{"id":2486,"date":"2024-09-03T20:09:18","date_gmt":"2024-09-03T20:09:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2486"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:50:41","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:50:41","slug":"reportaj-din-casa-de-nebuni-opinia-lui-dan-diaconu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2486","title":{"rendered":"Reportaj din casa de nebuni. Opinia lui Dan Diaconu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

\u00cen general, \u00een cele mai cr\u00e2ncene episoade ale unei recesiuni, oamenii sunt at\u00e2t de dispera\u021bi \u00eenc\u00e2t nu mai \u00een\u021beleg \u201ec\u00e2t mai poate sc\u0103dea?\u201d. Treburile devin, la un moment dat, f\u0103r\u0103 nici un sens. Sc\u0103derea continu\u0103 chiar dac\u0103 e evident c\u0103 pre\u021burile sunt mult sub valoarea real\u0103. \u0218i totul continu\u0103 s\u0103 scad\u0103. Inexplicabil, absurd, dar continu\u0103 s\u0103 scad\u0103, cele mai bune ve\u0219ti fiind cele de stagnare a sc\u0103derii. Dar toate aceste elemente sunt evenimente care echilibreaz\u0103 fostele excese.<\/p>\n

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De data aceasta e ceva diferit. A\u0219a cum \u00een recesiune oamenii \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 g\u0103seasc\u0103 o explica\u021bie logic\u0103 a c\u0103derii, la fel se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 acum cu cre\u0219terile. Pur \u0219i simplu nu se mai opresc! Nimeni nu are o explica\u021bie (cu toate c\u0103 exist\u0103!). Dar, s\u0103 lu\u0103m lucrurile treptat!<\/p>\n

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Pe 5 august pie\u021bele erau \u00een s\u00e2nge \u0219i toat\u0103 lumea se uita cu aten\u021bie spre FED. Unii spuneau c\u0103 a venit vremea spargerii celei mai mari bule bursiere a tuturor timpurilor. Dac\u0103 mai \u021bine\u021bi minte, subsemnatul s-a \u00eendoit. De ce? Pentru c\u0103 niciodat\u0103 o nebunie nu se corecteaz\u0103 \u00eenainte de a ne ar\u0103ta c\u0103 poate exista o nebunie chiar mai mare dec\u00e2t NEBUNIA. \u0218i fix a\u0219a s-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat: p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul lunii august, nu doar c\u0103 s-a recuperat toat\u0103 pierderea, dar s-a mai ad\u0103ugat \u0219i un bonus de 2%. A\u0219a, ca s\u0103 \u00een\u021beleag\u0103 \u0219i detractorii c\u0103 exist\u0103 pedeaps\u0103!<\/p>\n

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Ai crede c\u0103 s-a schimbat lumea, c\u0103 a luat-o razna definitiv! Cu ceva timp \u00een urm\u0103 o corec\u021bie se \u00eentindea pe luni \u00eentregi de zile, era obsedant\u0103 pentru to\u021bi. Acum, totul pare a se fi rezolvat \u00een c\u00e2teva ore. Magie, tat\u0103! Nu-i a\u0219a c\u0103 e frumos \u00een minunata lume nou\u0103? Doar i-au smuls lui Powell o promisiune de sc\u0103dere de dob\u00e2nd\u0103 \u0219i nimeni n-a mai a\u0219teptat-o: au acoperit rapid gaura deoarece \u201e\u0219\u0103fu’ la bani\u201d a promis bani ieftini, a\u0219a c\u0103 nu i-au mai a\u0219teptat. Au umflat bula astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t, la marele anun\u021b, s\u0103 se poat\u0103 cre\u0219te din nou. A\u021bi mai \u00eent\u00e2lnit t\u00e2mpenie mai mare? Sigur nu!<\/p>\n

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Anul acesta este unul magic: cu 18.4% cre\u0219tere de la \u00eenceputul anului, tr\u0103im \u00een direct cea mai mare umflare din istoria tranzac\u021bion\u0103rii. Doar \u00een 2021 \u0219i pe parcursul bulei dotcom am mai v\u0103zut ceva similar. De fapt, cineva a scormonit \u0219i a g\u0103sit c\u0103 prin 1870 a existat o cre\u0219tere similar\u0103 a pie\u021bei care s\u0103 \u00eendeplineasc\u0103 oarecum condi\u021biile de acum, adic\u0103: o cre\u0219tere record \u00een anul precedent, stagnare economic\u0103 (a\u0219a cum e acum \u00een SUA), rapoarte corporative slabe, economii ale popula\u021biei spre zero \u0219i f\u0103r\u0103 QE, cu tendin\u021be clare de degradare a balan\u021bei de lichiditate.<\/p>\n

