{"id":1949,"date":"2024-03-28T23:18:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-28T23:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1949"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:47:36","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:47:36","slug":"rusia-e-doar-o-benzinarie-opinia-lui-dan-diaconu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1949","title":{"rendered":"Rusia e doar o benzin\u0103rie! Opinia lui Dan Diaconu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

\u00cen urm\u0103 cu pu\u021bin timp v-am povestit despre comanda record de petrol rusesc f\u0103cut\u0103 de China. La momentul respectiv, pe baza datelor existente, p\u0103rea c\u0103 e vorba de un ajutor de-al Chinei care cump\u0103r\u0103 masiv de la ru\u0219i pentru a compensa comenzile \u00een reducere ale Indiei. Doar c\u0103 treburile sunt mult mai \u00eencurcate de-at\u00e2t.<\/p>\n

Un ordin discret, dar ferm, de-al factorilor ru\u0219i de decizie, cere produc\u0103torilor de petrol s\u0103 reduc\u0103 treptat cantit\u0103\u021bile extrase. Iat\u0103 elementul care chiar este surprinz\u0103tor pentru oricine! De obicei, ru\u0219ii mai s\u0103reau calul v\u00e2nz\u00e2nd petrol pe sub m\u00e2n\u0103 chiar \u0219i c\u00e2nd negociau sc\u0103deri de produc\u021bie cu partenerii din OPEC+. De ce oare s\u0103 se fi inversat pozi\u021bia rus\u0103?<\/p>\n

Din prima, constat\u00e2nd aceast\u0103 realitate, \u00een\u021belegem c\u0103 ipoteza compens\u0103rii de c\u0103tre China a pierderilor ruse este fals\u0103. \u00cen realitate China a ac\u021bionat c\u00e2t se poate pragmatic deoarece surplusul din mega-comanda anterioar\u0103 va veni la pre\u021bul convenit, \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care mi\u0219carea de acum a Rusiei va conduce la cre\u0219terea cota\u021biei petrolului. Cu alte cuvinte, ori a fost vorba despre o \u201esincronizare strategic\u0103\u201d \u00eentre ru\u0219i \u0219i chinezi, ori a fost vorba de un calcul c\u00e2t se poate de pragmatic de-al chinezilor care, pe baza informa\u021biilor, au decis c\u0103 e momentul s\u0103 cumpere masiv pentru a se proteja de nebunia care vine.<\/p>\n

Americanii sunt deja \u00een pragul disper\u0103rii. Modul \u00een care ac\u021bioneaz\u0103 ru\u0219ii va face ca, \u00eencet \u0219i sigur, pre\u021bul petrolului s\u0103 se duc\u0103 la peste 100$. Cei din statul subteran deja fac crize de isterie deoarece fiecare dolar \u00een plus la pre\u021bul petrolului se contorizeaz\u0103 \u00eentr-o sc\u0103dere de cel pu\u021bin un procent pentru Biden. Iar asta, \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care Trump \u0219i-a\u0219a st\u0103 infinit mai bine \u00een sondaje, e un fapt de-a dreptul alarmant.<\/p>\n

\u00centreg statul subteran american disper\u0103 \u0219i caut\u0103 solu\u021bii pentru a contracara \u201eamestecul rusesc\u201d \u00een alegeri. \u00cens\u0103, indiferent de retoric\u0103, treburile par c\u00e2t se poate de clare, at\u00e2t de clare \u00eenc\u00e2t fenomenul este analizat de JPMorgan \u00eentr-un material de-al lor. Anali\u0219tii americani v\u0103d petrolul la un pre\u021b de 90$ p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een mai \u0219i la 100$ p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een septembrie. Desigur, judecata lor e \u00een termeni strict electorali, subliniind ceea ce am spus p\u00e2n\u0103 acum legat de procentele deteriorate ale lui Biden.<\/p>\n

Doar c\u0103 treburile nu stau deloc a\u0219a. Trebuie s\u0103 constat\u0103m c\u0103, a\u0219a cum americanii au transformat banul \u00een arm\u0103, la fel acum ru\u0219ii transform\u0103 petrolul \u00eentr-o arm\u0103 veritabil\u0103. Manipul\u00e2nd pre\u021burile prin intermediul mic\u0219or\u0103rii output-ului, fac \u00een a\u0219a fel \u00eenc\u00e2t cota\u021biile s-o ia razna, iar cet\u0103\u021beanul american s\u0103 se trezeasc\u0103 din nou cu pre\u021bul de 4$ sau 5$ pe galon la pomp\u0103, ceea ce-i spore\u0219te nervozitatea.<\/p>\n

