{"id":1928,"date":"2024-03-25T19:00:53","date_gmt":"2024-03-25T19:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1928"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:47:37","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:47:37","slug":"o-dramoleta-electrica-opinia-lui-dan-diaconu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1928","title":{"rendered":"O dramolet\u0103 electric\u0103. Opinia lui Dan Diaconu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

M\u0103 g\u00e2ndeam s\u0103 schimb ni\u0219te ma\u0219ini \u0219i am mers \u00een t\u00e2rg s\u0103 v\u0103d ce op\u021biuni a\u0219 avea. Am constatat stupefiat c\u0103, de fiecare dat\u0103, dealerii scot prima dat\u0103 la b\u0103taie chestii de neales: ba hibrid, ba hibrid full, ba electric. Unii produc\u0103tori nici m\u0103car nu mai au \u00een ofert\u0103 altceva dec\u00e2t hibrid. Culmea, asta se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 inclusiv pe segmentul cel mai sensibil\u00a0 la pre\u021buri: clasa medie. Este, de departe, cea mai mare agresiune la adresa mobilit\u0103\u021bii oamenilor.<\/p>\n

M\u0103 surprinde \u00eens\u0103 c\u0103 \u0219i segmentul de lux este burdu\u0219it ideologic. P\u00e2n\u0103 s\u0103 ajungi \u00een fa\u021ba unei variante normale e\u0219ti plimbat prin tot felul de abera\u021bii\u00a0\u201efull electrice\u201d<\/i> bune de nimic. La un moment dat, aproape enervat, l-am \u00eentrebat pe b\u0103ie\u021belul care-mi tot toroc\u0103nea \u00eencrez\u0103tor \u00een \u201eviitor\u201d dac\u0103 m\u0103 vede pe mine alerg\u00e2nd prin parc\u0103rile supermarketurilor c\u0103ut\u00e2nd s\u0103-mi \u00eencarc ma\u0219ina.\u00a0\u201eDar pute\u021bi s\u0103 v\u0103 pune\u021bi \u00eenc\u0103rc\u0103tor acas\u0103\u201d\u00a0<\/i>-mi-a spus el \u00eencrez\u0103tor.\u00a0\u201eOK, \u0219i c\u00e2nd am chef s\u0103 ajung \u00een Italia m\u00e2ine, \u00een c\u00e2te zile fac drumul \u0103sta? \u00cemi dai \u0219i-o list\u0103 a supermarketurilor unde, eventual, s\u0103-mi cump\u0103r salam pe care s\u0103-l m\u0103n\u00e2nc pe capota ma\u0219inii \u00een timp ce se \u00eencarc\u0103?\u201d<\/i>. M\u0103 rog, dac\u0103 ar fi s\u0103 fim logici, atunci c\u00e2nd vine vorba de ma\u0219ini electrice, nu-mi dau seama dac\u0103 mai e vreo op\u021biune logic\u0103 de luat \u00een seam\u0103 \u00een afara ma\u0219inilor chineze\u0219ti. Nu m\u0103 contrazice\u021bi c\u0103 \u0219tiu bine ce vorbesc!<\/p>\n