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Istoria ne arat\u0103 c\u0103 \u00een 1870 s-a finalizat cu o infla\u021bie m\u0103rit\u0103, o sc\u0103dere a produc\u021biei agricole, iar reflectarea pe continentul european a fost R\u0103zboiul Franco-Prusac (1870-1871). Guvernul american a contracarat atunci criza cu un amplu program de extindere a c\u0103ilor ferate. Asta, \u00eens\u0103, nu a \u00eempiedicat ca, trei ani mai t\u00e2rziu, s\u0103 vin\u0103 o criz\u0103 mult mai grav\u0103, cunoscut\u0103 ca \u201ePanica din 1873\u201d. Destul, \u00eens\u0103, cu istoria deoarece, fa\u021b\u0103 de acum, singurul element care rimeaz\u0103 este amploarea nebuniei. Spre deosebire de azi, Guvernul Federal de atunci se afla \u00eentr-o pozi\u021bie financiar\u0103 bun\u0103 \u0219i avea capacitatea de a b\u0103ga bani \u0219i subven\u021bii \u00een economie pentru a o salva. Acum, la nivelul la care a ajuns economia, dac\u0103 s-ar chinui toate guvernele lumii s\u0103 ajute SUA, tot n-ar reu\u0219i s\u0103 acopere gaura neagr\u0103 care urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 topeasc\u0103 tot!<\/p>\n

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Suntem \u00een mijlocul unei prostii at\u00e2t de mari \u00eenc\u00e2t le-ar da de g\u00e2ndit inclusiv celor din Idiocracy. Motivul pentru care se pompeaz\u0103 at\u00e2ta amar de bani \u00een \u201ecompaniile vedet\u0103\u201d? AI! Asta e pe buzele tuturor. AI-ul va face \u0219i va drege, AI-ul \u201eva duce pe noi culmi de progres \u0219i civiliza\u021bie\u201d productivitatea muncii. Aproape c\u0103 te doare capul! Am mai atacat subiectul \u00een mai multe r\u00e2nduri. O fi cum o fi AI-ul, dar nimeni nu \u00een\u021belege realitatea? Dac\u0103 \u00eentr-adev\u0103r AI-ul va cre\u0219te at\u00e2t de mult productivitatea muncii, \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 se va face coad\u0103 la centrele de \u0219omaj, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t binecuv\u00e2ntarea productivit\u0103\u021bii \u00eenalte se va l\u0103sa cu sc\u0103derea drastic\u0103 a consumului. \u0218i-atunci ce faci? Am analizat \u00eentr-o postare mai veche impactul pe care-l va avea pe pia\u021ba muncii introducerea vehiculelor care se conduc singure. Doar cei care nu au habar c\u00e2t\u0103 lume tr\u0103ie\u0219te din \u0219oferie nu \u00een\u021beleg impactul real!<\/p>\n

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Din fericire, \u201ebinefacerile\u201d AI-ului sunt, mai degrab\u0103, teoretice. De ce? Pentru c\u0103 s-a automatizat o groaz\u0103 \u00een business. Digitalizarea n-a \u00eenceput cu imboldul Ursulei de a se instala camere video \u0219i \u00een WC-uri pentru a se putea spiona chiar \u0219i ie\u0219irea, ci este prezent \u00eenc\u0103 din perioada anilor 60, atunci c\u00e2nd mini-calculator era o hardughie care avea nevoie de „doar” jum\u0103tate de etaj \u0219i aer condi\u021bionat, la care lucrau zeci de ingineri strict pentru a-l men\u021bine \u00een func\u021biune. Peste tot pe unde ap\u0103reau hibe se modificau practicile de business pentru a se putea automatiza socoteala. Ca s\u0103 \u00een\u021belege\u021bi, vede\u021bi ce traseu are un cec acum \u0219i ce traseu avea la \u00eenceputul anilor 90. Iar exemple sunt cu duiumul. La ce e bun AI-ul? La \u00eenlocuit \u201emuncitorimea de excel\u201d? Posibil, doar c\u0103 muncitorimea aia, r\u0103mas\u0103 f\u0103r\u0103 excel nu are unde s\u0103 se duc\u0103. Iar excelul muncitorimii este folosit pentru a traduce \u201elimbajul calculatoarelor\u201d \u00een limbaj managerial, pentru a avea cu ce s\u0103 se fac\u0103 \u0219edin\u021be de sus \u00een josul \u0219i de jos \u00een susul organiza\u021biei. Dup\u0103 ce dispar muncitorii de Excell & Power Point, nu mai sunt necesare \u0219edin\u021bele, deci nici AI-ul nu-\u0219i mai are locul.<\/p>\n

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P\u00e2n\u0103 una-alta, AI-ul se distinge prin ceva spectaculos, anume prin facturi. Ai nevoie de hardware care-i obscen de scump \u0219i de energie \u00een draci. Dac\u0103 iei treaba \u00een serios, te treze\u0219ti cu ni\u0219te facturi la energie care-s dep\u0103\u0219ite doar de necesit\u0103\u021bile de upgrade ale hardughiei. Care sunt continue. Iar dac\u0103 faci prostia s\u0103 contractezi servicii AI din cloud, ai pus-o c\u0103 trebuie s\u0103 munce\u0219ti doar ca s\u0103 le achi\u021bi \u0103lora facturile. S-ar putea s\u0103 consta\u021bi c\u0103, din 3-4 facturi, \u00ee\u021bi puteai instala pe banii t\u0103i toate serverele \u0219i softul, r\u0103m\u00e2n\u00e2ndu-\u021bi \u0219i ceva consistent, ca s\u0103 ai de upgrade.<\/p>\n

