{"id":2094,"date":"2024-04-15T16:24:36","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T16:24:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2094"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:48:28","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:48:28","slug":"cum-va-fi-primul-atac-asupra-romaniei-opinia-lui-chiazna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2094","title":{"rendered":"Cum va fi primul atac asupra Rom\u00e2niei. Opinia lui Chiazna"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de G. Chiazna ini\u021bial pe Chiazna.ro<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Zboar\u0103 rachete la nord \u00een Ucraina, zboar\u0103 la sud \u00een Siria (\u015fi c\u00e2teva \u015fi peste Israel) \u015fi tr\u0103d\u0103torii de rom\u00e2ni a\u015fteapt\u0103 s\u0103 fie lua\u0163i cu arcanul<\/a> de c\u00e2inii de paz\u0103 ai marelui lider politic Rare\u015f Bogdan, patriot adev\u0103rat \u015fi rom\u00e2n pur-s\u00e2nge, care cunoa\u015fte legendele istorice.<\/p>\n

Cu privire la intrarea noastr\u0103 \u00een R\u0103zboi, sunt dou\u0103 variante: ori noi declar\u0103m r\u0103zboi Rusiei, ori invers, Rusia ne atac\u0103 pe noi. Cu privire la prima variant\u0103, am tot discutat \u015fi am explicat c\u0103 principalul scenariu de introducere a Rom\u00e2niei \u00een r\u0103zboi, va fi crearea unor ma\u015fina\u0163iuni \u00een Transnistria care s\u0103 fac\u0103 s\u0103 se umfle p\u0103satul \u00een vene la blegii de tr\u0103d\u0103tori care nu ar vrea altfel \u00een ruptul capului s\u0103 se al\u0103ture ucrainienilor la rulada de carne de tun oferit\u0103 pe tav\u0103 ursului. A\u015fadar, vom vedea cum Transnistria invadeaz\u0103 Chi\u015fin\u0103ul \u015fi atunci, rom\u00e2nii vor s\u0103ri sub \u00eendemnul americanilor, \u00een ap\u0103rarea fra\u0163ilor de peste Prut pe care ini\u0163ial \u00eei vom elibera, a\u015fa cum i-am mai eliberat \u015fi alte d\u0103\u0163i. Nevoia Ucrainei de a atrage Rom\u00e2nia \u00een r\u0103zboi este evident\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 de la \u00eenceputul r\u0103zboiului:<\/p>\n

Pentru ucrainienii implicarea oric\u0103rei \u021b\u0103ri NATO \u00een r\u0103zboi este man\u0103 cereasc\u0103 deoarece nuclearele vor zbura c\u0103tre vest, apoi r\u0103zboiul conven\u021bional NATO vs Rusia va fi o joac\u0103. Singurul scenariu favorabil pentru Ucraina este un r\u0103zboi nuclear Rusia-NATO deoarece chiar dac\u0103 \u00eei vor da afar\u0103 pe ru\u0219i conven\u021bional, ru\u0219ii vor apela la nucleare \u00een cele din urm\u0103, ca ultim\u0103 m\u0103sur\u0103. Singurul motiv pentru care ru\u0219ii nu au dat cu nucleara \u00een Kiev este deoarece \u00eenc\u0103 mai au bombe \u0219i \u00eenc\u0103 mai au tancuri. Dac\u0103 armamentul oferit de vestici va ajuta at\u00e2t de mult Ucraina \u00eenc\u00e2t s\u0103 \u00eei dea afar\u0103 pe ru\u0219i (de\u0219i pu\u021bin probabil), este de a\u0219teptat ca ru\u0219ii s\u0103 apeleze la armele mai puternice. Poate mai au altele \u00een afara de cele nucleare, dar oricare ar fi acestea, pentru ucrainieni e nasol. De aceea vor r\u0103zboi mondial nuclear, ca ultima solu\u021bie. De aceea \u0219i repet\u0103 c\u0103 Rusia nu va fi oprit\u0103 \u0219i se laud\u0103 c\u0103 ei sunt ultimii ap\u0103r\u0103tori ai valorilor europene deoarece tot mesajul lor \u0219i toat\u0103 realitatea pe care \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 o proiecteze ma\u0219in\u0103ria de propagand\u0103 ucrainean\u0103 este \u00een direc\u021bia form\u0103rii unui bloc comun \u00eempotriva Rusiei.<\/p>\n