Dar nu acesta e subiectul. Am fost curios s\u0103 \u00een\u021beleg fenomenul care mie mi s-a p\u0103rut absolut aberant. Dar, s\u0103 nu anticip\u0103m \u0219i s\u0103 l\u0103s\u0103m lucrurile s\u0103 decurg\u0103 natural! Un raport al Rocky Mountain Institute (o institu\u021bie tefelist\u0103 care, \u00eenc\u0103 de prin anii 80, merge pe narativul \u201eenergiei curate\u201d) estima \u00een toamna anului trecut c\u0103 autovehiculele electrice vor fi la fel de ieftine precum cele pe combustibili clasici p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2030. Frumos, ce s\u0103 spun! Doar c\u0103 tefeleii americani par r\u0103ma\u0219i \u00een urm\u0103, deoarece englezii de la University of Exeter\u00a0au dat publicit\u0103\u021bii tot atunci un alt studiu \u00een care estimau c\u0103 autovehiculele electrice vor fi la fel de ieftine ca cele cu combustibili clasici \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu … 2024!!! M\u0103 uitam a\u0219a, cu mil\u0103, la b\u0103ie\u021ba\u0219ul \u0103la pe care amicul meu mi-l aruncase \u00een fa\u021b\u0103 s\u0103 \u201enegocieze\u201d; c\u00e2nd l-am \u00eentrebat de ce ma\u0219ina aia electric\u0103 e dubl\u0103 la pre\u021b fa\u021b\u0103 de cea clasic\u0103 mi-a b\u00e2nguit ceva de \u201etehnologia viitorului<\/i>\u201d. Amice, dar eu circul \u00een prezent, nu \u00een viitor. \u00cen viitor e posibil ca tembelii de la butoane s\u0103 considere c\u0103 o mas\u0103 \u00eendestul\u0103toare const\u0103 \u00een zece buc\u0103\u021bi de chips-uri de creve\u021bi vietnamezi. Asta nu \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 trebuie s\u0103 m\u0103n\u00e2nc de-acum! \u0218i, \u00een plus, iat\u0103, m\u0103 a\u0219teptam ca previziunile englezilor s\u0103 se \u00eendeplineasc\u0103, adic\u0103 s\u0103-mi iau o electric\u0103 la pre\u021b de \u201ed-aia murdar\u0103<\/i>\u201d. Niet, tovar\u0103\u0219i!, dar trebuie s\u0103 recunosc c\u0103 s-au f\u0103cut ceva progrese \u00een direc\u021bia asta: pre\u021bul ma\u0219inilor normale a s\u0103rit bini\u0219or cu 30%-50%. Probabil, din dorin\u021ba de a face posibil c\u00e2t mai rapid \u201eviitorul<\/i>\u201d.<\/p>\n

Un sondaj al JD Power de prin 2021 estima c\u0103 peste 80% dintre cei care-\u0219i cump\u0103raser\u0103 un autovehicul electric inten\u021bioneaz\u0103 s\u0103-\u0219i achizi\u021bioneze tot un vehicul electric atunci c\u00e2nd se vor hot\u0103r\u00ee s\u0103 schimbe ma\u0219ina. \u00cen toamna lui 2023, \u00eens\u0103, un alt studiu efectual de S&P Global Mobility dezv\u0103luia c\u0103 aproximativ jum\u0103tate dintre posesorii de vehicule electrice \u00ee\u0219i doresc s\u0103 se \u00eentoarc\u0103 la vehiculele cu combustibili clasici. Asta se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 \u00een ciuda publicit\u0103\u021bii excesive, a narativului oficial clamat pe to\u021bi pere\u021bii \u0219i chiar a falsei crize de automobile clasice. Ce s-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat \u00eentre timp? Simplu: oamenii \u00eencep s\u0103 se dezmeticeasc\u0103 \u0219i s\u0103 \u00een\u021beleag\u0103 c\u0103 e o alt\u0103 \u021beap\u0103 monumental\u0103. \u0218i mai e o statistic\u0103 \u021binut\u0103 departe de ochii publicului: doar 4% din posesorii de vehicule electrice nu au \u00een posesie \u0219i o ma\u0219in\u0103 cu combustibil clasic!!! \u00cen\u021belege\u021bi? 96% dintre proprietarii de electrice au \u0219i o ma\u0219in\u0103 normal\u0103, utilizat\u0103 probabil pentru deplas\u0103rile pe distan\u021be mari!<\/p>\n

