{"id":2102,"date":"2024-04-18T00:45:22","date_gmt":"2024-04-18T00:45:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2102"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:48:27","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:48:27","slug":"de-ce-americanii-vor-sa-i-ia-jucariile-lui-bibi-si-de-ce-el-nu-se-lasa-pacalit-opinia-lui-dan-diaconu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2102","title":{"rendered":"De ce americanii vor s\u0103-i ia juc\u0103riile lui Bibi \u0219i de ce el nu se las\u0103 p\u0103c\u0103lit? Opinia lui Dan Diaconu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

S\u0103 \u00eencepem cu \u00eenceputul. Am v\u0103zut un narativ victorios vehiculat de-a lungul \u0219i de-a latul mediei, cum c\u0103 dup\u0103 \u201eatacul m\u00e2r\u0219av<\/i>\u201d al Iranului \u00eentreg Occidentul s-a ar\u0103tat solidar cu Israelul. Instantaneu m-am \u00eentrebat: \u201eUnde-am mai auzit eu asta?<\/i>\u201d. M-am \u00eentrebat e un fel de-a spune pentru a explica traseul instinctului care mi-a aruncat instantaneu \u00een fa\u021b\u0103 narativul americano-occidental despre \u201ealinierea tuturor \u021b\u0103rilor lumii \u00eempotriva Rusiei<\/i>\u201d, despre \u201eresuscitarea NATO dup\u0103 ce a \u00eenceput conflictul<\/i>\u201d s.a.m.d.\u201d. V\u0103 mai aminti\u021bi? Vede\u021bi, a\u0219a se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 c\u00e2nd faci marketing low cost dup\u0103 re\u021bet\u0103! Mai sunt unii tic\u0103lo\u0219i care \u00ee\u0219i amintesc, asta \u00een ciuda faptului c\u0103 la manual spune c\u0103, de amintit, nu-\u0219i mai aminte\u0219te nimeni!<\/p>\n

Bun, acum s\u0103 trecem la evenimente. A atacat Iranul din senin? Desigur c\u0103 r\u0103spunsul e negativ. Atacarea Ambasadei sale din Damasc a fost elementul declan\u0219ator pentru ceea ce am v\u0103zut. \u0218i ce-am v\u0103zut a fost un spectacol care trebuie \u00een\u021beles la adev\u0103rata sa dimensiune. Desigur, propaganda a \u00eenceput s\u0103 turuie vrute \u0219i nevrute. O s\u0103 v\u0103 \u00eentreb o chestie: dac\u0103 vrei cu adev\u0103rat s\u0103-\u021bi distrugi un adversar, ataci direct sau anun\u021bi \u00eenainte? Iranul, \u00een p\u0103strarea unei tradi\u021bii pe care o s\u0103 v-o explic imediat, a anun\u021bat atacul cu 72 de ore \u00eenainte. Mai \u021bine\u021bi minte momentul \u00een care a fost ucis mi\u0219ele\u0219te generalul Soleimani (cel invocat ritualic inclusiv acum, c\u00e2nd a fost pornit atacul \u00eempotriva Israelului)? Cum a procedat Iranul? A anun\u021bat SUA c\u0103 urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 retalieze, indic\u00e2nd inclusiv \u00een ce zon\u0103 o va face. Iar c\u00e2nd le-au dat bombele peste baza militar\u0103, bravii solda\u021bi americani abia au avut timp s\u0103 se refugieze \u00een bunker, dup\u0103 care mul\u021bi s-au cam dilit la propriu. Este, a\u0219adar, o tradi\u021bie de-a Iranienilor de a anun\u021ba atacul pentru ca cel atacat s\u0103 \u0219tie exact de unde i se trage \u0219i care e cauza. Loviturile lor, din acest punct de vedere, trebuie v\u0103zute ca pe o sentin\u021b\u0103 asumat\u0103 \u0219i transparent\u0103.<\/p>\n

