{"id":1798,"date":"2024-03-07T20:39:59","date_gmt":"2024-03-07T20:39:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1798"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:46:27","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:46:27","slug":"cum-se-schimba-fundamentele-lumii-opinia-lui-dan-diaconu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1798","title":{"rendered":"Cum se schimb\u0103 fundamentele lumii. Opinia lui Dan Diaconu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Ieri am promis c\u0103 o s\u0103 v\u0103 povestesc ceva mai multe despre lipsa de fundamente a strategiei occidentale. Pentru americani, strategia dezbin\u0103rii e una c\u00e2t se poate de clasic\u0103. De altfel, \u201estrategia evit\u0103rii\u201d a fost o constant\u0103 a politicii lor externe. Motivul e c\u00e2t se poate de simplu, anume men\u021binerea statutului hegemonic. P\u00e2n\u0103 acum, absolut totul a func\u021bionat perfect, motiv pentru care cei mai mul\u021bi observatori se \u00eentreab\u0103 – poate pe bun\u0103 dreptate – de ce nu ar func\u021biona \u0219i de-acum \u00eenainte?<\/div>\n

Exist\u0103 un motiv evident, anume pierderea fundamentului economic. \u00cen vremurile \u00een care SUA dansau peste cadavrele victimelor liber alese, \u021bara era un colos economic, fiind responsabil\u0103 pentru cea mai mare parte a PIB-ului mondial. Acum treburile s-au schimbat radical: SUA nu mai e campioan\u0103. Economia num\u0103rul unu a lumii este China, iar modul \u00een care este condus\u0103 o propulseaz\u0103 \u00eentr-un scenariu at\u00e2t de dinamic \u00eenc\u00e2t SUA nici m\u0103car n-o mai poate imita. Pentru a \u00een\u021belege \u201esuccesul\u201d american nu trebuie s\u0103 ne uit\u0103m dec\u00e2t la un singur indicator c\u00e2t se poate de relevant: fiecare dolar de cre\u0219tere economic\u0103 a SUA vine la pachet cu \u00eemprumuturi cel pu\u021bin duble. A\u0219adar, pentru a face un dolar, SUA are cheltuieli de cel pu\u021bin doi dolari, bani pe care-i ia cu \u00eemprumut. E limpede chiar \u0219i pentru un analfabet c\u0103 un asemenea scenariu are s\u0103 conduc\u0103 spre un deznod\u0103m\u00e2nt tragic. Da, ei fac banii, da, ei au tiparni\u021ba, dar la un moment dat mai trebuie s\u0103 ai \u0219i leg\u0103tur\u0103 cu logica \u0219i bunul sim\u021b, altfel te interneaz\u0103 la nebuni.<\/p>\n

Este, \u00eens\u0103, \u0219i mai interesant\u0103 panoramarea situa\u021biei statelor aflate sub ocupa\u021bia SUA. Recent, Macron spunea c\u0103 \u201er\u0103zboiul din Ucraina este unul existen\u021bial pentru Europa<\/i>\u201d. De fapt, declara\u021bia sa e una incomplet\u0103, \u00eentruc\u00e2t papagalul francez nu se refer\u0103 la Europa pe care o \u0219tim, ci la Europa aflat\u0103 sub ocupa\u021bie american\u0103. Pentru aceast\u0103 Europ\u0103 \u0219i paia\u021bele puse la butoane, zilele sunt num\u0103rate.<\/p>\n

Contextul e unul extrem de complicat, noi fiind acum \u00eentr-un adev\u0103rat \u201esuper-moment Minsky\u201d. Citeam undeva \u201edescifrarea\u201d miracolului economic german: 200 de miliarde de EUR – reprezent\u00e2nd pre\u021bul gazului rusesc – se transformau \u00een peste 2 trilioane, un leverage de peste 100, mai mare chiar dec\u00e2t cel al Lehman Brothers. Un alt exemplu: chip-urile taiwaneze. \u00cen sine, industria chip-urilor are un leverage enorm, doar c\u0103, dac\u0103 mergem pe linia de distribu\u021bie, constat\u0103m un fenomen interesant: chip-urile respective sunt exportate \u00een SUA, unde sunt \u00eempachetate \u00een rachete \u0219i alte arme cu o valoare ad\u0103ugat\u0103 de 100 de ori mai mare. Ne rezult\u0103 pe \u00eentreg lan\u021bul un leverge de peste 10 000, ceea ce e imens.<\/p>\n