De fapt, \u00eencepe s\u0103 se vad\u0103 o ad\u00e2ncire din ce \u00een ce mai mare \u00eentre oamenii simpli \u0219i guverne (prin \u201eguverne\u201d \u00een\u021beleg\u00e2nd ideologia impus\u0103 de acestea). V\u00e2nz\u0103rile de autovehicule electrice au picat \u00een decembrie anul trecut cu 30% (YoY). Asta \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care, pentru a se raporta \u201eprogrese la hectar\u201d, \u00een aceast\u0103 categorie au fost introduse \u0219i hibridele. \u0218mecheria care se face este aceea c\u0103 hibridele sunt v\u00e2ndute ca \u201ema\u0219ini economice\u201d \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care – spun v\u00e2nz\u0103torii – \u00ee\u021bi recuperezi banii suplimentari prin reducerea consumului de carburant. Ceea ce e o minciun\u0103 \u00eentruc\u00e2t acea reducere exist\u0103 doar \u00een testele mincinoase, f\u0103cute special pentru a impulsiona sc\u0103derea de consum a acestor autovehicule. \u00cen realitate, o asemenea ma\u0219in\u0103 rar consum\u0103 mai pu\u021bin dec\u00e2t una clasic\u0103 deoarece e \u00eenvins\u0103 de logic\u0103. Ma\u0219ina hibrid\u0103 are o mas\u0103 substan\u021bial mai mare (motorul electric \u0219i bateria aproape dubleaz\u0103 masa ma\u0219inii), astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t \u201eeconomia\u201d realizat\u0103 de preluarea v\u00e2rfurilor de sarcin\u0103 de c\u0103tre modulul electric este anulat\u0103 de cre\u0219terea masei ma\u0219inii. Am spus-o de at\u00e2tea ori: eficien\u021ba se ob\u021bine atunci c\u00e2nd o ma\u0219in\u0103 are o mas\u0103 mai mic\u0103 sau egal\u0103 dec\u00e2t cea a \u00eenc\u0103rc\u0103turii transportate. La ora actual\u0103 vehiculele cu care ne m\u00e2ndrim au o mas\u0103 de 20-30 de ori mai mare dec\u00e2t cea a \u0219oferului. Tehnologia electric\u0103 m\u0103re\u0219te \u0219i mai mult aceast\u0103 mas\u0103 excedentar\u0103, ajung\u00e2ndu-se la o ineficien\u021b\u0103 strig\u0103toare la cer.<\/p>\n

Partea interesant\u0103 e dat\u0103 de faptul c\u0103 \u00een Europa factorii de decizie au hot\u0103r\u00e2t s\u0103 impun\u0103 tiranic electrificarea transportului. Lumea nu vrea, iar asta se vede cu ochiul liber pe pia\u021ba ma\u0219inilor la m\u00e2na a doua, unde pre\u021burile cresc. De ce? Pentru c\u0103, \u00een loc s\u0103-\u021bi iei o ma\u0219in\u0103 nou\u0103 electric\u0103 pe care nu ai cui s\u0103 o revinzi, mai bine iei o ma\u0219in\u0103 clasic\u0103 la un pre\u021b mai mic, care oricum \u00ee\u0219i conserv\u0103 ceva mai bine valoarea (\u0219i asta, \u00een ciuda riscului unor repara\u021bii suplimentare). E un joc de a\u0219teptare \u00een care va fi interesant de v\u0103zut cine se va arunca primul. Companiile sper\u0103 c\u0103 factorul politic le va rezolva problema oblig\u00e2ndu-i pe oameni s\u0103 cumpere junk-urile scumpe, \u00een timp ce oamenii refuz\u0103. Doar c\u0103 jocul nu poate continua la infinit deoarece, la un moment dat, va fi nevoie s\u0103 se fac\u0103 curat. Cum?<\/p>\n

Nu \u0219tiu dac\u0103 a\u021bi auzit de Stephen Scherr. Este fostul CEO al companiei de \u00eenchirieri Herz, cel care a decis \u00een 2021 c\u0103 e cazul s\u0103 electrifice compania cump\u0103r\u00e2nd zeci de mii de vehicule electrice (gurile rele spun c\u0103 ar fi vorba de 100 000 de Tesla!!!) pentru a \u201ebeneficia\u201d de subven\u021bionarea masiv\u0103 a acestora. Doar c\u0103, \u00een ciuda subven\u021biei, pre\u021bul era tot exagerat de mare. \u0218i nu doar pre\u021bul a fost problema, ci \u0219i cererea anemic\u0103 de astfel de vehicule. Clien\u021bii, pur \u0219i simplu, au refuzat oferta de electrice. \u00cen plus, \u00een doar doi ani, costurile cu repara\u021biile acestor vehicule au s\u0103rit la cer. \u00cen disperare de cauz\u0103, compania a \u00eencercat s\u0103 le v\u00e2nd\u0103 \u0219i, \u00eentruc\u00e2t n-a reu\u0219it, le-a sc\u0103zut pre\u021bul la extrem, rezult\u00e2nd de-aici o pagub\u0103 de toat\u0103 frumuse\u021bea.<\/p>\n