Ceea ce am v\u0103zut \u00een raport cu Israelul a fost chiar mai mult de-at\u00e2t: a fost o defilare. E o iluzie s\u0103 crezi c\u0103 iranienii sunt at\u00e2t de pro\u0219ti \u00eenc\u00e2t s\u0103 cread\u0103 c\u0103, trimi\u021b\u00e2nd drone sau rachete balistice de genera\u021bie veche, urm\u0103resc s\u0103 fac\u0103 ceva cu ele. Toate au fost trimise pentru a epuiza ap\u0103rarea, pentru ca Israelul s\u0103 pl\u0103teasc\u0103 fizic un cost ustur\u0103tor. E vorba, totu\u0219i, de 1.5 mld. $ p\u0103pa\u021bi \u00eentr-o noapte. \u201eLas\u0103 c\u0103-i tip\u0103resc imediat<\/i>\u201d – spun unii. Ei bine, nici cu tip\u0103ritul \u0103sta nu mai e at\u00e2t de simplu. Deja sunt mult prea mul\u021bi bani tip\u0103ri\u021bi, iar matematica le joac\u0103 feste americanilor.<\/p>\n

Cert este c\u0103, at\u00e2t defilarea dronelor c\u00e2t \u0219i rachetele balistice a avut scopul de a cople\u0219i ap\u0103rarea israelian\u0103 \u0219i a alia\u021bilor acestei \u021b\u0103ri, f\u0103c\u00e2ndu-i pe evrei s\u0103 se pl\u0103teasc\u0103 un pre\u021b asimetric, de peste 12 ori mai mare dec\u00e2t costul estimat al armelor de atac iraniene. V\u0103 imagina\u021bi c\u0103 pentru a da jos o dron\u0103-\u201eMobra\u201d de maxim 5000 EUR, au fost ridicate avioane F-35 care au tras cu muni\u021bie de cel pu\u021bin 200 de ori mai scump\u0103? Parc\u0103 am retr\u0103i la o scar\u0103 mai mare nebunia crizei baloanelor meteorologice.<\/p>\n

De asemenea, punctele-cheie unde trebuia s\u0103 se vad\u0103 r\u0103zbunarea au fost atinse cu rachete de nou\u0103 genera\u021bie. Este vorba de sediul secret de unde s-a proiectat opera\u021biunea de bombardare a Ambasadei din Damasc \u0219i de baza aerian\u0103 de unde au decolat avioanele. \u00cen ciuda propagandei, \u021bintele au fost atinse f\u0103r\u0103 probleme \u0219i cu o precizie demn\u0103 de invidiat.<\/p>\n

Iat\u0103 momentul \u00een care ne afl\u0103m acum. Ce am mai v\u0103zut? Oarece declara\u021bii belicoase ale Israelului \u0219i dou\u0103 \u00eentruniri ale Consiliului de R\u0103zboi \u00een care au fost disensiuni serioase \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te r\u0103spunsul care ar trebui dat. Dup\u0103 prima \u00eent\u00e2lnire se stabilise c\u0103 urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 se atace Iranul dar, \u00een urma discu\u021biilor cu Biden, opera\u021biunile s-au stopat. Acesta este momentul-cheie. De ce s-ar fi opus SUA? Nu pare ciudat?<\/p>\n

De fapt nu e deloc ciudat, iar aici avem de-a face cu negocieri diplomatice ascunse. SUA, din punct de vedere geopolitic, are o problem\u0103 major\u0103: Europa. Deteriorarea masiv\u0103 a nivelului de trai din Europa, picajul economic \u0219i gravele probleme interne risc\u0103 s\u0103 explodeze. SUA, pentru a nu pierde Europa din m\u00e2ini, trebuie s\u0103 g\u0103seasc\u0103 urgent o surs\u0103 de energie care s\u0103 livreze, chiar \u0219i la nivel de avarie, surse primare de energie. Rusia e scoas\u0103 din calcul nu doar ca efect a politicii legate de r\u0103zboiul din Ucraina, ci \u0219i din cauz\u0103 c\u0103 ru\u0219ii nu vor s\u0103 mai investeasc\u0103 \u00een elemente de infrastructur\u0103 pentru Europa. S-au re\u00eentors la paradigma sovietic\u0103 de v\u00e2nzare de la grani\u021bele proprii sau prin proxy-uri energetice (vezi Turcia). Doar c\u0103 SUA nu poate permite achizi\u021bii directe din Rusia deoarece i-ar pica \u00eentreaga retoric\u0103 a sanc\u021biunilor.<\/p>\n

