{"id":2155,"date":"2024-04-26T19:03:30","date_gmt":"2024-04-26T19:03:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2155"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:48:48","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:48:48","slug":"despre-raspunsul-iranului-la-atacul-israelian-asupra-ambasadei-sale-din-damasc-opinia-lui-chiazna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2155","title":{"rendered":"Despre r\u0103spunsul Iranului la atacul israelian asupra ambasadei sale din Damasc. Opinia lui Chiazna"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de G. Chiazna ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

A trecut ceva timp, o s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 \u2013 zece zile. Israel a atacat o cl\u0103dire vecin\u0103 cu ambasada Iranului \u00een Damasc. A omor\u00e2t doi generali iranieni \u015fi probabil al\u0163i lupt\u0103tori locali.<\/p>\n

Siria nu a r\u0103spuns cu nimic deoarece nu prea are cu ce. De o bun\u0103 perioad\u0103, de c\u00e2nd Assad a preluat puterea, pare cumva s\u0103 existe un pact \u00eentre ru\u015fi \u015fi evrei \u00een sensul c\u0103 Israel nu love\u015fte \u00een Assad dar love\u015fte \u00een proxy-urile Iranului din zon\u0103. Cum de permite Assad a\u015fa ceva? Assad nu are nicio putere, el este un lider local doar cu numele, are o gard\u0103 de corp, are control asupra armatei, dar armata este mic\u0103, prost pl\u0103tit\u0103 \u015fi are cea mai mult\u0103 treab\u0103 \u00een nord, \u00een Turkmenistan.<\/p>\n

\"Screenshot-2024-04-26-003044
Sursa: https:\/\/syria.liveuamap.com\/<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Iat\u0103 de exemplu ast\u0103zi, care e situa\u0163ia fierbinte \u00een Siria. Assad folose\u015fte artileria \u015fi dronele ca s\u0103 loveasc\u0103 \u00een rebelii din Turkmenistan. Este ajutat de avioanele ruse\u015fti care din c\u00e2nd \u00een c\u00e2nd mai bombardeaz\u0103 \u015fi ele, dar nu \u015ftiu \u00een ce m\u0103sur\u0103 ru\u015fii particip\u0103 direct la lupte \u015fi nici c\u00e2t de intense sunt luptele.<\/p>\n

Cu verde \u00een harta de mai sus sunt turkmenii (turci r\u0103ma\u015fi \u00een Siria c\u00e2nd s-au t\u0103iat grani\u0163ele) care domin\u0103 provinciile de nord: Latakia, Idlib \u015fi Aleppo. Nu \u015ftiu nici \u00een ce m\u0103sur\u0103 turcii \u00eei mai ajut\u0103 \u015fi mai sper\u0103 s\u0103 \u00eei controleze deoarece golul de putere l\u0103sat de distrugerea armatei Siriei de c\u0103tre americani a fost ocupat de triburi locale \u015fi organiza\u0163ii paramilitare cu vaste interese. Altfel spus, este relativ o jungl\u0103. De\u015fi religio\u015fi, turcmenii nu sunt suficient de religio\u015fi c\u00e2t s\u0103 aib\u0103 lideri religio\u015fi care s\u0103 \u00eei unifice \u00eempotriva \u201cmarelui Satan\u201d, oricare ar fi \u0103la: Assad \u00eenainte, SUA, Rusia etc. De departe, b\u0103nuiala mea este c\u0103 interesul este economic, fiecare grupare \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 domine \u015fi s\u0103 prind\u0103 putere pentru a controla economic regiunea.<\/p>\n

