{"id":2220,"date":"2024-05-03T21:33:26","date_gmt":"2024-05-03T21:33:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2220"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:48:46","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:48:46","slug":"ce-ne-spun-pietrele-funerare-ale-imperiilor-despre-sua-opinia-lui-dan-diaconu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2220","title":{"rendered":"Ce ne spun pietrele funerare ale imperiilor despre SUA? Opinia lui Dan Diaconu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Ce au \u00een comun Imperiul Spaniol, Ancien r\u00e9gime, Imperiul Otoman \u0219i cel Britanic? Imperii care de-a lungul timpului au fost for\u021be de temut \u0219i care, \u00een mod inexplicabil, au devenit irelevante peste noapte. Putem c\u0103uta multe echivalen\u021be, dar, \u00een general, vom g\u0103si diferen\u021be majore \u00eentre toate aceste construc\u021bii. Doar c\u0103, dac\u0103 ve\u021bi s\u0103pa ad\u00e2nc, ve\u021bi g\u0103si o constant\u0103 pe care am putea-o numi \u201euciga\u0219ul ascuns\u201d sau \u201eindicatorul apusului imperiilor\u201d. Absolut toate aceste imperii, \u00eenainte de apusul lor, au avut o similaritate stranie: cheltuiala cu dob\u00e2nzile aferente \u00eemprumuturilor a fost mai mare dec\u00e2t bugetul armatei.<\/p>\n

A\u0219adar, ceea ce vedem acum \u00een SUA nu este o premier\u0103, ci un pattern istoric pe care ar fi trebuit s\u0103-l cunoa\u0219tem suficient de bine p\u00e2n\u0103 acum. Doar c\u0103, oameni fiind, trat\u0103m superficial similarit\u0103\u021bile istoriei, auto-condamn\u00e2ndu-ne la retr\u0103irea consecin\u021belor erorilor trecutului. E o boal\u0103 nemiloas\u0103 pe care mereu o trat\u0103m cu o inexplicabil\u0103 u\u0219urin\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n

De c\u00e2tva timp urm\u0103resc cu aten\u021bie declara\u021biile lui Jamie Dimon. Pentru cei care nu \u0219tiu, Jamie este \u0219eful colosului J.P. Morgan. \u00cen afara chestiunilor cunoscute, ceea ce mult\u0103 lume nu \u0219tie este c\u0103 lui Jamie Dimon nu i se g\u0103se\u0219te \u00eenlocuitor, cu toate c\u0103 se caut\u0103 unul de ani buni. Omul are o anumit\u0103 v\u00e2rst\u0103, se cam cere la pensie, dar nu poate pleca deoarece nu are un urma\u0219 capabil s\u0103 preia fr\u00e2iele mega-institu\u021biei.<\/p>\n

C\u00e2nd v\u0103 g\u00e2ndi\u021bi la J.P. Morgan trebuie s\u0103 \u00een\u021belege\u021bi c\u0103 este un v\u00e2rf al Imperiului, o institu\u021bie fundamental\u0103 de care depinde stabilitatea construc\u021biei imperiale. De aceea, de-a lungul timpului, Jamie a putut s\u0103-\u0219i fac\u0103 de cap, beneficiind de o stranie imunitate. M\u0103 rog, c\u0103 \u0219i-ar fi f\u0103cut de cap este percep\u021bia noastr\u0103. Este foarte posibil ca ac\u021biunile sale s\u0103 fi fost unele perfect \u00een linie cu politica Imperiului, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t imunitatea s\u0103-i fi venit ca efect al ordinelor pe care le-a executat. Sunt chestiuni complexe pe care nu le vom putea afla dec\u00e2t peste mult timp, c\u00e2nd se vor desecretiza arhivele. Ceea ce, \u00eens\u0103, e important s\u0103 \u00een\u021belegem este c\u0103 omul e unul de la v\u00e2rful esen\u021bial al Imperiului, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t opiniile sale trebuie ascultate cu aten\u021bie. De asemenea, mai trebuie s\u0103 con\u0219tientiz\u0103m c\u0103 trebuie privit pu\u021bin \u00een spatele declara\u021biilor sale \u00eentruc\u00e2t face parte din acea categorie de oameni care nu pot vorbi verzi \u0219i uscate, trebuind s\u0103-\u0219i ascund\u0103 mesajele sub aura unui limbaj pozitiv care, de multe ori, acoper\u0103 cu un ambalaj fascinant cele mai negre previziuni.<\/p>\n