24 APR 2022 \u2013 UCRAINA VREA S\u0102 ATRAG\u0102 ROM\u00c2NIA \u00ceN R\u0102ZBOI<\/a><\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Ce nu am specificat prea clar \u00een acest articol de la \u00eenceputul r\u0103zboiului este c\u0103 de fapt nu Ucraina vrea toate astea, ci americanii care au planificat \u015fi produs acest r\u0103zboi prin f\u00e2lf\u00e2irea promisiunii de extindere a NATO \u015fi b\u0103gatul b\u0103\u0163ului printre gardul ursului. Deci dac\u0103 a\u015fa g\u00e2ndeau atunci, \u015fi din mesajele transmise era clar, a\u015fa g\u00e2ndesc \u015fi acum, deoarece planul nu a suferit prea multe modificari, doar c\u0103 iat\u0103-ne peste 2 ani \u00eentr-o situa\u0163ie aproape la fel de nasoal\u0103 pentru ucrainieni.<\/p>\n

Dar primul scenariu cu b\u0103garea Rom\u00e2niei \u00een r\u0103zboi l-am tot abordat \u00een nenum\u0103rate articole. Singura noutate ar fi c\u0103 exist\u0103 o oarecare posibilitate ca al\u0103turi de noi s\u0103 vin\u0103 \u015fi ceva francezi. Francezii, al\u0103turi de britanici sunt singurii europeni care \u00ee\u015fi permit s\u0103 trimit\u0103 trupe deoarece av\u00e2nd nucleare, pentru ru\u015fi exist\u0103 un oarecare risc major dac\u0103 \u00een urma implic\u0103rii militare a acestor trupe \u00een Ucraina, Rusia ar r\u0103spunde direct prin rachete \u015fi atacuri asupra Fran\u0163ei sau Marii Britanii. Constr\u00e2ngerile sunt urm\u0103toarele: dac\u0103 Rusia atac\u0103 Fran\u0163a conven\u0163ional, prin rachete aeriene, \u00een urma trimiterii de trupe, Fran\u0163a poate r\u0103spunde cu nucleare, adic\u0103 Macron are legal dreptul \u0103sta \u015fi deoarece a fost umilit de Putin de at\u00e2tea ori, joac\u0103 poker dur \u015fi amenin\u0163\u0103 Rusia cu r\u0103spunsul nuclear. Rusia dac\u0103 atac\u0103 direct nuclear Fran\u0163a, pentru a neutraliza r\u0103spunsul acestora, risc\u0103 un r\u0103spuns din partea SUA deoarece orice lansare de nucleare, din Rusia, este monitorizat\u0103 permanent \u015fi \u0163inta nu poate fi cu certitudine \u015ftiut\u0103, chiar dac\u0103 va exista un context al conflictului clar, \u00een sensul c\u0103 Rusia va da ultimatum Fran\u0163ei, amenin\u0163\u00e2nd cu nuclearele. Deci chiar dac\u0103 ru\u015fii vor anun\u0163a francezii, a\u015fa cum au f\u0103cut acum iranienii, simplul anun\u0163 nu va scuti Rusia de riscul unui atac nuclear. Prin urmare, va fi mult mai indicat \u015fi simplu pentru ru\u015fi ca \u00een locul unui r\u0103spuns militar nuclear direct, s\u0103 bat\u0103 pe front trupele francezilor.<\/p>\n

Mult\u0103 lume se ar\u0103ta oripilat\u0103 pe la noi de cum se discuta la TV \u00een Rusia despre folosirea nuclearelor, despre cum ru\u015fii pl\u0103nuiesc s\u0103 rad\u0103 capitalele \u015fi marile ora\u015fe europene cu nucleare. Jurnali\u015ftii care prezint\u0103 aceste emisiuni \u015fi \u00een general comentatorii care se arat\u0103 \u015foca\u0163i de violen\u0163a \u015fi setea de s\u00e2nge a ru\u015filor, nu \u00een\u0163eleg c\u0103 practic pentru ru\u015fi nu prea exist\u0103 alternativ\u0103 la un r\u0103zboi nuclear complet. M\u0103 refer, cu privire la un r\u0103zboi cu vestul. Este clar c\u0103 una este ca Rusia s\u0103 atace Ucraina \u015fi vestul s\u0103 sprijine Ucraina cu arme \u015fi alta e ca Fran\u0163a s\u0103 trimit\u0103 trupe \u00een Ucraina s\u0103 lupte cu ru\u015fii.<\/p>\n

