{"id":2198,"date":"2024-05-03T14:36:13","date_gmt":"2024-05-03T14:36:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2198"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:48:47","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:48:47","slug":"optiunile-chinei-opinia-lui-chiazna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2198","title":{"rendered":"Op\u021biunile Chinei. Opinia lui Chiazna"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de G. Chiazna ini\u021bial pe Chiazna.ro<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Am tot discutat pe blog despre faptul c\u0103 China este singurul risc existen\u0163ial pentru Imperiu \u015fi am explicat cum deocamdat\u0103 strategia aleas\u0103 de chinezi este dominarea economic\u0103 \u00eentr-o at\u00e2t de mare m\u0103sur\u0103 \u00eenc\u00e2t Imperiul va fi efectiv asimilat \u015fi politic \u015fi militar a\u015fa cum este deja asimilat economic. C\u0103ci, dac\u0103 credem c\u0103 b\u0103ncile americane \u015fi sistemul financiar bazat pe dolar mai poate supravie\u0163ui c\u00e2nd China va declara c\u0103 nu mai accept\u0103 pl\u0103\u0163ile \u00een dolari, nu \u015ftim pe ce lume tr\u0103im.<\/p>\n

Solu\u0163ia \u201cnuclear\u0103\u201d pentru China, adic\u0103 renun\u0163area la dolar, nu va fi folosit\u0103 dec\u00e2t \u00een cazul unui r\u0103zboi \u00een Taiwan, de\u015fi atunci vor mai exista \u00een continuare variante, alternative, la r\u0103zboiul total economic care ar duce inevitabil la un r\u0103zboi mondial deoarece, f\u0103r\u0103 China, lumea nu poate supravie\u0163ui: f\u0103r\u0103 produc\u0163ia ieftin\u0103 din China, \u00eentreg Vestul va intra \u00een implozie economic\u0103 total\u0103, care nici nu poate fi descris\u0103 acum.<\/p>\n

Cel mai clar semn al incompeten\u0163ei vestului de revenire economic\u0103 \u00een al 12-lea ceas este domeniul militar. Rusia produce de 3 ori mai multe obuze de artilerie dec\u00e2t \u00eentreg Vestul, adic\u0103 SUA + Europa de Vest (conform CNN). Aten\u0163ia asupra obuzelor este important\u0103 deoarece artileria este principala arm\u0103 de avans a ru\u015filor \u015fi cheia succesului. Este estimat c\u0103 peste 80% dintre r\u0103ni\u0163ii \u015fi mor\u0163ii \u00een r\u0103zboi sunt cauza\u0163i de obuzele de artilerie \u015fi artileria e folosit\u0103 pentru a lovi direct \u00een pozi\u0163iile de ap\u0103rare ale inamicului. Combinat\u0103 cu dronele, artileria a devenit practic arma #1 deoarece are cel mai bun randament cost\/efect scontat. Adic\u0103, dec\u00e2t s\u0103 trimit\u0103 \u00een fa\u0163\u0103 un tanc de ultima genera\u0163ie care cost\u0103 o avere \u015fi cu 5-6 solda\u0163i \u00een care s-au investit luni bune de antrenament, ru\u015fii prefer\u0103 s\u0103 trimit\u0103 dronele s\u0103 urm\u0103reasc\u0103 terenul \u015fi apoi s\u0103 lanseze bombe. Nu de pu\u0163ine ori am v\u0103zut folosirea artileriei chiar \u00eempotriva unor grupuri de solda\u0163i, ceea ce \u00een r\u0103zboaiele anterioare se folosea doar pentru asalt.<\/p>\n

Expansiunea economic\u0103 a Chinei nu poate \u00eens\u0103 s\u0103 \u00eei duc\u0103 mai departe pe chinezi \u00een realizarea obiectivului lor principal: recuperarea Taiwan-ului. De\u015fi mult\u0103 vreme am crezut c\u0103 atacarea Taiwan-ului va avea loc acest an deoarece China este gata \u015fi, a\u015fa cum ru\u015fii s-au gr\u0103bit s\u0103 atace Ucraina deoarece americanii \u00eei umpleau de arme pe ucraineni, chinezii se tem de dotarea Taiwanului cu arme de c\u0103tre SUA \u015fi cre\u015fterea \u00eencrederii acestora \u00een protec\u0163ia american\u0103, c\u00e2nd contextul este clar \u015fi inten\u0163iile sunt de asemenea de multe ori repetate, asumate \u015fi toat\u0103 preg\u0103tirea converge \u00een acea direc\u0163ie, e chiar de mirare ezitarea chinezilor. Personal, nu o pun dec\u00e2t pe la\u015fitatea acestora \u015fi lipsa de curaj sold\u0103\u0163esc al generalilor. Ceea ce nu a fost cazul la ru\u015fi.<\/p>\n