Privind valorile de neimaginat pentru un om simplu, \u00een\u021belege\u021bi limpede de ce milioanele au crescut \u00een miliarde, miliardele \u00een trilioane, \u0219irul p\u0103r\u00e2nd a nu mai fi limitat de absolut nimic. Nici m\u0103car de bunul sim\u021b! Orice om normal se \u00eentreab\u0103 c\u00e2t mai poate dura nebunia. Nu trebuie \u00eens\u0103 s\u0103 te \u00eentrebi, ci s\u0103 consta\u021bi. Economia german\u0103 a fost distrus\u0103 programatic printr-o agresiune fizic\u0103, la fel cum Japonia\u00a0 fost distrus\u0103 printr-o agresiune monetar\u0103. Acordul Plaza ini\u021biat de James Baker a depreciat dolarul, duc\u00e2nd economia japonez\u0103 \u00eentr-o spiral\u0103 nefast\u0103 din care nu a ie\u0219it nici \u00een prezent. Distrugerea conductelor ruse\u0219ti de gaz are un efect chiar mai devastator asupra economiei germane. Mi\u0219carea de rupere a Germaniei (\u0219i a Europei \u00een general) de Rusia are nu at\u00e2t o miz\u0103 militar\u0103 c\u00e2t, mai ales, una economic\u0103. Dincolo de evitarea \u201escenariului groazei\u201d – pe care vi-l voi prezenta pu\u021bin mai t\u00e2rziu – mult prea h\u0103mesita SUA a urm\u0103rit inclusiv mutarea unor componente economice europene pe teritoriul s\u0103u pentru cre\u0219terea \u00een competitivitate a propriei economii. Privit din punct de vedere al Occidentului \u00een \u00eentregul s\u0103u, ac\u021biunea echivaleaz\u0103 cu cea a unui om care \u00eencepe prin a-\u0219i t\u0103ia un picior pe care \u0219i-l g\u0103te\u0219te pentru c\u0103-i e foame. Din punctul de vedere al SUA, mi\u0219carea este, \u00eens\u0103, privit\u0103 ca o jefuire a unei colonii, opera\u021biune justificat\u0103<\/i>\u00a0din punct de vedere moral de o \u00eentreag\u0103 istorie de piraterie.<\/p>\n

Rezultatul, privind strict din punct de vedere economic, nu a fost cel scontat \u00een SUA. \u00cens\u0103 efectul din Europa e de-a dreptul devastator. Cre\u0219terea economic\u0103 a SUA e una anemic\u0103, for\u021bat\u0103, \u00een timp ce nivelul de trai \u0219i coeziunea social\u0103 s-au pr\u0103bu\u0219it la cote greu de imaginat.\u00a0\u201eDac\u0103 nu-\u021bi convine \u00een Occident, mut\u0103-te \u00een Rusia sau \u00een China!\u201d<\/i>\u00a0– url\u0103 propagandi\u0219tii de fiecare dat\u0103 c\u00e2nd le ar\u0103t realitatea. Tembelismul zicerii lor const\u0103 \u00eentr-un complex istoric deoarece lumea \u00eenc\u0103 are impresia c\u0103 acolo se tr\u0103ie\u0219te cum se tr\u0103ia pe vremuri. Dac\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 dai o tur\u0103 prin Rusia consta\u021bi cu stupoare c\u0103 nivelul de trai al lor e net superior celui al nostru,\u00a0iar via\u021ba e mult mai vibrant\u0103. China e un \u0219oc pentru orice occidental care, asemeni olteanului din banc, spune la fa\u021ba locului c\u0103 \u201ea\u0219a ceva nu se esixt\u0103<\/i>\u201d.<\/p>\n

SUA, \u00een continuare, e cea mai mare putere militar\u0103 a lumii. \u00cens\u0103 statutul i-a sc\u0103zut deoarece nu mai e sus\u021binut\u0103 de economie. A\u0219a au p\u0103\u021bit toate imperiile. \u0218i-au p\u0103strat armata p\u00e2n\u0103 c\u00e2nd aceasta a f\u0103cut implozie. La fel e \u0219i cu americanii. De aceea, dup\u0103 disperarea canibaliz\u0103rii teritoriilor aflate sub ocupa\u021bie, \u0219i-ar dori s\u0103 revin\u0103 la Cortina de Fier. Lumea, \u00eens\u0103, repet, nu mai e la fel. Deja Viktor Orban a refuzat public \u0219i ap\u0103sat, iar \u00een spatele s\u0103u se adun\u0103 inclusiv \u201ecorec\u021bii politic<\/i>\u201d din Polonia sau Cehia. Asta \u00een timp ce, la nivelul publicului larg, narativul american e definitiv picat.<\/p>\n