Acum, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 un r\u0103zboi nuclear e nasol pentru toat\u0103 lumea \u015fi c\u0103 ambele p\u0103r\u0163i doresc s\u0103 evite, o cale de mijloc ar fi ca s\u0103 se cad\u0103 de acord cum c\u0103 implicarea unor \u0163\u0103ri din NATO \u00een r\u0103zboi, \u0163\u0103ri care nu de\u0163in nucleare, s\u0103 nu fie considerat\u0103 pretext de folosire a nuclearelor de nicio parte. Adic\u0103, dac\u0103 Polonia sau Rom\u00e2nia de exemplu atac\u0103 Rusia, s\u0103 nu cread\u0103 Rusia c\u0103 gata, NATO i-a declarat r\u0103zboi \u015fi prin urmare trebuie s\u0103 retalieze cu nucleare direct spre SUA sau spre europeni. De asemenea, invers, dac\u0103 Rusia atac\u0103 vreun minion NATO, e vital ca \u0163\u0103rile care au nucleare din NATO s\u0103 \u00een\u0163eleag\u0103 c\u0103 asta nu \u00eenseamn\u0103 deloc c\u0103 Rusia va apela la nucleare \u00eempotriva SUA sau a Vestului.<\/p>\n

Deci nuclearele sunt cele care dicteaz\u0103 geopolitica \u015fi rela\u0163iile dintre state \u00een acest conflict. SUA este evident interesat\u0103 ca acest r\u0103zboi s\u0103 continue \u015fi ca statele s\u0103 cumpere c\u00e2t mai multe arme \u015fi poate chiar \u015fi petrol \u015fi gaze de la americani. Dac\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 ru\u015fii \u0163in musai s\u0103 ocupe toat\u0103 Ucraina, SUA vor dori s\u0103 bage \u00een r\u0103zboi \u00eenc\u0103 un pion sau doi, \u015fi prin urmare, la cine s\u0103 apeleze? De ce crede\u0163i c\u0103 Polonia face achizi\u0163ii masive de arme? Deoarece are bani? Nu au! Sunt la fel de s\u0103raci ca noi, sau mai bine zis de \u00eendatora\u0163i. Polonezii fac credite la americani ca s\u0103 cumpere arme deoarece se preg\u0103tesc s\u0103 fie b\u0103ga\u0163i \u00een r\u0103zboi pentru a continua r\u0103zboiul deoarece SUA nu mai are op\u0163iuni de a fenta criza financiar\u0103 \u015fi provoac\u0103 r\u0103zboaie din ce \u00een ce mai multe \u015fi mai mari.<\/p>\n

Dar b\u0103garea unei \u0163\u0103ri NATO \u00een r\u0103zboi este complicat\u0103 deoarece alian\u0163a este \u00een pericol dac\u0103 nu \u00ee\u015fi ap\u0103r\u0103 membrii. Orice mi\u015fcare gre\u015fit\u0103 a SUA cu privire la vreo eventual\u0103 atacare a unei \u0163\u0103ri, \u00eei poate costa destr\u0103marea alian\u0163ei \u015fi probleme majore. Personal, v\u0103d NATO ca o alian\u0163\u0103 ca foile cepei. Adic\u0103 dac\u0103 foaia cea mai sub\u0163ire \u015fi uscat\u0103 de la exterior este decojit\u0103, singura problem\u0103 pentru urm\u0103toarea va fi expunerea la aer \u015fi oxigenarea. Deci foile se pot rupe una c\u00e2te una. Una este NATO pentru \u0163\u0103rile din Vest, alta e NATO pentru noii veni\u0163i, minionii din est. Nu cred c\u0103 SUA ar apela la nucleare dac\u0103 un minion ar fi atacat de Rusia, dar sunt sigur c\u0103 SUA ar apela la nucleare dac\u0103 Marea Britanie ar fi atacat\u0103. Cu privire la francezi sau la nem\u0163i, am dubii, sunt cumva la mijloc. Deci exist\u0103 cam 3 niveluri de reac\u0163ie ale SUA cu privire la un eventual atac al Rusiei \u015fi retalierea prin nucleare: 1) reac\u0163ie zero \u00een cazul minionilor; bine\u00een\u0163eles vor oferi arme, suport managerial, declara\u0163ii politice, vor impune noi sanc\u0163iuni Rusiie etc; mare br\u00e2nz\u0103 de ajutorul oferit deja Ucrainei nu va fi, poate vom primi mai multe arme 2) reac\u0163ie incert\u0103 \u00een cazul \u0163\u0103rilor continentale cu tradi\u0163ie, vechi (Fran\u0163a, Italia, Germania) \u015fi 3) reac\u0163ie probabil nuclear\u0103 \u00een cazul atac\u0103rii Marii Britanii. Ar mai fi unele nuan\u0163e legate de noii veni\u0163i, \u0163\u0103rile nordice, dar aici sunt cumva \u00eentre 1 \u015fi 2.<\/p>\n

