c\u0103 SUA vor e\u0219ua \u00een tentativa de a r\u0103m\u00e2ne liderul de facto<\/em> al planetei, dar se afl\u0103 la \u00eenceputul unei cariere deosebit de interesante: aceea de comediant-\u0219ef al lumii. Au \u00eenceput-o \u00een Ucraina \u0219i ceva \u00eemi spune c\u0103 o vor continua pe t\u0103r\u00e2muri americane.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com Indicele semiconductorilor ($SOX) a dep\u0103\u0219it v\u00e2rful din anul 2000. O similaritate stranie cu criza dotcom. Care similaritate nu este singura. Av\u00e2ntul companiilor tehnologice, iluzia AI-ului \u201esalvator \u0219i reconfigurator\u201d al \u00eentregii lumi genereaz\u0103 o realitate similar\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 la confuzie cu ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpla \u00een v\u00e2rful DotCom. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1793,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[267,270,32,4],"tags":[1408,1065,389,419,1399,1400,1395,1397,369,1404,1398,1394,487,588,417,1405,1281,100,1392,1390,1406,1393,1396,105,1402,1407,1389,1147,102,420,1403,214],"class_list":["post-1792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-externe","category-opinii","category-stil_de_viata","tag-comedie","tag-criza-dotcom","tag-crize","tag-dan-diaconu","tag-dark-index","tag-dark-pool","tag-datorii-de-stat","tag-deficitul-bugetar-al-sua","tag-economie","tag-elisabeth-montgomery","tag-falimentul-bancilor","tag-fdic","tag-fed","tag-ia-inteligenta-artificiala","tag-inflatie","tag-janet-yellen","tag-jerome-powell","tag-joe-biden","tag-moneda-calpa","tag-moneda-fiduciara","tag-petrol","tag-piata-de-capital","tag-politica-fiscala-a-sua","tag-razboi-ucraina","tag-rechini-financiari","tag-rezervele-strategice-de-petrol-ale-sua","tag-semiconductori","tag-sistemul-bancar-american","tag-sua","tag-trenduri-economice","tag-trezoreria-sua","tag-vladimir-putin"],"yoast_head":"\nCum reu\u0219esc SUA s\u0103-\u0219i deseneze o nou\u0103 carier\u0103 remarcabil\u0103? Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1792\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cum reu\u0219esc SUA s\u0103-\u0219i deseneze o nou\u0103 carier\u0103 remarcabil\u0103? Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com Indicele semiconductorilor ($SOX) a dep\u0103\u0219it v\u00e2rful din anul 2000. O similaritate stranie cu criza dotcom. Care similaritate nu este singura. 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Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1792","og_locale":"ro_RO","og_type":"article","og_title":"Cum reu\u0219esc SUA s\u0103-\u0219i deseneze o nou\u0103 carier\u0103 remarcabil\u0103? Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit","og_description":"Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com Indicele semiconductorilor ($SOX) a dep\u0103\u0219it v\u00e2rful din anul 2000. O similaritate stranie cu criza dotcom. Care similaritate nu este singura. Av\u00e2ntul companiilor tehnologice, iluzia AI-ului \u201esalvator \u0219i reconfigurator\u201d al \u00eentregii lumi genereaz\u0103 o realitate similar\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 la confuzie cu ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpla \u00een v\u00e2rful DotCom. 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