Dup\u0103 cum limpede pute\u021bi remarca, \u00eentreaga politic\u0103 de p\u00e2n\u0103 acum pentru Europa a fost un e\u0219ec de la cap la coad\u0103. Iar asta se vede din ce \u00een ce mai clar \u00een exacerbarea sentimentului anti-american de pe Continent. Nu trebuie s\u0103 fii mare expert pentru a realiza c\u0103 \u00eentreg narativul sus\u021binut de SUA e picat. Lumea s-a s\u0103turat de americani ca de mere acre. De aceea, g\u0103sirea unei solu\u021bii e stringent\u0103. \u0218i, cum Rusia nu e o solu\u021bie, singura variant\u0103 care le-a r\u0103mas americanilor \u00een buzunar este … Iranul. Exist\u0103 informa\u021bii certe despre deschiderile porti\u021belor diplomatice pentru discu\u021bii cu Iranul. Practic, prin anularea restric\u021biilor, SUA ar putea elibera c\u0103tre Europa un val de hidrocarburi ieftine care ar petici c\u00e2t de c\u00e2t structura energetic\u0103 a B\u0103tr\u00e2nului Continent. Presimt c\u0103 v\u0103 ve\u021bi \u00eentreba instantaneu dac\u0103 nu cumva prin asta Iranul tr\u0103deaz\u0103 Rusia. Evident c\u0103 r\u0103spunsul e negativ.<\/p>\n

Cele mai mari investi\u021bii din zona hidrocarburilor iraniene sunt ruse\u0219ti. De altfel, deschiderea Iranului este o oportunitate teribil\u0103 inclusiv pentru Rusia. Motivul e c\u00e2t se poate de simplu \u0219i \u021bine de zilele num\u0103rate ale lui Erdogan. F\u0103r\u0103 o succesiune cert\u0103 \u0219i f\u0103r\u0103 o personalitate puternic\u0103 menit\u0103 a prelua puterea din m\u00e2inile sultanului pentru a duce proiectul mai departe, \u00eentreaga politic\u0103 a Turciei din ultima perioad\u0103 pare sortit\u0103 e\u0219ecului. Investi\u021biile americane \u00een zona c\u00e2rti\u021belor par a fi dat roade \u0219i, de aceea, Rusia este obligat\u0103 s\u0103 g\u0103seasc\u0103 alternative la Turcia. Iranul poate juca, \u00een scurt timp, rolul de hub energetic dorit de Turcia. Mai mult, o eventual\u0103 conduct\u0103 spre Europa nu are cum s\u0103 treac\u0103 dec\u00e2t prin Siria fiind, se asemenea, controlat\u0103 de Rusia. Cu alte cuvinte, Rusia are tot interesul ca Iranul s\u0103 devin\u0103 un hub energetic pentru Europa deoarece \u00een acest fel poate influen\u021ba direct at\u00e2t Europa, c\u00e2t \u0219i Turcia. F\u0103r\u0103 supliment\u0103rile dinspre Rusia, Iranul singur nu poate oferi necesarul de energie \u0219i, de aceea, prin politici soft, ru\u0219ii pot avea \u00een continuare controlul.<\/p>\n

Cum bine observa\u021bi, proxy-ul iranian convine ambelor p\u0103r\u021bi. De aceea Bibi a fost oprit prin intermediul unei retorici imperative. Pentru SUA un r\u0103zboi deschis Israel-Iran e un dezastru total deoarece nu-i pot face fa\u021b\u0103. Iranul poate spulbera toate bazele militare americane \u0219i-i poate arunca pe americani \u00een coada clasamentului puterii mondiale. Nu mai vorbesc despre consecin\u021bele tragice ale pr\u0103bu\u0219irii pre\u021bului petrolului, care pot conduce la colaps societatea Occidental\u0103 \u00een \u00eentregul s\u0103u.<\/p>\n