Cu toate acestea, darea pe fa\u0163\u0103 a punctului 1, anume reac\u0163ia zero \u00een urma atacului Rusiei, va da pe fa\u0163\u0103 problemele alian\u0163ei \u015fi va duce la intrarea \u00een irelevan\u0163\u0103 a NATO \u015fi simplificarea rela\u0163iilor. NATO va fi obsolete la prima rachet\u0103 ruseasc\u0103 picat\u0103 fie \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, fie \u00een Polonia \u015fi \u00een urma c\u0103reia nu va exista nicio reac\u0163ie dec\u00e2t revolta popular\u0103. Va fi un \u015foc pentru popoarele acestor \u0163\u0103ri s\u0103 vad\u0103 c\u0103 americanii se fac c\u0103 nu e racheta ru\u015filor, cum au f\u0103cut cu acea rachet\u0103 c\u0103zut\u0103 la polonezi.<\/p>\n

Deci deoarece nici Rusia nu vrea s\u0103 pun\u0103 \u00eentr-o lumin\u0103 nefast\u0103 SUA \u00een cazul atac\u0103rii unor minioane, trebuie s\u0103 existe motive \u00eentemeiate ale ru\u015filor pentru a ataca fie Rom\u00e2nia fie Polonia. Se \u00een\u0163elege c\u0103 dintre cei doi, care sunt probabil principalii candita\u0163i, cel mai slab \u015fi cel mai tentant pentru ru\u015fi este Rom\u00e2nia. Indiferent care dintre cei doi va fi atacat, este de a\u015fteptat ca ambele s\u0103 intre \u00eempreun\u0103 \u00een r\u0103zboi \u00eempotriva ru\u015filor \u00een urma primelor atacuri. Dar care s\u0103 fie motivele \u00eentemeiate care vor stimula ru\u015fii s\u0103 fac\u0103 acest pas \u015fi aceast\u0103 escaladare? Cu siguran\u0163\u0103 nu delcara\u0163iile belicoase ale liderilor deoarece ru\u015fii nu pun botul la caterinc\u0103. Singurul lucru care \u00eei va enerva suficient pe ru\u015fi, prin faptul c\u0103 va avea un efect asupra r\u0103zboiului, va fi eventuala introducere fie din Rom\u00e2nia fie din Polonia a unor arme suficient de puternice c\u00e2t s\u0103 le pun\u0103 probleme ru\u015filor. Se tot vorbe\u015fte despre avioanele F-16 dar eu cred c\u0103 Ucraina nu are pilo\u0163i \u015fi a\u015fa cum nici m\u0103car tanchi\u015fti care s\u0103 foloseasc\u0103 cum trebuie tancurile americanilor nu are, nici pentru avioane Ucraina nu are pilo\u0163i capabili. Nu vreau s\u0103 jignesc ucrainienii, dar pilo\u0163ii sunt \u00een general solda\u0163i cu un IQ c\u00e2t de c\u00e2t ridicat, nu cu unul redus ca \u0163\u0103r\u0103noii care sunt trimi\u015fi acum pe front deoarece nu au fost capabili s\u0103 fug\u0103 \u015fi s\u0103 scape de dus la mezat. Pilo\u0163ii ucrainieni capabili s\u0103 conduc\u0103 F16, fiind inteligen\u0163i, deja zboar\u0103 pentru companiile aeriene ale lumii \u00een domeniul privat, cine \u015ftie pe unde prin lume, nevoi\u0163i fiind s\u0103 \u00ee\u015fi salveze familiile \u015fi tenta\u0163i de salarii mari \u00een detrimentul perspectivei de a fi efectiv \u0163inte de lupt\u0103 pentru ru\u015fi.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dar dac\u0103 nu prea se g\u0103se\u015fte armament suficient de puternic care s\u0103 schimbe soarta r\u0103zboiului, e posibil ca una dintre \u0163\u0103ri s\u0103 fie \u00eencurajat\u0103 s\u0103 trimit\u0103 trupe, sub o form\u0103 sau alta. Caz \u00een care, Rusia va prinde curaj s\u0103 retalieze, cu toate riscurile men\u0163ionate mai sus, anume de a provoca o reac\u0163ie coordonat\u0103 \u00eentre cele dou\u0103 \u0163\u0103ri, Polonia \u015fi Rom\u00e2nia. De aceea, e de a\u015fteptat ca \u201cpedepsele\u201d \u015fi avertismentele ru\u015filor s\u0103 fie cu unele lovituri de rachete care nici s\u0103 nu fie asumate. Fie prin t\u0103cere, fie prin negare, fie prin t\u0103r\u0103g\u0103narea unui r\u0103spuns clar, dup\u0103 ce vor c\u0103dea primele rachete, Rusia nu le va recunoa\u015fte \u015fi astfel, tensiunea loviturii va fi atenuat\u0103 \u015fi riscul provoc\u0103rii reac\u0163iei comune \u00eentre Rom\u00e2nia \u015fi Polonia, de intrat \u00een r\u0103zboi al\u0103turi de Ucraina va fi eliminat.<\/p>\n