Exist\u0103 dou\u0103 documente din care-mi extrag datele. Primul este scrisoarea c\u0103tre ac\u021bionari, iar cel\u0103lalt, un interviu-bomb\u0103 acordat recent WSJ. \u00cen viziunea lui Dimon exist\u0103 c\u00e2teva riscuri existen\u021biale pentru SUA. \u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, \u00eent\u0103rirea teribil\u0103 a adversarilor Imperiului, dar \u0219i polarizarea intern\u0103 care joac\u0103 un rol de destabilizare a SUA. Ambele elemente conduc la efecte negative pentru Imperiu. De asemenea, restr\u00e2ngerea cantitativ\u0103 (QT-Quantitative Tightening), cea care trage anual peste 900 miliarde de dolari din sistem, e un nivel necunoscut p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een prezent (la fel cum, a\u0219 spune eu, relaxarea cantitativ\u0103 a fost una la niveluri nev\u0103zute p\u00e2n\u0103 acum). Din punct de vedere geopolitic, Dimon vede perfect lucrurile, recunosc\u00e2nd elemente care sunt trecute sub t\u0103cere de politicieni. \u00cen\u021belege exact consecin\u021bele intr\u0103rii SUA \u00een problema ucrainean\u0103, identific\u00e2nd faptul c\u0103 o victorie a Rusiei este de fapt o victorie asupra NATO \u00een general \u0219i asupra SUA \u00een special, element care ar putea reseta sistemul de alian\u021be la nivel mondial. C\u00e2t despre China, Dimon spune c\u0103 aceasta nu este neutr\u0103 \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te r\u0103zboiul din Ucraina, chestiune c\u00e2t se poate de fals\u0103. \u00cen ciuda tuturor specula\u021biilor, China nu ajut\u0103 Rusia \u00een acest r\u0103zboi. Dac\u0103 ar face-o, balan\u021ba ar at\u00e2rna mult mai abrupt \u00een direc\u021bia Rusiei. De altfel, dac\u0103 ve\u021bi privi limpede situa\u021bia general\u0103, ve\u021bi constata c\u0103 \u00eens\u0103\u0219i Rusia nu vrea s\u0103 fie ajutat\u0103 de China altfel dec\u00e2t prin comer\u021bul normal. \u0218i e limpede de ce: Rusia ar ajunge s\u0103 depind\u0103 \u00eentr-o m\u0103sur\u0103 inacceptabil\u0103 de China.<\/p>\n

Revenind la alega\u021biile lui Dimon, o s\u0103 remarc pozi\u021bia sa \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te o posibil\u0103 confruntare \u00eentre SUA \u0219i China. Acesta spune c\u0103 SUA se pot confrunta cu China, dar asta \u201edup\u0103 ce trag ad\u00e2nc aer \u00een piept\u201d. E o formulare care m-a \u0219ocat \u0219i care, din nou, trebuie \u00een\u021beleas\u0103 ca atare. Desigur, imediat dup\u0103 a revenit suger\u00e2nd c\u0103 China are o pozi\u021bie fragil\u0103, import\u00e2nd peste 11 mld. barili de petrol pe zi, \u00een timp ce SUA \u00ee\u0219i este auto-suficient\u0103. Dar, din nou, a atras aten\u021bia asupra dependen\u021bei SUA \u00een mai multe domenii-cheie de China. Dac\u0103 vre\u021bi, \u00een ciuda tonului general al discu\u021biei, tind s\u0103 trag concluzia c\u0103 Dimon consider\u0103 meciul cu China ca fiind unul pierz\u0103tor din start.<\/p>\n