Dar China are op\u0163iuni \u015fi, dac\u0103 armata este bleag\u0103 \u015fi partidul nu se poate baza pe ea, partidul se va folosi de ce \u015ftie mai bine: planificare strategic\u0103 economic\u0103 pe termen lung. Succesul economic actual al Chinei nu a venit peste noapte, nu a venit din senin, nu a venit deoarece chinezii sunt muncitori. Av\u00e2nd cea mai mare popula\u0163ie a lumii, chinezii au avut \u015fi ceva genii care au g\u00e2ndit inventarea unui regim economic care s\u0103 func\u0163ioneze eficient \u00een paralel cu o oarecare deschidere, dar care s\u0103 men\u0163in\u0103 ideologia \u015fi sistemul vechi la conducere. Planul a fost destul de complex, a vizat mimarea unei deschideri la un moment dat, \u00eenchiderea porti\u0163elor c\u00e2nd asimilarea tehnologiei vestului a fost finalizat\u0103 \u015fi nu mai era nevoie de investi\u0163ii str\u0103ine \u015fi crearea de noi pie\u0163e atunci c\u00e2nd expunerea pe pie\u0163ele din vest a fost prea mare.<\/p>\n

Principala op\u0163iune a Chinei \u00een r\u0103zboiul cu SUA este deschiderea frontului din Coreea de Nord. Spre deosebire de generalii chinezi la\u015fi, nord-coreenii sunt militari\u015fti turba\u0163i care ar s\u0103ri la un r\u0103zboi peste noapte. Cum se poate \u00eent\u00e2mpla asta? Dup\u0103 cum \u015ftim, tehnic coreenii sunt \u00eenc\u0103 \u00een stare de r\u0103zboi, cei din sud cu cei din nord. Actuala pace este doar un armisti\u0163iu care poate \u00eens\u0103 fi terminat peste noapte \u015fi represaliile, reluate. \u00centr-adev\u0103r, \u015fi sudul este preg\u0103tit, dar, a\u015fa cum am v\u0103zut \u00een Ucraina, planurile de r\u0103zboi dureaz\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 la prima b\u0103t\u0103lie deoarece ce conteaz\u0103 \u00een cele din urm\u0103 este economia de r\u0103zboi, spatele logistic, armamentul, num\u0103rul de solda\u0163i, preg\u0103tirea acestora.<\/p>\n

Nu e greu s\u0103 presupunem c\u0103, \u00eentr-un r\u0103zboi \u00eentre cele dou\u0103 tabere, China va sus\u0163ine masiv economic Nordul \u015fi ar fi culmea ca, la at\u00e2\u0163ia ani dup\u0103 \u00eenghe\u0163area conflictului, s\u0103 nu aib\u0103 un plan concret de sus\u0163inere a coreenilor din nord. \u0162in s\u0103 subliniez c\u0103 performan\u0163a nordului, total datorat\u0103 ajutorului chinezilor \u015fi URSS-ului, a fost una spectaculoas\u0103. Practic, nord-coreenii au luptat direct cu SUA, cu solda\u0163i americani, cu armamentul american. Faptul c\u0103 acolo s-a tras linia a fost o constr\u00e2ngere militar\u0103 \u015fi o oboseal\u0103 a r\u0103zboiului \u00een sensul c\u0103 at\u00e2t SUA, c\u00e2t \u015fi comuni\u015ftii au pierdut prea mult \u015fi orice schimbare \u00eentr-o anume direc\u0163ie a grani\u0163elor ar fi costat mult prea mult \u015fi nu ar fi oferit mari perspective \u00een sensul speran\u0163ei c\u0103 o anume parte poate ob\u0163ine victoria. Singura variant\u0103 pentru americani ar fi fost folosirea nuclearei, dar, din cauza riscului reciproc de anihilare, evident c\u0103 aceast\u0103 variant\u0103 a fost scoas\u0103 din calcul \u015fi atunci, a\u015fa cum nici acum SUA nu vor folosi nucleare ca s\u0103 apere Rom\u00e2nia, numai idio\u0163ii de pe la TV mai m\u0103c\u0103ne asemenea abera\u0163ii.<\/p>\n

