{"id":1940,"date":"2024-03-26T06:28:43","date_gmt":"2024-03-26T06:28:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1940"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:47:37","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:47:37","slug":"rai-vs-iad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1940","title":{"rendered":"Rai vs iad?"},"content":{"rendered":"

de Dan Diaconu<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\n
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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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 <\/p>\n

\"atempo<\/a><\/div>\n

S\u0103 \u00eencepem cu c\u00e2teva constat\u0103ri de-a dreptul \u0219ocante. Prima este cea legat\u0103 de concentrarea pie\u021bei americane de capital. Pentru cei care nu \u0219tiu, acesta este un indicator al \u201epolariz\u0103rii pie\u021bei\u201d, ar\u0103t\u00e2ndu-ne c\u00e2t din capitalizare este concentrat\u0103 \u00een dreptul celor mai mari companii listate. \u00cen anii 90, primele zece companii listate cumulau doar 15% din capitalizarea total\u0103 a pie\u021bei. \u00cen 2023 valoarea respectiv\u0103 a atins 28%. Practic s-a dublat!<\/p>\n

\u00cens\u0103, ceea ce e \u0219i mai \u0219ocant, vedem \u00een graficul al\u0103turat(eviden\u021biat de Goldman \u00eentr-un material publicat s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103). Ca s\u0103-l \u00een\u021belege\u021bi ave\u021bi nevoie de c\u00e2teva\u00a0 explica\u021bii suplimentare. No\u021biunea de baz\u0103 a acestui grafic este a\u0219a-numita \u201epercentil\u0103 75\u201d. \u00cen cazul de fa\u021b\u0103 este vorba de punctul \u00een care 75% dintre companii au capitalizarea mai mic\u0103 dec\u00e2t societatea situat\u0103 la percentila 75, iar 25% dintre companii au o capitalizare mai mare dec\u00e2t aceasta.\u00a0Ei bine, graficul prezint\u0103 capitalizarea celei mai mari companii din indicele S&P 500 fa\u021b\u0103 de compania aflat\u0103 la \u201epercentila 75\u201d. Este un grafic istoric, av\u00e2nd date \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu 1925! Dup\u0103 cum limpede pute\u021bi observa, \u00een prezent compania cu cea mai mare capitalizare este de 750 de ori mai mare dec\u00e2t compania de la percentila 75! Ca s\u0103 ave\u021bi o reprezentare a dimensiunii, tot pe grafic pute\u021bi observa c\u0103 la momentul Bulei Dot-Com valoarea indicatorului era de 511, iar \u00een timpul Marii Crize din 1929-1930 ajunsese la … 728, adic\u0103 sub actuala valoare. Suntem, de departe, \u00een cea mai mare nebunie din istorie.<\/p>\n

Tot ca o oglind\u0103 a mega-concentr\u0103rii de care avem parte, este relevant un alt indicator care ne spune c\u0103 10% dintre ac\u021biunile listate pe pie\u021bele de capital americane au 75% din \u00eentreaga pia\u021b\u0103. E colosal. De altfel, toat\u0103 lumea a v\u0103zut limpede cum \u00eentregul tractor al pie\u021bei americane e reprezentat de c\u00e2teva companii care tot cresc la un nivel absolut nebunesc!<\/p>\n

Treaba devine \u0219i mai interesant\u0103 dac\u0103 punem \u00eentreaga imagine \u201eincitant\u0103\u201d a pie\u021bei de capital din SUA \u00een oglind\u0103 cu finan\u021bele acestei \u021b\u0103ri. Probabil vor fi unii care-mi vor spune c\u0103 \u00een SUA o asemenea compara\u021bie nu-\u0219i are sensul deoarece companiile sunt total separate de stat. Hmm, dac\u0103 a\u0219 fi r\u0103ut\u0103cios a\u0219 ar\u0103ta cu degetul c\u0103tre marile companii tehnologice care cenzurau \u00een vremea pandemiei exact a\u0219a cum le cerea statul \u0219i f\u0103r\u0103 s\u0103-\u0219i pun\u0103 prea multe \u00eentreb\u0103ri. Dar chiar \u0219i f\u0103r\u0103 argumentul anterior, trebuie s\u0103 fim con\u0219tien\u021bi c\u0103 stabilitatea economiilor \u00een general \u0219i, automat, a companiilor, depinde direct de s\u0103n\u0103tatea financiar\u0103 a unui stat. De aceea compara\u021bia nu e absolut deloc lipsit\u0103 de fundament.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"atempo1<\/a><\/div>\n

Wall Street Journal ne deschide o perspectiv\u0103 interesant\u0103 \u00eentr-un\u00a0articol<\/a>\u00a0publicat \u00een urm\u0103 cu dou\u0103 zile. De fapt, cel mai \u0219ocant este graficul care deschide articolul(vezi imaginea al\u0103turat\u0103) \u00een care putem vedea limpede c\u0103 emisiunile Trezoreriei SUA au ajuns la nivelul din pandemie, care-i \u0219i cel mai mare nivel din istorie! \u00cen 2023 au fost emise 23 trilioane \u00een titluri de trezorerie, iar \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu anul trecut exist\u0103 o caden\u021b\u0103 de cre\u0219tere a datoriei SUA cu un trilion la fiecare 90 de zile.<\/p>\n