De altfel, partea frumoas\u0103 vine sub forma unui avertisment interesant. Dup\u0103 ce spune c\u0103 economia american\u0103 \u201eduduie\u201d, atrage aten\u021bia asupra unui element interesant: \u00een deceniul 7 lucrurile p\u0103reau s\u0103 fie roz dar, dup\u0103 1973, totul s-a pr\u0103bu\u0219it. Pentru cei care nu \u0219tiu, e vorba de criza petrolului \u00eenceput\u0103 \u00een 73 \u0219i care a adus \u00een prim plan stagfla\u021bia, probabil cel mai nefast setup economic. La sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anilor 70, SUA a fost nevoit\u0103 s\u0103 renun\u021be la standardul aur pentru a se putea rebalansa, fapt care poate fi v\u0103zut at\u00e2t ca un sacrificiu, c\u00e2t \u0219i ca o strategie infam\u0103 care a condus la banul-aer din prezent. Aducerea \u00een prim plan a anilor 70 nu e \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103toare, la fel cum nu e \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103tor \u0219i apelul la un sistem de alian\u021be cu \u021b\u0103rile \u00een curs de dezvoltare. Aceasta sugereaz\u0103 necesitatea Imperiului de a face sacrificii imense pentru a-\u0219i salva pielea, la fel cum, \u00een anii 70, prin flotabilitate liber\u0103 a valutelor, a permis halirea de c\u0103tre alia\u021bii s\u0103i a imensei avu\u021bii din care SUA se cam \u00eenfrupta singur\u0103. Iar situa\u021bia se vede limpede acum c\u00e2nd \u021b\u0103ri neinvitate la masa bogatului (China, Rusia \u0219.a.m.d.), \u00ee\u0219i fac loc cu for\u021ba, amenin\u021b\u00e2nd c\u0103 bucatele le apar\u021bin.<\/p>\n

Cu alte cuvinte, ceea ce \u00een\u021beleg din interviul lui Dimon este c\u0103 e panic\u0103 la v\u00e2rful imperiului. Pe de alt\u0103 parte, nu pot s\u0103 remarc cum clipul unei f\u0103tuci oarecare, pe numele s\u0103u Anna \u0219i cunoscut\u0103 sub numele de @CreativeChronicles, s-a viralizat instantaneu, pun\u00e2nd \u00een derizoriu observa\u021bia lui Dimon conform c\u0103reia \u201ethe consumer is doing well\u201d. De altfel, genul acesta de reac\u021bii de la baza societ\u0103\u021bii e cel care ar trebui s\u0103-i sperie pe cei de la v\u00e2rful imperiului. \u00cen ciuda datelor falsificate pe care le tot scot la lumin\u0103, realitatea este aceea c\u0103 la baz\u0103 totul merge greu, din ce \u00een ce mai greu. La fel ca la apusul Imperiului Otoman. Din acest punct de vedere e de \u00een\u021beles necesitatea ban\u0103rii TikTok \u00eentruc\u00e2t acesta scap\u0103 cenzurii, dar \u0219i mai important e de \u00een\u021beles c\u0103 ac\u021biunea e inutil\u0103 \u00eentruc\u00e2t cenzura pierde \u00eentotdeauna confrunt\u0103rile istoriei.<\/p>\n