Pentru cei care nu \u0219tiu, business-ul \u00een domeniul \u00eenchirierilor de ma\u0219ini are dou\u0103 surse principale de venit. Veniturile din \u00eenchirieri \u0219i servicii adi\u021bionale \u00eenchirierilor le-a\u021bi intuit, cu siguran\u021b\u0103. \u00cens\u0103, esen\u021biale sunt veniturile rezultate din rev\u00e2nzarea ma\u0219inilor. E o \u0219mecherie aici: acest tip de companii achizi\u021bioneaz\u0103 multe ma\u0219ini odat\u0103, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t produc\u0103torii auto se bat s\u0103-i c\u00e2\u0219tige de clien\u021bi. Pentru aceasta fac reduceri substan\u021biale. Astfel, o firm\u0103 de \u00eenchirieri achizi\u021bioneaz\u0103 componente \u00eentregi din flota sa la pre\u021buri de vis pentru cump\u0103r\u0103torul retail. Discount-urile uzuale se situeaz\u0103 \u00eentre 10% \u0219i 30%, dar, \u00een unele cazuri, se poate ajunge chiar la 50%. Depinde, desigur, de m\u0103rimea comenzii.<\/p>\n

Pe perioada \u00een care \u00eenchiriaz\u0103 ma\u0219ina, compania are un venit de 30%-40% din pre\u021bul ma\u0219inii. Asta \u00een 12-18 luni, c\u00e2t este timpul mediu de \u201ep\u0103strare\u201d a unei ma\u0219ini. Dup\u0103 aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103 vehiculele sunt rev\u00e2ndute, iar companiile \u00ee\u0219i marcheaz\u0103 profituri babane. Sixt, spre exemplu, a raportat un profit de 32% din acest tip de opera\u021biuni. Interesant, nu-i a\u0219a?<\/p>\n

Acum \u00een\u021belege\u021bi de ce ceea ce s-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat la Herz a fost un dezastru pe linie. Nu doar c\u0103 au achizi\u021bionat scump \u00een draci vehiculele respective, dar nici nu au avut cerere pentru ele (adic\u0103 le-au picat veniturile din \u00eenchirieri \u0219i servicii adi\u021bionale) \u0219i au fost nevoi\u021bi s\u0103 le v\u00e2nd\u0103 \u00een pierdere (pierz\u00e2nd \u0219i din aceast\u0103 component\u0103). Banii lua\u021bi de pe Teslele v\u00e2ndute i-au reinvestit \u00een ma\u0219ini normale, sper\u00e2nd s\u0103 mai recupereze clasic<\/i> din pagube. Desigur, CEO-ul falimentar \u0219i-a pierdut func\u021bia, dar n-ar trebui s\u0103-i pl\u00e2nge\u021bi de mil\u0103 deoarece pentru \u201eminunea\u201d sa a fost recompensat cu aproximativ 182 milioane de dolari, fiind al treilea cel mai bine pl\u0103tit CEO din lume (dup\u0103 Stephen Schwarzman de la Blackstone \u0219i Sundar Pichai de la Google\/Alphabet).<\/p>\n

Fenomenele expuse m\u0103 fac s\u0103 cred c\u0103, \u00een scurt timp, industria auto european\u0103 va face implozie. \u0218i-a\u0219a companiile au aruncat la gunoi inginerii de motoare termice, angaj\u00e2nd IT-i\u0219ti \u00een locul lor \u0219i miz\u00e2nd totul pe noua mod\u0103. Cu toate c\u0103 nu v\u0103 va veni s\u0103 crede\u021bi, a mai fost o perioad\u0103 similar\u0103 \u00een anii 70-80. \u0218i-atunci, cuprin\u0219i de \u201eteama celor zece ani \u00een care va disp\u0103rea petrolul<\/i>\u201d(o alt\u0103 minciun\u0103 globalist\u0103 care a f\u0103cut carier\u0103), politicienii au decis s\u0103 impulsioneze pia\u021ba transportului electrificat. La un moment dat, \u00een centrul unor ora\u0219e italiene s-a decis inclusiv interzicerea ma\u0219inilor clasice. La fel ca \u0219i azi, centrele de \u00eenchirieri ofereau ma\u0219ini electrice pe care atunci nici m\u0103car nu aveai unde s\u0103 le \u00eencarci. A rezultat o pierdere teribil\u0103 pentru produc\u0103torii auto. Iaca, acum politicienii au mers ceva mai departe, \u00eemping\u00e2nd nebunia la cote infinit mai mari. De obicei, din acest gen de combina\u021bie una dintre p\u0103r\u021bi iese \u00een daun\u0103 total\u0103.<\/p>\n