De fapt, toat\u0103 scamatoria r\u0103zboiului din Ucraina a avut o miz\u0103 unic\u0103: aceea de a rupe Europa de Rusia \u0219i, indirect, de China. O cooperare economic\u0103 str\u00e2ns\u0103 Euro-Ruso-Chinez\u0103 ar fi condus la un PIB mai mult dec\u00e2t dublu fa\u021b\u0103 de SUA, arunc\u00e2nd \u0219i mai mult \u00een derizoriu fantasma yankeilor \u0219i acceler\u00e2ndu-le definitiv dezastrul. Pentru a fr\u00e2na tendin\u021ba natural\u0103, americanii au abuzat de cei doi vectori pe care-i controleaz\u0103: cel monetar \u0219i cel militar. Este suficient? Desigur, nu!<\/p>\n

De altfel, \u00eentr-un scenariu de co\u0219mar pentru ei, abuzul de vectorii enumera\u021bi a condus la o sl\u0103bire \u0219i mai mare a puterilor proprii. Din punct de vedere militar, se vede limpede cum Rusia singur\u0103 a reu\u0219it s\u0103 combat\u0103 absolut toate provoc\u0103rile tembele ale SUA. Armele despre care americanii spuneau c\u0103 vor fi \u201eterminatoare<\/i> pentru Rusia\u201d s-au dovedit a fi bluf-uri teribile. Sta\u021biile Patriot s-au f\u0103cut de r\u00e2s \u00een \u00eencercarea penibil\u0103 de a d\u0103r\u00e2ma drone iraniene de o mie de ori mai ieftine dec\u00e2t proiectilul cu care se tr\u0103gea \u00een ele. Toate armele \u201ede ultim\u0103 genera\u021bie\u201d au fost anihilate, iar tancurile Abrams s-au dovedit chiar mai penibile dec\u00e2t Leopard-urile nem\u021be\u0219ti, ceea ce e aproape de neimaginat!<\/p>\n

\u00cens\u0103, de-a dreptul interesant este ceea ce se petrece la nivel monetar. Aici e o adev\u0103rat\u0103 revolu\u021bie, remarcat\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 dinainte de conflictul din Ucraina de macroeconomistul Zoltan Pozsar: se trece iremediabil de la un schimb dolaro-centric la unul multi-monetar. Toat\u0103 lumea e cu ochii pe structura rezervelor \u0219i caut\u0103 s\u0103 vad\u0103 c\u00e2nd va deveni dolarul irelevant din punct de vedere al de\u021binerilor. Problema e c\u0103 acest mod de a privi lucrurile e \u00een\u0219el\u0103tor deoarece pia\u021ba schimburilor interna\u021bionale se modific\u0103 structural!<\/p>\n

Prin arhitectura liniilor de swap, chinezii au\u00a0produs, f\u0103r\u0103 s\u0103 vrea, o adev\u0103rat\u0103 revolu\u021bie \u00een comer\u021bul interna\u021bional. Motivul e banal: \u00een acest fel\u00a0yuanul a devenit moned\u0103 de schimb f\u0103r\u0103 a fi obligatoriu nevoie s\u0103 fie utilizat\u0103 ca moned\u0103 de rezerv\u0103<\/b>. A\u0219adar, te treze\u0219ti c\u0103 folose\u0219ti yuanul ca mediu de schimb f\u0103r\u0103 ca, \u00een realitate, s\u0103 fii con\u0219tient de asta. Turcul care cump\u0103r\u0103 de pe pia\u021ba chinez\u0103, cump\u0103r\u0103 \u00een lire turce\u0219ti, la fel ca rusul care cump\u0103r\u0103 pl\u0103tind \u00een ruble. Toate acestea \u00eens\u0103 sunt guvernate de liniile de swap aprobate \u00eentre statele respective. Ceea ce au f\u0103cut chinezii, au preluat \u0219i ru\u0219ii, stabilind propriile rela\u021bii bilaterale \u0219i linii de swap \u00een care rubla devine mediul de schimb. \u0218i uite-a\u0219a se trece de la o lume unipolar\u0103 din punct de vedere monetar la una absolut multipolar\u0103. Iar c\u00e2nd mediul este dublat de tehnologii instant de decontare, practic business-ul se accelereaz\u0103.<\/p>\n