Cu galben sunt kurzii care s-au extins ajuta\u0163i de americani, \u015fi fiind suficient de organiza\u0163i pentru a func\u0163iona economic \u015fi a extrage petrol pentru armata american\u0103 care le d\u0103 \u00een schimb arme \u015fi ceva dolari. Assad se \u00een\u0163elege bine \u00een ultimul timp cu kurzii \u00een sensul c\u0103 au un du\u015fman comun: turkmenii \u015fi ISIS. Cu turcii, Assad \u00eenc\u0103 nu e \u00eemp\u0103cat deoarece turcii nu reu\u015fesc s\u0103 repare ce au stricat, anume Turkmenistanul este opera lor. Turcii au sperat s\u0103 pun\u0103 ei m\u00e2na pe aceast\u0103 provincie, dar ei abia reu\u015fesc s\u0103 \u0163in\u0103 kurzii \u00een fr\u00e2ie. Nu exagerez dac\u0103 spun c\u0103 fiecare are ceva de \u00eemp\u0103r\u0163it cu fiecare \u00een aceast\u0103 regiune. Predic\u0163ia mea este c\u0103 SUA se va retrage, kurzii vor fi \u00eenghi\u0163i\u0163i de turci, Assad va face pace cu turcii \u015fi Turkmenistanul va reveni sub controlul lui Assad, mai ales dup\u0103 ce ru\u015fii vor termina cu Ucraina \u015fi vor putea aloca mai multe resurse. Ru\u015fii nu au alt interes dec\u00e2t men\u0163inerea securit\u0103\u0163ii bazei de la Latakia \u015fi bine\u00een\u0163eles c\u00e2\u015ftigarea unui ban. Nu ar avea sens s\u0103 men\u0163in\u0103 aceast\u0103 baz\u0103 \u015fi s\u0103 aloce ei resurse, dac\u0103 nu ar \u015fi c\u00e2\u015ftiga. La fel cum americanii s-au lipit de kurzi, ru\u015fii s-au lipit de Assad \u00een primul r\u00e2nd pentru a c\u00e2\u015ftiga un ban. Nu cred personal c\u0103 acea baz\u0103 de la Latakia are mare greutate strategic\u0103 din punct de vedere militar. Este o m\u00e2ndrie pentru ru\u015fi, dar militar nu are nicio relevan\u0163\u0103. \u00cen caz de nevoie, ru\u015fii nu o pot folosi, baza poate fi anihilat\u0103 foarte u\u015for de 2-3 avioane ale Israelului. De asemenea, mai cred c\u0103 ru\u015fii au \u00eencercat s\u0103 securizeze zona pentru a da o m\u00e2n\u0103 de ajutor chinezilor. Deocamdat\u0103 au reu\u015fit. F\u0103r\u0103 ei, prim\u0103vara arab\u0103 trecea de Siria \u015fi intra \u00een Turcia, t\u0103ind accesul chinezilor \u00een Europa. Ru\u015fii l-au salvat pe Erdogan nu doar cu atentatul, ci \u015fi cu Siria unde ISIS era pl\u0103nuit s\u0103 intre la turci dup\u0103 ce termina Siria.<\/p>\n

Am f\u0103cut aceast\u0103 scurt\u0103 demonstra\u0163ie pentru a explica de ce ru\u015fii nu se implic\u0103 \u00een loviturile Israelului din Siria, deoarece misiunea lor a fost s\u0103 opreasc\u0103 \u00een Siria prim\u0103vara arab\u0103 care s\u0103 nu destabilizeze Turcia. Vrem nu vrem, Turcia este o \u0163ar\u0103 important\u0103 a BRICS \u015fi chiar dac\u0103 deocamdat\u0103 alt rol nu are dec\u00e2t s\u0103 fie hub pentru m\u0103rfurile chineze\u015fti \u015fi pentru materia prim\u0103 a ru\u015filor, c\u00e2nd americanii vor cere turcilor s\u0103 aplice sanc\u0163iunile, dac\u0103 va fi pus\u0103 s\u0103 aleag\u0103, Turcia va alege BRICS. Siria este doar un teritoriu la sud de Turcia pentru ru\u015fi.<\/p>\n

Prin urmare Israelul poate s\u0103 fac\u0103 cam ce vrea \u00een sudul Siriei, mai ales aerian. Chiar crede\u0163i c\u0103 nu ar putea ru\u015fii s\u0103 \u00eei dea lui Assad c\u00e2teva antiaeriene? Chiar crede\u0163i c\u0103 Assad nu le-ar folosi? Dar Assad, repet, este doar un automaton, o figur\u0103 familiar\u0103, pus\u0103 s\u0103 joace rolul de pre\u015fedinte, dar politica Siriei este politica Rusiei. \u015ei deocamdat\u0103 Rusia nu se poate b\u0103ga \u00een ap\u0103rarea Iranului deoarece \u00een primul r\u00e2nd, Iranul nu are nevoie, cel pu\u0163in deocamdat\u0103, de ajutorul Rusiei. Din contr\u0103, Rusia are nevoie de ajutorul Iranului!<\/p>\n