Este sau nu normal ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103? Raport\u00e2ndu-ne la PIB, vom observa c\u0103 Guvernul SUA cheltuie\u0219te viguros. S-a ajuns acum ca nivelul cheltuielilor guvernamentale(ca procent din PIB) s\u0103 fie la nivelul celor din timpul celui de-al Doilea R\u0103zboi Mondial, ceea ce e o nebunie absolut\u0103. Pe atunci SUA \u021binea un r\u0103zboi pe trei continente, \u00een timp ce acum se implic\u0103 prin intermediul unor proxy-uri dubioase. Oricum, de scurs, banii nu se scurg pe r\u0103zboi, ci \u00eentr-o schem\u0103 frauduloas\u0103 \u00een care \u00eentreg statul american este cangrenat de corup\u021bie.<\/p>\n

La ora actual\u0103 gradul de \u00eendatorare al SUA este de 124%, dar cu actuala dinamic\u0103 de accelerare poate ajunge destul de repede la 130%. Ce-i cu acest 130%? E un indicator fatidic deoarece, din 1800 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een prezent, din 52 de \u021b\u0103ri care au dep\u0103\u0219it nivelul de 130% din PIB, 51 au intrat \u00een default. \u00cens\u0103, \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te SUA, treburile stau mult mai sulfuros deoarece, dac\u0103 ne uit\u0103m bine, \u00eentreaga structur\u0103 a PIB-ului este una construit\u0103 – a\u0219 spune eu – de-a dreptul fraudulos. Practic totul este falsificat \u0219i \u0219urub\u0103rit din pix pentru a ar\u0103ta bine. Constat\u00e2nd e\u0219ecurile \u00een linie ale SUA, putem b\u0103nui justificat c\u0103 avem de-a face cu o grosolan\u0103 manipulare statistic\u0103, pe modelul pe care un prost de la UE l-a sc\u0103pat \u00een public \u201eatunci c\u00e2nd cifrele nu arat\u0103 bine, min\u021bim pur \u0219i simplu<\/i>\u201d.<\/p>\n

Dup\u0103 cum pute\u021bi observa, unul dintre cele mai dezastruoase state din punct de vedere al finan\u021belor publice, are cea mai fabuloas\u0103 cre\u0219tere a pie\u021bei de capital. O cre\u0219tere neoprit\u0103, \u00een care indicele de volatilitate practic n-a existat c\u00e2teva luni la r\u00e2nd. Despre ce este vorba? Dac\u0103 vi se pare c\u0103 pia\u021ba de capital e raiul \u00een timp ce finan\u021bele publice ale SUA sunt iadul, v\u0103 \u00een\u0219ela\u021bi. De fapt iadul acela dezastruos al finan\u021belor statului face ca pia\u021ba de capital \u00eenc\u0103 s\u0103 mai fie capabil\u0103 s\u0103 mimeze \u201ecol\u021bul de rai\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u00cen realitate \u00eens\u0103, mizeria pe care o vedem \u00een finan\u021bele publice, o vom vedea ie\u0219it\u0103 la suprafa\u021b\u0103 \u0219i pe pia\u021ba de capital. La fel ca PIB-ul american \u0219i pia\u021ba de capital e tot o minciun\u0103, doar c\u0103 aceasta are parte de mai mult marketing. \u00cens\u0103 istoria ne-a ar\u0103tat c\u0103, p\u00e2n\u0103 la urm\u0103, orice bul\u0103 bursier\u0103 sf\u00e2r\u0219e\u0219te \u00een s\u00e2nge. \u0218i, dup\u0103 cum bine \u0219tim, atunci c\u00e2nd e s\u00e2nge pe burse, statul trebuie s\u0103 intervin\u0103. Uit\u00e2ndu-ne \u00een structura finan\u021belor americane \u00eentrebarea logic\u0103 este: \u201eCU CE???\u201d. Ei bine, asta va fi extrem de interesant de v\u0103zut. \u0218i-o vom vedea mai cur\u00e2nd dec\u00e2t cred(sau sper\u0103) unii!<\/p>\n

Pun\u00e2nd punct articolului de azi, v\u0103 voi da \u0219i r\u0103spunsul \u00eentreb\u0103rii din titlu: nu, pia\u021ba de capital american\u0103 nu e raiul, ci tot un iad, dar mult mai frumos marketat. Deci nu avem niciun \u201erai vs iad\u201d, ci dou\u0103 fe\u021be ale iadului care \u00een cur\u00e2nd \u00ee\u0219i vor ar\u0103ta fa\u021ba lor real\u0103 care se va dovedi \u0219ocant de hidoas\u0103.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

de Dan Diaconu   S\u0103 \u00eencepem cu c\u00e2teva constat\u0103ri de-a dreptul \u0219ocante. Prima este cea legat\u0103 de concentrarea pie\u021bei americane de capital. Pentru cei care nu \u0219tiu, acesta este un indicator al \u201epolariz\u0103rii pie\u021bei\u201d, ar\u0103t\u00e2ndu-ne c\u00e2t din capitalizare este concentrat\u0103 \u00een dreptul celor mai mari companii listate. \u00cen anii 90, primele zece companii listate cumulau […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1941,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinii"],"yoast_head":"\nRai vs iad? - RoExit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1940\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rai vs iad? - RoExit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"de Dan Diaconu   S\u0103 \u00eencepem cu c\u00e2teva constat\u0103ri de-a dreptul \u0219ocante. Prima este cea legat\u0103 de concentrarea pie\u021bei americane de capital. 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Prima este cea legat\u0103 de concentrarea pie\u021bei americane de capital. 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