\u00cens\u0103 o asemenea \u00een\u021belegere ar fi un dezastru pentru Bibi. Un Iran cu bilet de voie pentru pia\u021ba Occidental\u0103 \u00eenseamn\u0103 o r\u0103sturnare de situa\u021bie cu consecin\u021be catastrofale pentru el. Nu doar c\u0103 se pr\u0103bu\u0219e\u0219te, dar \u00eentreaga sa politic\u0103 va fi sf\u00e2\u0219iat\u0103 de furia public\u0103 unde \u201einvesti\u021biile\u201d lui Soros se v\u0103d c\u00e2t se poate de limpede. De aceea Netaniahu nu va \u00eenchide conflictul. De altfel, prin prisma negocierilor despre care v\u0103 vorbeam, pute\u021bi \u00een\u021belege \u0219i logica bombard\u0103rii Ambasadei Iranului din\u00a0 Damasc. Israelul actual \u00ee\u0219i dore\u0219te cu disperare men\u021binerea Iranului \u00een conflict pentru a nu se putea semna o \u00een\u021belegere SUA\/Europa-Iran. Iat\u0103 \u0219i de ce a fost nevoie de un al doilea Consiliu de R\u0103zboi \u00een care s\u0103 se decid\u0103 acela\u0219i lucru.<\/p>\n

Este foarte interesant \u0219i modul \u00een care Israelul va alege s\u0103 atace Iranul. Pentru a se ajunge pe un drum f\u0103r\u0103 \u00eentoarcere, Netaniahu va merge pe o cale radical\u0103, reprezentat\u0103 de bombardarea elementelor critice ale programului atomic iranian. Cu toate c\u0103 ac\u021biunea va conduce la un adev\u0103rat dezastru, e singurul as \u00een m\u00e2na lui Netaniahu care poate face ca drumul pe care o vor lua evenimentele s\u0103 fie unul f\u0103r\u0103 \u00eentoarcere.<\/p>\n

Probabil v\u0103 da\u021bi seama c\u0103, lu\u00e2nd o asemenea decizie, Netaniahu se comport\u0103 ca un nebun. Credin\u021ba sa este aceea c\u0103 Iranul nu e chiar at\u00e2t de puternic \u0219i c\u0103 va fi \u00eenvins de Israel \u00eempreun\u0103 cu SUA. Doar c\u0103 SUA nu poate s\u0103 se al\u0103ture Israelului deoarece astfel ar ob\u021bine o alian\u021b\u0103 Rusia-China-Iran, care va spulbera SUA din Orient. De fapt, problema lui Netaniahu este aceea c\u0103 acum e un animal \u00eencol\u021bit. Lupta f\u0103r\u0103 succes \u00eempotriva Hamas, genocidul s\u0103v\u00e2r\u0219it \u0219i problemele generate de invadarea Gazei sunt pietre de moar\u0103 legate de g\u00e2tul s\u0103u. Nu-i pu\u021bin lucru s\u0103 ai dou\u0103 trasee importante \u00eenchise pentru oamenii de afaceri israelieni sau pentru cei care transport\u0103 \u00een numele Israelului. Situa\u021bia e din ce \u00een ce mai complicat\u0103 \u0219i, colac peste pup\u0103z\u0103, de rezolvarea unei asemenea ecua\u021bii nerezolvabile depinde libertatea lui Netaniahu. El \u0219tie c\u0103 orice scenariu care pune cap\u0103t conflictului de acolo se va l\u0103sa cu intrarea sa \u00een pu\u0219c\u0103rie. Treburile sunt coapte, dosarele sunt pe rol \u0219i-l a\u0219teapt\u0103 r\u0103bd\u0103toare. Iat\u0103, a\u0219adar, sursa nebuniei lui Netaniahu, cea care-l face s\u0103 se comporte asemenea unui animal h\u0103ituit. Intrarea \u00eentr-o situa\u021bie infinit mai complex\u0103 dec\u00e2t cea curent\u0103 \u00eei confer\u0103 lui Netaniahu o certitudine c\u0103 va sc\u0103pa sau, dac\u0103 nu, c\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i va am\u00e2na mult timp de-acum \u00eenainte problemele complicate pe care le are.<\/p>\n