Colaborarea Rusiei cu Iranul nu este doar la nivel de schimb de armament sau comer\u0163 economic. Foarte probabil, dup\u0103 mine, iranul are nucleare donate de ru\u015fi \u015fi poate chiar operate de ru\u015fi. A\u015fa cum Rusia a dus nucleare \u00een Belarus, dar acolo a declarat pentru a fi clar tuturor, tot a\u015fa Rusia a dus nucleare \u015fi \u00een Iran. Iranul a dat Rusiei drone deoarece \u00een loc s\u0103 produc\u0103 drone, Rusia produce nucleare \u015fi hypoersonice. \u015ei tancuri, \u015fi avioane. Au mii de tancuri \u015fi mii de avioane. Auzim pe toate televiziunile c\u00e2nd un avion rusesc cade \u015fi ucrainienii aplaud\u0103 veseli. Dar Rusia mai are mii de avioane care a\u015fteapt\u0103 s\u0103 fie folosite. Ru\u015fii nu au pilo\u0163i c\u00e2te avioane au. Majoritatea sunt vechi, dar multe sunt noi. Industria lor \u00eenc\u0103 func\u0163ioneaz\u0103 \u015fi exporturile duduie. Mare parte din produc\u0163ia de armament a Rusiei merge \u00een afar\u0103. De ce? Deoarece economic ru\u015fii nu sunt prea dezvolta\u0163i \u015fi au nevoie de bani, deci trebuie s\u0103 v\u00e2nd\u0103 arme. Petrolul este ieftin \u015fi ideal ar fi ca ru\u015fii s\u0103 fac\u0103 produse de valoare adaugat\u0103 mai mare. Ei bine, nu fac ma\u015fini, nu fac calculatoare, dar fac arme. 3.5 milioane de ru\u015fi lucreaz\u0103 \u00een produc\u0163ia de arme \u00een 2024. Prin compara\u0163ie, \u00een industria auto din Rom\u00e2nia lucreaz\u0103 cam 110.000 de oameni.<\/p>\n

S\u0103 trecem acum la r\u0103spunsul Iranului.<\/p>\n

Israel va r\u0103spunde<\/strong><\/p>\n

De\u015fi a trecut ceva timp \u015fi a fost o incursiune a unor drone \u00een Iran, eu nu cred c\u0103 Israel nu va r\u0103spunde atacului iranienilor. Este doar chestiune de timp, \u00eenc\u0103 calculeaz\u0103 \u015fi preg\u0103tesc r\u0103spunsul \u015fi a\u015fteapt\u0103 ca americanii s\u0103 mai aduc\u0103 asseturi \u00een zon\u0103 pentru a ap\u0103ra \u015fi mai bine Israelul \u00een urma escalad\u0103rii care va urma.<\/p>\n

A\u015fadar, dup\u0103 atacul asupra ambasadei, Iranul a preg\u0103tit un r\u0103spuns, a anun\u0163at americanii, a dat termen \u015fi unele detalii \u015fi astfel a permis o ap\u0103rare cum trebuie. At\u00e2t americanii, c\u00e2t \u015fi britanicii \u015fi francezii, \u015fi-au trimis unit\u0103\u0163i anti-aeriene \u00een Israel \u015fi \u00een Iordania pentru a ap\u0103ra Israelul de atacul Iranului. Nu se \u015ftia amploarea acestuia de\u015fi se \u015ftia momentul \u015fi anumite detalii, anume c\u0103 va fi atacat Israelul, dar nu baze americane din Israel sau din Irak sau din alte \u0163\u0103ri din zona golfului.<\/p>\n