Ma\u015fin\u0103ria economic\u0103 a Chinei are cu totul alte capacit\u0103\u0163i ast\u0103zi dec\u00e2t \u00een timpul r\u0103zboiului coreean. Nu este greu de calculat c\u0103 re\u00eenc\u0103lzirea acestui r\u0103zboi este o variant\u0103 la atacarea direct\u0103 a Taiwanului care ar risca distrugerea poten\u0163ialului economic care este, evident, dorit de chinezi \u015fi care va fi doar o ultim\u0103 variant\u0103. A\u015fa cum vedem c\u0103 nici ru\u015fii nu au aplicat prea multe distrugeri asupra capacit\u0103\u0163ilor economice din Ucraina, loviturile fiind punctuale, tot a\u015fa \u015fi chinezii \u00ee\u015fi vor dori s\u0103 cucereasc\u0103 Taiwanul f\u0103r\u0103 a pierde poten\u0163ialul economic \u015fi uman. Pentru a convinge \u00eens\u0103 Taiwanul, chinezii au nevoie s\u0103 dea o lec\u0163ie Imperiului, s\u0103 arate c\u0103 Imperiul nu \u00ee\u015fi mai poate ap\u0103ra coloniile. Ucraina poate fi o lec\u0163ie, de\u015fi victoria de aici va fi a ru\u015filor, nu a chinezilor \u015fi, de\u015fi \u00eenfr\u00e2ngerea va fi a Imperiului, e posibil ca taiwanezii s\u0103 nu fie \u201cconvin\u015fi\u201d chiar dac\u0103 Rusia va ocupa toat\u0103 Ucraina \u015fi poate chiar \u015fi \u0162\u0103rile Baltice.<\/p>\n

O mic\u0103 not\u0103 legat\u0103 de riscul ca SUA s\u0103 loveasc\u0103 aerian Koreea de Nord \u00een cazul reaprinderii conflictului: cred c\u0103 aceast\u0103 variant\u0103 este exclus\u0103 deoarece pierderile ar fi masive pentru SUA \u015fi, \u00een contextul taton\u0103rilor geostrategice din zon\u0103, ni\u015fte pierderi aeriene ale americanilor \u00een zon\u0103 ar \u00eensemna masiv pentru pierderea \u00eencrederii. Evident c\u0103 implicarea SUA va fi total\u0103 \u015fi poate chiar direct\u0103 \u00een acest r\u0103zboi din Coreea, poate chiar folosind solda\u0163ii g\u0103zdui\u0163i acolo. Dar, ca orice r\u0103zboi, nevoia de arme \u015fi de obuze va dicta cine c\u00e2\u015ftig\u0103 \u015fi, de departe, \u015fansele sunt ale Chinei, de vreme ce \u00een prezent Vestul nu poate face fa\u0163\u0103 nici Rusiei care, de\u015fi avea o industrie militar\u0103, nu se poate compara la capacit\u0103\u0163i cu China.<\/p>\n

Imagina\u0163i-v\u0103 ce va \u00eensemna s\u0103 se mobilizeze economia chinezilor pentru a sprijinii Coreea \u015fi c\u00e2t de repede vor putea domina tot ce poate aduce SUA. Ne putem a\u015ftepta ca Japonia s\u0103 ajute economic Coreea de Sud cu arme, dar Japonia nu are o industrie militar\u0103, a\u015fa cum nici Germania vedem c\u0103 nu poate ajuta Ucraina. \u015ei, \u00een plus, ca \u015fi Germania, \u00een cazul \u00eenceperii unui r\u0103zboi \u00een zon\u0103, Japonia se va g\u00e2ndi mai \u00eent\u00e2i la propriile nevoi \u015fi riscuri \u015fi nu va trimite la coreeni dec\u00e2t rebuturi \u015fi vechituri, a\u015fa cum fac acum vest-europenii. Dar vechiturile sunt inutile \u015fi vedem c\u0103, dup\u0103 doi ani de r\u0103zboi, legile economice de baz\u0103, ca \u015fi cele militare, \u00eencep s\u0103 func\u0163ioneze \u015fi avansul ru\u015filor este de neoprit.<\/p>\n