Dup\u0103 un prim atac, va urma evaluarea r\u0103spunsului \u015fi deoarece atacul nu va fi asumat de ru\u015fi, Rom\u00e2nia \u015fi Polonia vor analiza rachetele a\u015fa cum au analizat dronele. Form\u00e2nd comitete de analiz\u0103 \u015fi consult\u00e2ndu-se cu liderii NATO. Altfel spus, tr\u0103g\u00e2nd de timp pentru a detensiona m\u00e2nia \u015fi spaima popular\u0103. Dar ulterior vor urma alte \u015fi alte lovituri similare \u015fi la un moment dat Rusia poate chiar va explica de ce pedepse\u015fte o \u0163ar\u0103 sai alta \u015fi le va cere s\u0103 nu mai ajute Ucraina, pentru c\u0103 altfel pedepsele vor fi \u015fi mai mari.<\/p>\n

Scenariul este mai pu\u0163in complex dac\u0103 ru\u015fii deja vor fi ocupat Ucraina toat\u0103 \u00een acel moment, caz \u00een care e posibil ca primele lovituri s\u0103 nu fie aeriene, ci invazia s\u0103 fie din prima terestr\u0103, cu tancurile, similare blitz-krieg-ului \u00eempotriva Ucrainei de la \u00eenceputul r\u0103zboiului.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de G. Chiazna ini\u021bial pe Chiazna.ro Zboar\u0103 rachete la nord \u00een Ucraina, zboar\u0103 la sud \u00een Siria (\u015fi c\u00e2teva \u015fi peste Israel) \u015fi tr\u0103d\u0103torii de rom\u00e2ni a\u015fteapt\u0103 s\u0103 fie lua\u0163i cu arcanul de c\u00e2inii de paz\u0103 ai marelui lider politic Rare\u015f Bogdan, patriot adev\u0103rat \u015fi rom\u00e2n pur-s\u00e2nge, care cunoa\u015fte legendele istorice. Cu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2095,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[270,32,4],"tags":[310,126,196,21,207,972,1798,105,143,102],"class_list":["post-2094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-externe","category-opinii","category-stil_de_viata","tag-chiazna-ro","tag-federatia-rusa","tag-gigel-chiazna","tag-nato","tag-polonia","tag-razboi-nuclear","tag-razboi-nuclear-ue-federatia-rusa","tag-razboi-ucraina","tag-romania","tag-sua"],"yoast_head":"\nCum va fi primul atac asupra Rom\u00e2niei. 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