Dac\u0103 politicienii vor decide s\u0103 blocheze total produc\u021bia de ma\u0219ini termice, atunci dauna se va \u00eenregistra \u00een buzunarul consumatorului. Care consumator, fiind oricum cam pr\u0103jit la buzunare, s-ar putea s\u0103 se re\u00eentoarc\u0103 la paradigma de transport a Chinei comuniste din anii 60 – bicicleta. Oricum, rasa tefelist\u0103 nu prea mai \u00eendr\u0103ge\u0219te ma\u0219ina deoarece asta i-a fost educa\u021bia. Deci, rezult\u0103 c\u0103 \u0219i pe \u201emodul tiranic\u201d vom vedea tot pierderi masive pentru produc\u0103tori. Nu spun c\u0103 metoda tiranic\u0103 va pica din prima, dar, cu siguran\u021b\u0103, va contracta teribil pia\u021ba. Iar asta va conduce la o nou\u0103 deteriorare economic\u0103 \u00eentruc\u00e2t efectul de multiplicare al industriei auto va sc\u0103dea geometric. \u0218i uite-a\u0219a se va ajunge la ciocnirea cu capul de zidul realit\u0103\u021bii.<\/p>\n

Poate v\u0103 g\u00e2ndi\u021bi c\u0103 nu e posibil ca factorii de decizie s\u0103 fie at\u00e2t de incon\u0219tien\u021bi. Gre\u0219i\u021bi! \u00cen realitate, to\u021bi sunt tributari credin\u021bei \u00een \u201emarea descoperire\u201d care va dezl\u0103n\u021bui tehnologia electric\u0103. Dar care-i acea descoperire? Desigur, una care s\u0103 creasc\u0103 densitatea energetic\u0103 a bateriilor. Se poate asta? Nu \u0219tiu ce s\u0103 zic. Unii spun c\u0103 fizica ar avea ceva \u00eempotriv\u0103, dar ne mai lu\u0103m de la chestii at\u00e2t de banale?<\/p>\n

P.S. Imaginea care \u00eenso\u021be\u0219te articolul am luat-o de la\u00a0un clip video<\/a>\u00a0deosebit de interesant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com M\u0103 g\u00e2ndeam s\u0103 schimb ni\u0219te ma\u0219ini \u0219i am mers \u00een t\u00e2rg s\u0103 v\u0103d ce op\u021biuni a\u0219 avea. Am constatat stupefiat c\u0103, de fiecare dat\u0103, dealerii scot prima dat\u0103 la b\u0103taie chestii de neales: ba hibrid, ba hibrid full, ba electric. Unii produc\u0103tori nici m\u0103car nu mai […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1929,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,4],"tags":[1698,677,358,419,1701,1687,584,312,1695,1693,1700,1691,181,1688,985,1686,1689,1692,1696,1694,1697,1699,1566,1204,1567,392,420,12,1690],"class_list":["post-1928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinii","category-stil_de_viata","tag-blackstone","tag-china","tag-comunism-de-scoala-noua","tag-dan-diaconu","tag-dauna-totala","tag-full-electric","tag-google","tag-green-deal","tag-herz","tag-ideologie-climatista","tag-industria-auto-europeana","tag-jd-power","tag-libertatea-de-miscare","tag-made-in-china","tag-masini-electrice","tag-masini-hibride","tag-rocky-mountain-institute","tag-sp-global-mobility","tag-sixt","tag-stephen-scherr","tag-stephen-schwarzman","tag-sundar-pichai","tag-tefelism-tflism","tag-tesla","tag-tfl-tinerii-frumosi-si-liberi","tag-tiranie","tag-trenduri-economice","tag-ue","tag-university-of-exeter"],"yoast_head":"\nO dramolet\u0103 electric\u0103. 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