Avansul ru\u015filor va fi un semnal \u015fi pentru chinezi c\u0103 pot replica aventura american\u0103 \u00een Ucraina, prin inversare strategic\u0103, pe frontul din Coreea unde, paradoxal, poate teama coreenilor din nord de a fi folosi\u0163i pe post de carne de tun este singura explica\u0163ie de ce p\u00e2n\u0103 acum China nu a \u00eencercat mai \u00eent\u00e2i s\u0103 rezolve aici situa\u0163ia, \u00eenainte de a-\u015fi \u00eendrepta focusul spre Taiwan. Cu adev\u0103rat, Taiwan este un pe\u015fte mult mai mare \u015fi mai bun \u015fi, poate, de aceea chinezii g\u00e2ndesc \u201cbig\u201d. C\u00e2\u015ftigarea Taiwanului ar deschide calea chinezilor spre domina\u0163ia maritim\u0103 a Asiei de Sud-Est \u015fi ar securiza coridorul spre Golful Persic, de unde chinezii au nevoie de c\u00e2t mai mult petrol pe care, \u00eens\u0103, deocamdat\u0103 \u00eel pl\u0103tesc tot \u00een dolari deoarece, altfel, navele care duc petrol chinezilor vor avea mici probleme pe parcurs.<\/p>\n

Am comentat \u00een articolele trecute c\u0103 chinezii au ales la alternativa r\u0103zboiului, expansiunea terestr\u0103, prin Belt and Road Initiative \u015fi financiar\u0103, prin BRICS. Dar, acestea sunt doar preg\u0103tiri pentru r\u0103zboi deoarece, evident. \u00een caz de conflict, China are nevoie de op\u0163iuni de transport, at\u00e2t pentru continuarea exporturilor, c\u00e2t \u015fi a trupelor \u015fi echipamentelor de r\u0103zboi \u00een diversele puncte de interes prin care vor avea de contracarat expansiunea bazelor militare americane care, evident, vor face totul ca s\u0103 blocheze economia chinezilor \u00een caz de r\u0103zboi.<\/p>\n

Exist\u0103, \u00eens\u0103, limite de rentabilitate ale transportului terestru \u015fi, inevitabil, la un anumit moment, chinezii vor trebui s\u0103 flexeze mu\u015fchii \u015fi s\u0103 aleag\u0103 unde deschid un nou front. Lentoarea ru\u015filor \u00een ocuparea Ucrainei este poate unul dintre punctele slabe ale chinezilor \u015fi tentativa de blitz-krieg de la \u00eenceput nu m-ar mira s\u0103 fi fost una dintre constr\u00e2ngerile unui plan mai elaborat, sincronizat \u00eentre ru\u015fi \u015fi chinezi, iar e\u015fecul blitz-ului s\u0103 refocalizeze China de pe Taiwan, a c\u0103rui ocupare militar\u0103 este \u00eenc\u0103 prea costisitoare \u015fi nejustificat\u0103.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de G. Chiazna ini\u021bial pe Chiazna.ro Am tot discutat pe blog despre faptul c\u0103 China este singurul risc existen\u0163ial pentru Imperiu \u015fi am explicat cum deocamdat\u0103 strategia aleas\u0103 de chinezi este dominarea economic\u0103 \u00eentr-o at\u00e2t de mare m\u0103sur\u0103 \u00eenc\u00e2t Imperiul va fi efectiv asimilat \u015fi politic \u015fi militar a\u015fa cum este deja […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2200,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[267,270,32,290,4],"tags":[2244,20,310,677,2240,925,2069,126,403,196,2055,872,773,1406,2239,2243,105,2241,1712,143,102,821,12,216],"class_list":["post-2198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-externe","category-opinii","category-politica","category-stil_de_viata","tag-blitz-krieg","tag-brics","tag-chiazna-ro","tag-china","tag-conflicte-inghetate","tag-coreea-de-nord","tag-coreea-de-sud","tag-federatia-rusa","tag-germania","tag-gigel-chiazna","tag-golful-persic","tag-japonia","tag-partidul-comunist-chinez","tag-petrol","tag-planificare-economica","tag-pregatiri-de-razboi","tag-razboi-ucraina","tag-risc-reciproc-de-anihilare","tag-riscuri-existentiale","tag-romania","tag-sua","tag-taiwan","tag-ue","tag-urss"],"yoast_head":"\nOp\u021biunile Chinei. Opinia lui Chiazna - RoExit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2198\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Op\u021biunile Chinei. Opinia lui Chiazna - RoExit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Un articol publicat de G. 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