De ce a anun\u0163at Iran ce va face dinainte?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Screenshot-2024-04-26-010044<\/figure>\n

Ave\u0163i \u00een imaginea de sus o hart\u0103 cu bazele americane din zon\u0103. Iranul a anun\u0163at c\u00e2nd va ataca \u015fi pe cine, deoarece altfel americanii se puteau a\u015ftepta s\u0103 fie ataca\u0163i ei. C\u00e2nd Iranul urma s\u0103 lanseze 300 de rachete, dac\u0103 americanii nu erau informa\u0163i, poate se temeau c\u0103 sunt atacate bazele lor \u015fi astfel, r\u0103spundeau \u015fi ei acestui atac.<\/p>\n

Anun\u0163\u00e2nd dinainte c\u00e2nd \u015fi unde va lovi, Iranul a evitat un r\u0103spuns din partea SUA. De altfel, pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 anun\u0163urile publice foarte probabil au existat comunic\u0103ri \u015fi pe canale directe. De asemenea, anun\u0163\u00e2nd atacul, Iranul a manifestat lipsa de dorin\u0163\u0103 de escaladare, ceea ce a convenit SUA. Astfel SUA au putut s\u0103 disloce asseturi importante c\u0103tre Israel \u00een expectativa atacului.<\/p>\n

Uit\u00e2ndu-ne la \u00eentreaga opera\u0163iune, to\u0163i au ie\u015fit bine, adic\u0103 Iran a dat un r\u0103spuns masiv, a ar\u0103tat \u00een primul r\u00e2nd popula\u0163iei ce poate \u015fi c\u0103 este o putere, SUA au ap\u0103rat Israelul, civili din Israel nu au p\u0103\u0163it nimic. Dar, lovitura a f\u0103cut totu\u015fi o demonstra\u0163ie important\u0103: Iranul a penetrat ap\u0103rarea Israelului chiar anun\u0163\u00e2nd atacul dinainte \u015fi chiar d\u00e2nd timp alia\u0163ilor Israelului s\u0103 \u00ee\u015fi aduc\u0103 \u00een zon\u0103 anti-aeriene. Pe scurt, lovitura a neutralizat scutul \u015fi a consumat toate anti-aerienele alia\u0163ilor pe dronele iraniene foarte ieftine, care au avut rolul de supra-\u00eenc\u0103rcare a ap\u0103r\u0103rii \u015fi \u00een final, c\u00e2teva rachete balistice au atins o baz\u0103 militar\u0103 din Israel, care de asemenea fusese declarat\u0103 ca \u0163int\u0103 \u00een avans.<\/p>\n

Este clar pentru cine \u00een\u0163elege c\u0103 anti-aeriana nu este 100% precis\u0103, ci poate fi supra\u00eenc\u0103rcat\u0103, indiferent de tehnologie, c\u0103 Iranul a demonstrat ceea ce a tot spus de at\u00e2tea ori: dac\u0103 doresc, vor rade Israelul de pe fa\u0163a p\u0103m\u00e2ntului. Motivul pentru care nu au f\u0103cut-o deocamdat\u0103 este deoarece nu sunt sinuciga\u015fi. Iranul e con\u015ftient c\u0103 dac\u0103 va rade Israelul \u015fi-o va fura de la SUA. De aceea, politica Iranului este s\u0103 se alieze \u00eempreun\u0103 cu Rusia \u015fi China \u015fi s\u0103 a\u015ftepte fie implozia SUA (cel mai probabil scenariu), fie r\u0103zboiul total.<\/p>\n

Dilema mea legat\u0103 de Iran<\/strong><\/p>\n

Singura mea dilem\u0103 legat\u0103 de Iran nu este c\u0103 nu ar putea rade Israelul, ci este ce procent din armamentul lor a fost folosit cu ocazia acestui atac. Este greu de zis, dar totu\u015fi 300 de drone \u015fi rachete nu sunt o cantitate neglijabil\u0103. Rom\u00e2nia de exemplu, nu are nici jum\u0103tate din acest arsenal. Iranul e posibil s\u0103 aib\u0103. Faptul c\u0103 Iranul a dat Rusiei drone, demonstreaz\u0103 c\u0103 au surplus. Nu se riscau aiurea, \u00een ditamai tensiuni, s\u0103 dea Rusiei din propriile arme dac\u0103 nu erau siguri fie c\u0103 au suficiente, fie c\u0103 pot s\u0103 \u00eenlocuiasc\u0103 rapid.<\/p>\n