Mul\u021bi cred c\u0103 instrumentele prezentate sunt apanajul \u021b\u0103rilor \u201erevoltate\u201d. E fals! Un exemplu, pe care l-am mai dat de at\u00e2tea ori, este \u00een\u021belegerea dintre statele Asiei de Sud-Est prin care \u00ee\u0219i deconteaz\u0103 instant tranzac\u021biile \u00een monedele proprii, ocolind astfel total dolarul. \u00cen aceast\u0103 situa\u021bie ocolirea monedei americane se face nu pentru c\u0103 acele \u021b\u0103ri ar avea probleme politice cu SUA, ci din cauza faptului c\u0103 proxy-ul reprezentat de dolar a devenit o fr\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een derularea tranzac\u021biilor. SWIFT-ul a fost o revolu\u021bie atunci c\u00e2nd a ap\u0103rut, dar s\u0103 nu uit\u0103m c\u0103 a fost o revolu\u021bie a secolului trecut. Acum altfel circul\u0103 banii \u0219i m\u0103rfurile, iar structura centralizat\u0103 a SWIFT \u00eel face s\u0103 par\u0103 azi un mediu anchilozat, scump \u0219i imposibil de adaptat prezentului.<\/p>\n

Concluzion\u00e2nd, putem spune c\u0103 ceea ce vedem e\u00a0travaliul deconstruc\u021biei puterii militare americane<\/i>. Dup\u0103 ce au pierdut primatul economic, americanii caut\u0103 s\u0103-\u0219i men\u021bin\u0103 suprema\u021bia prin intermediul armatei. Toate imperiile au f\u0103cut la fel. \u0218i asta p\u00e2n\u0103 c\u00e2nd nota de plat\u0103 pentru\u00a0serviciile<\/i>\u00a0militare\u00a0<\/i>\u0219i corup\u021bia din spate generat\u0103 de p\u0103duchii sistemului a devenit at\u00e2t de mare \u00eenc\u00e2t toat\u0103 taraba s-a pr\u0103bu\u0219it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com Ieri am promis c\u0103 o s\u0103 v\u0103 povestesc ceva mai multe despre lipsa de fundamente a strategiei occidentale. Pentru americani, strategia dezbin\u0103rii e una c\u00e2t se poate de clasic\u0103. De altfel, \u201estrategia evit\u0103rii\u201d a fost o constant\u0103 a politicii lor externe. Motivul e c\u00e2t se poate […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1799,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[270,32,4],"tags":[936,677,1416,419,1417,235,1414,1409,1332,1410,167,1415,872,1411,1412,207,1375,1413,653,105,833,1420,102,821,1418,1301,420,12,184,245,495,1419],"class_list":["post-1798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-externe","category-opinii","category-stil_de_viata","tag-cehia","tag-china","tag-cortina-de-fier","tag-dan-diaconu","tag-decuplarea-europei-de-rusia","tag-dezbinare","tag-economia-germaniei","tag-economia-sua","tag-emmanuel-macron","tag-europa-sub-ocupatie-americana","tag-imprumuturi-de-stat","tag-james-baker","tag-japonia","tag-lehman-brothers","tag-microchips-made-in-taiwan","tag-polonia","tag-productia-de-chip-uri","tag-productie-de-armament","tag-razboi-economic","tag-razboi-ucraina","tag-sistemul-patriot","tag-sistemul-swift","tag-sua","tag-taiwan","tag-tancuri-abrams","tag-tancuri-leopard","tag-trenduri-economice","tag-ue","tag-ungaria","tag-viktor-orban","tag-yuan","tag-zoltan-pozsar"],"yoast_head":"\nCum se schimb\u0103 fundamentele lumii. Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1798\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cum se schimb\u0103 fundamentele lumii. Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com Ieri am promis c\u0103 o s\u0103 v\u0103 povestesc ceva mai multe despre lipsa de fundamente a strategiei occidentale. Pentru americani, strategia dezbin\u0103rii e una c\u00e2t se poate de clasic\u0103. De altfel, \u201estrategia evit\u0103rii\u201d a fost o constant\u0103 a politicii lor externe. 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