Sunt c\u00e2teva aspecte pe care le voi scoate la lumin\u0103 \u00eenainte de a pune punct articolului de fa\u021b\u0103. Dup\u0103 cum s-a v\u0103zut, sc\u0103derea dob\u00e2nzii de interven\u021bie nu e posibil\u0103. Aceasta \u00eenseamn\u0103 cre\u0219terea costurilor \u00eemprumuturilor pe termen lung, ceea ce va exploda \u00eemprumuturile pe termen scurt. Ca s\u0103 \u00een\u021belege\u021bi consecin\u021ba fenomenului, v\u0103 voi spune c\u0103 direc\u021bia responsabil\u0103 cu Bugetul din Congresul SUA estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 cheltuielile cu dob\u00e2nzile vor dep\u0103\u0219i 1.6 trilioane de dolari \u00een 2034. Doar c\u0103, dac\u0103 vom lua \u00een considerare deficitul \u0219i ratele curente ale dob\u00e2nzii, vom constata c\u0103 ceea ce oficialii estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 se va \u00eent\u00e2mpla \u00een 2034, de fapt vom vedea la finalul anului curent! \u0218i dac\u0103 e s\u0103 vorbim despre 2036, putem estima c\u0103 atunci \u00eentr-adev\u0103r se va \u00eent\u00e2mpla ceva, anume c\u0103 datoria SUA va dep\u0103\u0219i 100 trilioane de dolari. Personal cred c\u0103 se va \u00eent\u00e2mpla mai repede, dar nu po\u021bi veni cu cifre at\u00e2t de \u0219ocante \u00een pia\u021b\u0103 \u00eentruc\u00e2t opinia public\u0103 te arunc\u0103 \u00een derizoriu. Asta \u00een ciuda faptului c\u0103 aceea\u0219i pulime incon\u0219tient\u0103 va fi cea care va trage la jug, \u00eenjur\u00e2ndu-se pe sine!<\/p>\n

Mul\u021bi \u00eemi spun c\u0103 aberez deoarece \u201enu con\u0219tientizez c\u0103 SUA are tiparni\u021ba pe care o poate pune oric\u00e2nd \u00een func\u021biune\u201d. Sunte\u021bi \u00een eroare, dragii mei! Tiparni\u021ba func\u021bioneaz\u0103 la maxim de ani buni! Nu v\u0103 mai auto-p\u0103c\u0103li\u021bi, deoarece e o vorb\u0103 pe care mereu o aduc \u00een discu\u021bie: po\u021bi p\u0103c\u0103li pe oricine \u0219i orice pe lumea asta, dar \u00ee\u021bi va fi imposibil s\u0103 p\u0103c\u0103le\u0219ti matematica. Re\u021bine\u021bi asta!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com Ce au \u00een comun Imperiul Spaniol, Ancien r\u00e9gime, Imperiul Otoman \u0219i cel Britanic? Imperii care de-a lungul timpului au fost for\u021be de temut \u0219i care, \u00een mod inexplicabil, au devenit irelevante peste noapte. Putem c\u0103uta multe echivalen\u021be, dar, \u00een general, vom g\u0103si diferen\u021be majore \u00eentre toate […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2221,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[267,270,32,290,4],"tags":[2290,947,677,645,2296,419,2294,1977,110,126,2298,2300,2301,2291,2292,2302,248,21,2293,2295,713,105,1712,2299,2297,102,1351,862,420,1050],"class_list":["post-2220","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-externe","category-opinii","category-politica","category-stil_de_viata","tag-bugetul-armatei","tag-cenzura","tag-china","tag-congresul-sua","tag-criza-petrolului-1973","tag-dan-diaconu","tag-destabilizare","tag-dobanzi","tag-dolarul-american","tag-federatia-rusa","tag-flotabilitate-libera-a-valutelor","tag-imprumuturi-pe-termen-lung","tag-imprumuturi-pe-termen-scurt","tag-jamie-dimon","tag-jp-morgan","tag-matematica","tag-minciuna-ca-politica-de-stat","tag-nato","tag-polarizare-interna","tag-qt-quantitative-tightening-restrangerea-cantitativa","tag-razboi-sua-china","tag-razboi-ucraina","tag-riscuri-existentiale","tag-scaderea-dobanzii-de-interventie","tag-stagflatie","tag-sua","tag-tik-tok","tag-tiparirea-de-bani","tag-trenduri-economice","tag-wall-street-journal-wsj"],"yoast_head":"\nCe ne spun pietrele funerare ale imperiilor despre SUA? 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