\u00cens\u0103 e c\u00e2t se poate de naiv s\u0103 crezi c\u0103 ru\u0219ii fac un asemenea sacrificiu doar pentru a nu fi reales mo\u0219ul troglodit, mai ales \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care Biden e garan\u021bia c\u0103 SUA va fi dus\u0103 drept \u00een pr\u0103pastie. Calculul rusesc e mult mai ad\u00e2nc, viz\u00e2nd contram\u0103surile previzibile ale americanilor. A\u0219adar, ru\u0219ii se a\u0219teapt\u0103 s\u0103 fie contracara\u021bi prin deschideri largi ale rezervelor strategice de petrol ale SUA. Astfel, la fel ca la \u00eenceputul r\u0103zboiului din Ucraina, americanii vor contrabalansa situa\u021bia. Cu siguran\u021b\u0103 statul subteran american va face asta pentru a \u201epreveni amestecul rusesc \u00een alegeri<\/i>\u201d. \u0218i uite-a\u0219a, \u0219oricelul american e adus fix \u00een pozi\u021bia urm\u0103rit\u0103 de motanul rusesc.<\/p>\n

\u021ainta ru\u0219ilor nu e Biden! E o iluzie s\u0103 crezi c\u0103 dac\u0103 vor fi schimba\u021bi boii de la v\u00e2rf se va \u00eent\u00e2mpla ceva \u00een politica american\u0103. La fel cum o iluzie e \u0219i s\u0103 crezi c\u0103 Trump \u00eei va avantaja pe ru\u0219i. S-a v\u0103zut din primul mandat c\u0103 Trump poate fi manipulat precum un copil mic, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t nu v\u0103d de ce nu s-ar \u00eent\u00e2mpla la fel \u00eentr-un al doilea mandat al s\u0103u. Deci, care-i problema?<\/p>\n

Ru\u0219ii, \u00een realitate, \u021bintesc fix rezerva strategic\u0103 a SUA! Acum rezerva strategic\u0103 este de 347 milioane de barili, cea mai mic\u0103 din 1983 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een prezent. Trebuie s\u0103 \u00een\u021belegem un element esen\u021bial: rezerva a fost \u00eenfiin\u021bat\u0103 \u00een 1975, cresc\u00e2nd continuu p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 1990, la o valoare de 595 milioane de barili. Dup\u0103 o perioad\u0103 de constan\u021b\u0103 de-a lungul ultimului deceniu al secolului trecut, SUA au crescut nivelul rezervei la peste 700 milioane de barili, v\u00e2rful ating\u00e2ndu-se \u00een 2010 (714 milioane de barili). Nivelul actual este, a\u0219adar, la mai pu\u021bin de jum\u0103tate fa\u021b\u0103 de v\u00e2rf. Ceea ce e \u0219i mai interesant este c\u0103 pre\u021bul mediu pl\u0103tit pe petrolul din rezerve a fost de doar …. 29 $\/baril!!!<\/p>\n

Acum e interesant s\u0103 vedem \u0219i dinamica. \u00cen 2021, \u201econtracararea\u201d Rusiei a costat SUA mai bine de 200 milioane de barili. Dup\u0103 excesul de atunci, Biden a promis c\u0103 va completa rezervele, ac\u021biune despre care am spus \u00eenc\u0103 de pe atunci c\u0103 va fi imposibil\u0103 (poate revede\u021bi articolele!). Ce s-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat? \u00centre timp, rezervele au sc\u0103zut cu \u00eenc\u0103 50 milioane barili, iar tendin\u021ba este una net descendent\u0103.<\/p>\n

A\u0219adar, ru\u0219ii mizeaz\u0103 pe o\u00a0replic\u0103 dur\u0103<\/i>\u00a0a statului subteran care va scoate, \u00een disperare de cauz\u0103, petrol din rezerv\u0103 pentru a men\u021bine cota\u021biile interna\u021bionale. Dac\u0103 ar fi o mi\u0219care similar\u0103 celei de la \u00eenceputul conflictului din Ucraina, \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 alte vreo 200 milioane de barili vor ie\u0219i din rezerve, duc\u00e2nd dimensiunea acestora \u00een jurul valorii de 100 milioane de barili. Adic\u0103 zero!<\/p>\n