De partea cealalt\u0103, actuala Administra\u021bie de la Casa Alb\u0103 \u0219tie c\u0103 trebuie s\u0103 rezolve cu celeritate problema iranian\u0103 deoarece Trump nu va semna \u00een veci o asemenea \u00een\u021belegere, prefer\u00e2nd mai degrab\u0103 s\u0103-i arunce pe europeni direct la cer\u0219it la poarta lui Putin. Politica lui Trump – sau a conservatorilor tradi\u021bionali americani – va fi aceea de renun\u021bare la NATO \u0219i, automat, la fantasmagoria NATO-socialist\u0103 european\u0103 \u00een favoarea AUKUS \u0219i, eventual, a integr\u0103rii Japoniei \u0219i Coreei de Sud \u00een aceast\u0103 nou\u0103 organiza\u021bie militar\u0103. Interesul este justificat de mutarea centrului de greutate al lumii \u00een Asia, ceea ce face Europa absolut irelevant\u0103.<\/p>\n

P\u00e2n\u0103 atunci, \u00eens\u0103, ne vom concentra privirile c\u0103tre viitoarea mi\u0219care a Israelului. Va fi l\u0103sat Bibi f\u0103r\u0103 juc\u0103rii sau va reu\u0219i s\u0103 le fure \u0219i s\u0103 ia prin surprindere pe toat\u0103 lumea prin deschiderea Pandorei iraniene? Asta e \u00eentrebarea critic\u0103 a momentului!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com S\u0103 \u00eencepem cu \u00eenceputul. Am v\u0103zut un narativ victorios vehiculat de-a lungul \u0219i de-a latul mediei, cum c\u0103 dup\u0103 \u201eatacul m\u00e2r\u0219av\u201d al Iranului \u00eentreg Occidentul s-a ar\u0103tat solidar cu Israelul. Instantaneu m-am \u00eentrebat: \u201eUnde-am mai auzit eu asta?\u201d. M-am \u00eentrebat e un fel de-a spune pentru […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2103,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[267,270,32,4],"tags":[112,677,2069,1552,2043,419,549,678,126,2067,2063,550,1254,2064,2065,427,872,100,21,1406,2066,334,1279,1253,105,818,752,102,420,973,214],"class_list":["post-2102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-externe","category-opinii","category-stil_de_viata","tag-casa-alba","tag-china","tag-coreea-de-sud","tag-cutia-pandorei","tag-damasc","tag-dan-diaconu","tag-donald-trump","tag-europa","tag-federatia-rusa","tag-gaze-naturale","tag-generalul-iranian-soleimani","tag-george-soros","tag-hamas","tag-hidrocarburi","tag-hub-energetic","tag-iran","tag-japonia","tag-joe-biden","tag-nato","tag-petrol","tag-pretul-petrolului","tag-razboi-gaza","tag-razboi-iran","tag-razboi-israel-fasia-gaza","tag-razboi-ucraina","tag-recep-tayyip-erdogan","tag-siria","tag-sua","tag-trenduri-economice","tag-turcia","tag-vladimir-putin"],"yoast_head":"\nDe ce americanii vor s\u0103-i ia juc\u0103riile lui Bibi \u0219i de ce el nu se las\u0103 p\u0103c\u0103lit? Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2102\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"De ce americanii vor s\u0103-i ia juc\u0103riile lui Bibi \u0219i de ce el nu se las\u0103 p\u0103c\u0103lit? Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com S\u0103 \u00eencepem cu \u00eenceputul. Am v\u0103zut un narativ victorios vehiculat de-a lungul \u0219i de-a latul mediei, cum c\u0103 dup\u0103 \u201eatacul m\u00e2r\u0219av\u201d al Iranului \u00eentreg Occidentul s-a ar\u0103tat solidar cu Israelul. Instantaneu m-am \u00eentrebat: \u201eUnde-am mai auzit eu asta?\u201d. 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Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2102","og_locale":"ro_RO","og_type":"article","og_title":"De ce americanii vor s\u0103-i ia juc\u0103riile lui Bibi \u0219i de ce el nu se las\u0103 p\u0103c\u0103lit? Opinia lui Dan Diaconu - RoExit","og_description":"Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com S\u0103 \u00eencepem cu \u00eenceputul. Am v\u0103zut un narativ victorios vehiculat de-a lungul \u0219i de-a latul mediei, cum c\u0103 dup\u0103 \u201eatacul m\u00e2r\u0219av\u201d al Iranului \u00eentreg Occidentul s-a ar\u0103tat solidar cu Israelul. Instantaneu m-am \u00eentrebat: \u201eUnde-am mai auzit eu asta?\u201d. 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