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Desigur, la ora actual\u0103, domeniul a luat-o \u0219i razna, to\u021bi c\u0103ut\u00e2nd s\u0103 demonstreze cum scot ei genii AI pe band\u0103 rulant\u0103. Algoritmii – la nivelul actual – sunt destul de ofertan\u021bi astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t, dac\u0103 ai inteligen\u021ba necesar\u0103, nu cau\u021bi s\u0103 ai TOTUL deoarece nu te intereseaz\u0103 dec\u00e2t ANUMITE aspecte. Astfel, cu un subset antrenat corespunz\u0103tor po\u021bi s\u0103-\u021bi faci treaba optim \u0219i f\u0103r\u0103 acel necesar faraonic de energie \u0219i echipamente. Doar c\u0103, repet, mare parte din optimizare \u0219i digitalizare e deja f\u0103cut\u0103. Cei care sper\u0103 la o lume condus\u0103 de AI, \u00een care oamenii sunt doar ni\u0219te oi ghidate de \u201einteligen\u021ba perfect obiectiv\u0103\u201d, rateaz\u0103 totu\u0219i cifrele care ar trebui s\u0103 justifice actualele cota\u021bii bursiere. De ce spun asta? Pentru c\u0103 o lume guvernat\u0103 de AI ar fi o lume absolut neconcuren\u021bial\u0103, \u00een care cererea \u0219i oferta ar fi balansate la milimetru \u0219i, \u00een care, \u00een general, resursele ar fi cam la comun, calculate pentru a fi bine oricui. Tradus: \u201ede la fiecare dup\u0103 posibilit\u0103\u021bi, fiec\u0103ruia dup\u0103 nevoi\u201d<\/em>. Dac\u0103 nu \u0219ti\u021bi despre ce e vorba \u00een citatul anterior, ori sunte\u021bi la categoria tineret care mai are nevoie s\u0103 \u00eenve\u021be, ori nu prea a\u021bi \u00een\u021beles ce s-a petrecut \u00een propria via\u021b\u0103. M\u0103 rog, ideea e c\u0103 a te g\u00e2ndi c\u0103 \u00eentr-o asemenea societate se vor \u00eentoarce dividende c\u0103tre ac\u021bionari e o lips\u0103 total\u0103 de logic\u0103.<\/p>\n

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Pun\u00e2nd punct, eu zic s\u0103 ne \u00eentoarcem cu picioarele pe p\u0103m\u00e2nt \u0219i s\u0103 vedem c\u00e2t de mare poate fi nebunia lumii. C\u0103 bulbii de lalea nu ne-au lecuit de nebunie am v\u0103zut-o. S\u0103 vedem acum dac\u0103 nu cumva a fost nevoie de inventarea inteligen\u021bei artificiale pentru a \u00een\u021belege c\u0103 nebunia \u0219i prostia uman\u0103 sunt resurse de-a dreptul nelimitate. Pe moment o vedem \u00een cota\u021bii. Sta\u021bi s\u0103 ajungem la \u201eZiua Judec\u0103\u021bii\u201d, s\u0103 vede\u021bi atunci ce de \u201eam fost un dobitoc\u201d ve\u021bi auzi!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un articol publicat de Dan Diaconu ini\u021bial pe trenduri.blogspot.com \u00cen general, \u00een cele mai cr\u00e2ncene episoade ale unei recesiuni, oamenii sunt at\u00e2t de dispera\u021bi \u00eenc\u00e2t nu mai \u00een\u021beleg \u201ec\u00e2t mai poate sc\u0103dea?\u201d. Treburile devin, la un moment dat, f\u0103r\u0103 nici un sens. Sc\u0103derea continu\u0103 chiar dac\u0103 e evident c\u0103 pre\u021burile sunt mult sub valoarea real\u0103. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2487,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,4],"tags":[1059,1262,358,1065,419,2574,594,1140,678,2580,487,2528,2579,417,1281,2583,89,1264,2578,626,2581,2577,1149,760,2575,2582,102,420,53],"class_list":["post-2486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinii","category-stil_de_viata","tag-bula","tag-bursa","tag-comunism-de-scoala-noua","tag-criza-dotcom","tag-dan-diaconu","tag-datorie","tag-digitalizare","tag-dividende","tag-europa","tag-excell","tag-fed","tag-guvernul-sua","tag-idiocracy","tag-inflatie","tag-jerome-powell","tag-judgement-day","tag-minunata-lume-noua","tag-nebunie","tag-panica-din-1873","tag-plandemie","tag-powerpoint","tag-razboiul-franco-prusac","tag-recesiune","tag-socialism","tag-stagnare-economica","tag-stocare-in-cloud","tag-sua","tag-trenduri-economice","tag-ursula-von-der-leyen"],"yoast_head":"\nReportaj din casa de nebuni. 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