Iat\u0103 momentul-limit\u0103 \u00een care Rusia, \u00eempreun\u0103 cu statele OPEC, vor face ordine pe pia\u021ba mondial\u0103 a petrolului. F\u0103r\u0103 amenin\u021barea rezervelor strategice americane, pre\u021bul petrolului revine la controlul produc\u0103torilor. \u0218i uite-a\u0219a, prin opera\u021biunile sale specifice, Putin reu\u0219e\u0219te s\u0103 dea o lovitur\u0103 mortal\u0103 SUA, aduc\u00e2nd-o \u00een plutonul cer\u0219etorilor de petrol.<\/p>\n

E o mi\u0219care de maestru de \u0219ah, perfect calculat\u0103. Cu un dezastru \u00een rezerve, cu finan\u021bele f\u0103cute praf, noua administra\u021bie de la Casa Alb\u0103 se va vedea \u00een fa\u021ba unei misiuni imposibile \u00een care provocarea suprem\u0103 va fi salvarea propriului fund. Cu alte cuvinte, nici nu se va mai pune problema \u201esubven\u021bion\u0103rii\u201d Europei prin eliberarea de gaze \u0219i petrol! A doua zi dup\u0103 ce alegerile americane vor dezv\u0103lui numele paia\u021bei alese s\u0103 stea \u00een fruntea \u021b\u0103rii, europenii vor primi vestea cea mai neagr\u0103 pentru ei, anume c\u0103 fiecare trebuie s\u0103 stea pe picioarele proprii. \u0218i sunt tare curios cum va ar\u0103ta mimica nulit\u0103\u021bilor europene la primirea tragicei – dar previzibilei – ve\u0219ti.<\/p>\n

A\u0219adar, trebuie s\u0103 ne a\u0219tept\u0103m la o perioad\u0103 plin\u0103 de volatilit\u0103\u021bi, \u00een care americanii vor fi \u00eempin\u0219i \u201es\u0103 c\u00e2\u0219tige r\u0103zboiul cu Putin de pe pia\u021ba petrolului<\/i>\u201d. O victorie\u00a0\u00e0\u00a0la Pirus\u00a0 dup\u0103 care se vor trezi cu fundu-n balt\u0103. Deh, a\u0219a se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 deoarece \u201eRusia e doar o benzin\u0103rie<\/i>\u201d. Una \u00een care benzinarul are prostul obicei de-a impune pre\u021bul care-i sare \u00een cap.<\/p>\n

Despre ce va \u00eensemna aceast\u0103 aparent\u0103 victorie \u0219i cum va modela lumea economic\u0103, vom vorbi \u00eentr-un alt articol. Pe moment, s\u0103 ne tragem sufletul \u0219i s\u0103 privim spectacolul care urmeaz\u0103 deoarece merit\u0103!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com \u00cen urm\u0103 cu pu\u021bin timp v-am povestit despre comanda record de petrol rusesc f\u0103cut\u0103 de China. La momentul respectiv, pe baza datelor existente, p\u0103rea c\u0103 e vorba de un ajutor de-al Chinei care cump\u0103r\u0103 masiv de la ru\u0219i pentru a compensa comenzile \u00een reducere ale Indiei. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1950,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[270,32,4],"tags":[112,677,1772,419,549,126,683,100,1773,1771,1406,105,1407,102,420,12,214],"class_list":["post-1949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-externe","category-opinii","category-stil_de_viata","tag-casa-alba","tag-china","tag-cresterea-cotatiei-petrolului","tag-dan-diaconu","tag-donald-trump","tag-federatia-rusa","tag-india","tag-joe-biden","tag-jpmorgan","tag-opec","tag-petrol","tag-razboi-ucraina","tag-rezervele-strategice-de-petrol-ale-sua","tag-sua","tag-trenduri-economice","tag-ue","tag-vladimir-putin"],"yoast_head":"\nRusia e doar o benzin\u0103rie! Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=1949\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rusia e doar o benzin\u0103rie! Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com \u00cen urm\u0103 cu pu\u021bin timp v-am povestit despre comanda record de petrol rusesc f\u0103cut\u0103 de China. La momentul respectiv, pe baza datelor existente, p\u0103rea c\u0103 e vorba de un ajutor de-al Chinei care cump\u0103r\u0103 masiv de la ru\u0219i pentru a compensa comenzile \u00een reducere ale Indiei. 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