Dar succesul opera\u0163iunii, succes datorat faptului c\u0103 dup\u0103 sutele de drone menite s\u0103 consume ap\u0103rarea, ultimele rachete care \u0163inteau baza au ajuns la destina\u0163ie putea s\u0103 aib\u0103 un cu totul alt deznod\u0103m\u00e2nt. Cu siguran\u0163\u0103 Iranul nu putea prevedea dinainte acest succes. Ei poate au vrut s\u0103 arate maxim artificii, s\u0103 fac\u0103 multe lans\u0103ri pentru a ar\u0103ta popula\u0163iei c\u0103 au multe rachete. E de bun sim\u0163 s\u0103 presupunem c\u0103 b\u0103nuiau \u015fi ei c\u0103, mai ales fiind dat\u0103 expectativa, Israelul se va ap\u0103ra bine, SUA vor pune um\u0103rul, vor aduce portavioane, baterii anti-aeriene etc. Faptul c\u0103 americanii au apelat \u015fi la britanici \u015fi la francezi arat\u0103 c\u0103 amenin\u0163area asupra Israelului a fost una important\u0103 \u015fi americanii nu s-au riscat: au adus \u00een zon\u0103 maxim ce puteau de la to\u0163i alia\u0163ii.<\/p>\n

Dar a doua zi c\u00e2nd deja \u015ftiam la TV ce s-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat, Iranul putea continua atacurile \u015fi Israel ar fi r\u0103mas \u00een fundul gol. Foarte probabil, dac\u0103 Iranul ar fi trimis a doua zi \u00eenc\u0103 300 de drone, rata de dobor\u00e2re a acestora nu mai era 98%, ci s\u0103 zicem 50%. Ceea ce \u00eensemna c\u0103 150 de drone puteau lovi \u00een ora\u015fele Israelului, \u00een Tel Aviv, \u00een bazele militare etc.<\/p>\n

Faptul c\u0103 Iran nu a profitat de acest moment arat\u0103 c\u0103 totu\u015fi le este fric\u0103 de consecin\u0163e \u015fi nu vor s\u0103 escaladeze sau nu au motiva\u0163ia suficient\u0103 s\u0103 escaladeze.<\/p>\n

Dar Israel, este obligat s\u0103 escaladeze \u015fi s\u0103 rezolve chestiunea Iranului. Singura problem\u0103 pentru ei este c\u0103 SUA nu au motiva\u0163ia s\u0103 \u00eei ajute \u00eentr-un r\u0103zboi cu Iranul. Dar ceasul tic\u0103ie \u015fi sprijinul sionist din SUA scade: mi\u015fcarea Free Palestine \u00een SUA cre\u015fte ca un virus \u015fi va domina cu siguran\u0163\u0103 discursul \u00een aceast\u0103 campanie. De\u015fi evreii joac\u0103 la ambele capete \u015fi au cump\u0103rat ambii pre\u015fedin\u0163i \u015fi de\u015fi domin\u0103 presa, f\u0103r\u0103 propagand\u0103 nu pot produce un r\u0103zboi. Nu pot avea garan\u0163ia c\u0103 la nevoie, SUA va folosi nuclearele asupra Iranului, deoarece am explicat \u00eentr-un articol trecut c\u0103 asupra Iranului nu exist\u0103 alternativ\u0103 dec\u00e2t nuclearele. Evident c\u0103 se pot face opera\u0163iuni de pedepsire, se pot bombarda ora\u015fe, dar asta nu va face dec\u00e2t s\u0103 coalizeze popula\u0163ia \u00een jurul puterii, s\u0103 st\u00e2rneasc\u0103 ura fa\u0163\u0103 de Marele Satan \u015fi s\u0103 justifice atacurile Iranului asupra Israelului la un cu totul nivel. \u015ei a\u015fa cum vedem, Iranul a demonstrat c\u0103 poate f\u0103r\u0103 ca probabil s\u0103 se a\u015ftepte. Nu cred c\u0103 iranienii se a\u015fteptau ca ultimele 4-5 rachete balistice lansate asupra bazelor militare vor avea succes.<\/p>\n

Nu \u015ftim dac\u0103 Iran a pl\u0103nuit dinainte c\u00e2te drone s\u0103 foloseasc\u0103. E posibil ca atacul s\u0103 fii fost unul calculat, \u00een sensul c\u0103 au trimis drone, p\u00e2n\u0103 c\u00e2nd au v\u0103zut c\u0103 ap\u0103rarea anti-aerian\u0103 nu mai poate, apoi au mai trimis 4-5 rachete demonstrative asupra acelei baze militare.<\/p>\n

Israel nu poate r\u0103m\u00e2ne cu m\u00e2inile \u00een s\u00e2n. De\u015fi a terminat cu Gaza \u015fi a sc\u0103pat de riscurile unor escalad\u0103ri de la alte state musulmane din zon\u0103, de\u015fi vecinii controla\u0163i cum ar fi Iordania, Egiptul \u015fi chiar Turcia nu au mi\u015fcat un deget \u015fi nici m\u0103care nu au t\u0103iat rela\u0163iile diplomatice cu Israelul, mai r\u0103m\u00e2ne riscul legat de Iran. Care este un risc existen\u0163ial pentru statul evreu. Sincer, nu credeam asta p\u00e2n\u0103 acum, credeam c\u0103 Israel doar simuleaz\u0103 aceaste riscuri \u015fi conflictul cu Iranul pentru a justifica ajutorul continuu american \u015fi loviturile ocazionale asupra asseturilor iraniene din zon\u0103. Dar iat\u0103 c\u0103 au dreptate: Iranul poate distruge Israelul \u015fi foarte probabil, dac\u0103 Iranul poate \u015fi Turcia poate. Israel chiar este mic \u015fi cum SUA este \u00een sc\u0103dere \u015fi nu mai poate controla mare lucru, cum China deja domn\u0103 economic golful \u015fi BRICS este \u00een cre\u015ftere, periferia va avea de suferit.<\/p>\n

A\u015fa cum Ucraina de\u015fi era sub tutela SUA a picat, vedem acum cum Israelul se zbate pentru supravie\u0163uire \u015fi m\u00e2ine va veni vremea noastr\u0103 s\u0103 vedem \u015fi s\u0103 \u00een\u0163elegem pe pielea noastr\u0103 c\u0103 Imperiul este la apus \u015fi periferia arde, iar noi suntem periferie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de G. Chiazna ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com A trecut ceva timp, o s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 \u2013 zece zile. Israel a atacat o cl\u0103dire vecin\u0103 cu ambasada Iranului \u00een Damasc. A omor\u00e2t doi generali iranieni \u015fi probabil al\u0163i lupt\u0103tori locali. Siria nu a r\u0103spuns cu nimic deoarece nu prea are cu ce. De o bun\u0103 perioad\u0103, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2156,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[270,32,4],"tags":[20,310,677,2043,1371,2208,126,196,426,427,926,937,817,21,779,1731,1895,972,2206,105,143,752,102,2207,973,2062,104],"class_list":["post-2155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-externe","category-opinii","category-stil_de_viata","tag-brics","tag-chiazna-ro","tag-china","tag-damasc","tag-drone","tag-fasia-gaza","tag-federatia-rusa","tag-gigel-chiazna","tag-irak","tag-iran","tag-isis","tag-israel","tag-kurdistan","tag-nato","tag-palestina","tag-rachete-balistice","tag-razboi-israel-iran","tag-razboi-nuclear","tag-razboi-orientul-mijlociu","tag-razboi-ucraina","tag-romania","tag-siria","tag-sua","tag-tel-aviv","tag-turcia","tag-turkmenistan","tag-ucraina"],"yoast_head":"\nDespre r\u0103spunsul Iranului la atacul israelian asupra ambasadei sale din Damasc. 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