{"id":2538,"date":"2024-11-13T07:55:47","date_gmt":"2024-11-13T07:55:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2538"},"modified":"2025-10-21T15:50:57","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T15:50:57","slug":"trump-and-the-animal-spirits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2538","title":{"rendered":"Trump and the animal spirits"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

de Ovidiu T\u00e2njal\u0103<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

La alegerile din 4 noiembrie republicanii au c\u00e2\u0219tigat patru<\/a> locuri \u00een Senatul SUA. Unul dintre acestea a fost ob\u021binut de dl. Moreno care a c\u00e2\u0219tigat \u00een fa\u021ba senatorului democrat Brown care a condus \u0219i \u00eenc\u0103 conduce comisia senatorial\u0103 pentru reglementare a sistemului financiar etc<\/a>. Senatorul Brown<\/a> a fost unul dintre cei mai woke membrii ai Senatului SUA, dup\u0103 cum reiese din istoricul votului acestuia \u00een chestiuni precum a\u0219a zisele drepturi LGBT etc. Ca membru al Congresului, dl. Brown a fost considerat cel mai de st\u00e2nga deputat american iar pozi\u021biile sale politice nu au devenit mai moderate o dat\u0103 cu promovarea \u00een Senat. Dar dl. Brown nu a pierdut alegerile din pricina sus\u021binerii LGBT sau pentru c\u0103 a criticat dreptul cet\u0103\u021benilor american de a purta arme etc ci pentru c\u0103, \u00een calitate de pre\u0219edinte al comisiei senatoriale pentru reglementare bancar\u0103, a dorit reglementarea criptomonedelor folosind pretextul uzual, anume c\u0103 acestea sunt utilizate pentru finan\u021barea terorismului. B\u0103ncile sunt responsabile pentru +\/- 80% din expansiunea monetar\u0103 \u00een condi\u021biile unor dob\u00e2nzi real negative, este deci firesc ca guvernele \u00een coniven\u021b\u0103 cu marile b\u0103nci s\u0103 terorizeze popula\u021bia astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t aceasta s\u0103 fie nevoit\u0103 s\u0103-\u0219i iroseasc\u0103 banii \u021bin\u00e2ndu-i \u00een b\u0103nci. Dl. Brown \u0219i-a petrecut \u00eentreaga carier\u0103 \u00een slujba marxismului postmodern \u2013 adic\u0103 \u00een slujba ideologiei woke \u2013 exacerb\u00e2nd \u0219i cre\u00e2nd falii artificiale \u00een societatea american\u0103 doar pentru a pierde alegerile atunci c\u00e2nd s-a ab\u0103tut de la ideologie. Dac\u0103 dl. Brown ar fi fost un marxist de mai bun\u0103 calitate ar fi \u0219tiut c\u0103, dac\u0103 poate oprima p\u00e2n\u0103 dincolo de exasperare majorit\u0103\u021bi largi ale votan\u021bilor \u2013 vezi situa\u021bia descris\u0103 mai sus a sistemului bancar la care este for\u021bat\u0103 s\u0103 participe marea majoritate a popula\u021biei \u2013 a enerva, chiar marginal, o minoritate unit\u0103 \u00een jurul unui interes particular poate fi extrem de periculos. A\u0219a zi\u0219ii investitori Bitcoin au \u00een\u021beles rapid c\u0103 dl. Brown se preg\u0103te\u0219te s\u0103 distrug\u0103 criptomonezile folosind pretexte transparente \u0219i mecanisme deja rodate, utilizate \u00een trecut pentru a-i r\u0103pi majorit\u0103\u021bii confiden\u021bialitatea comunica\u021biilor ca \u0219i cea financiar\u0103, libertatea cuv\u00e2ntului dar \u0219i cea financiar\u0103 etc. Ca urmare posesorii de criptomonede \u2013 \u00een special Bitcoin \u2013 au reac\u021bionat extrem de virulent subven\u021bion\u00e2nd campania contracandidatului domnului Brown, republicanul Moreno, cu peste 40 de milioane de dolari<\/a>, aceast\u0103 campanie intr\u00e2nd astfel \u00een istoria alegerilor americane ca fiind cea mai costisitoare campanie publicitar\u0103 pentru o pozi\u021bie de senator SUA. Impulsiona\u021bi de discursul domnului Trump la conven\u021bia Partidului Libertarian dar mai ales de declara\u021bia acestuia \u2013 cu ocazia Conferin\u021bei Bitcoin\/Nashville – referitoare la o \u201drezerv\u0103 na\u021bional\u0103 strategic\u0103 de bitcoin\u201d (sic) oamenii av\u00e2nd interese \u00een zona Bitcoin au pariat pe dl. Trump \u0219i pe Partidul Republican colect\u00e2nd mai bine de 245 de milioane de dolari<\/a> pentru a-\u0219i promova favori\u021bii \u00een alegerile americane abia \u00eencheiate. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Dat\u0103 fiind victoria decisiv\u0103 a Partidului Republican, Bitcoin a crescut la maxime istorice absolute, oscil\u00e2nd \u00een jurul valorii de 89.000 dolari<\/a> cresc\u00e2nd mai bine de 20.000 dolari din ziua alegerilor americane, investi\u021bia \u00een alegerile americane dovedindu-se astfel extrem de profitabil\u0103 pentru investitori. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Acest text nu dore\u0219te s\u0103 confirme tezele st\u00e2ngii, dimpotriv\u0103 acest autor consider\u0103 legitim \u0219i \u00eendrept\u0103\u021bit moral orice mod de a ne organiza \u00eempotriva statului pe care-l consider\u0103 a fi pur \u0219i simplu satanic \u2013 o bun\u0103 aproximare a R\u0103ului scris cu majuscul\u0103. Scris din perspectiv\u0103 austriac\u0103<\/a>, acest text dore\u0219te s\u0103 ofere cititorilor nuan\u021bele necesare pentru o mai bun\u0103 \u00een\u021belegere a ceea ce s-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat \u00een SUA. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Aurul<\/a> a crescut cu peste 30% \u00een cursul ultimului an. A fost un an deosebit de bun pentru aur, argintul \u00eencepuse, de asemenea, s\u0103 creasc\u0103 (exist\u0103 de obicei un ecart de timp \u00eentre cre\u0219terea pre\u021bului aurului \u0219i cre\u0219terea pre\u021bului argintului, aurul fiind mai sensibil \u00een vreme ce panta cre\u0219terii pre\u021bului argintului este mai abrupt\u0103). <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Cre\u0219terea pre\u021bului <\/span><\/span><\/span>metalelor financiare<\/span><\/span><\/span> este extrem de semnificativ\u0103 pentru mersul economiei, oamenii se refugiaz\u0103 \u00een aur atunci c\u00e2nd nu au \u00eencredere \u00een evolu\u021bia bursei. De\u0219i indicii <\/span><\/span><\/span>bursieri se afl\u0103 la maxime istorice<\/a>, cre\u0219terea pre\u021bului aurului indic\u0103 o erodare a \u00eencrederii investitorilor \u00een evolu\u021bia randamentelor exist\u00e2nd tot mai multe voci care s\u0103 avertizeze asupra unei pr\u0103bu\u0219iri iminent<\/span><\/span><\/span>e nu doar a bursei ci <\/span><\/span><\/span>\u0219i a<\/span><\/span><\/span> \u00eentregii economii, anul 1929 fiind men\u021bionat ca termen de referin\u021b\u0103<\/span><\/span><\/span>. <\/span><\/span><\/span>F<\/span><\/span><\/span>olosind diverse argumente anali\u0219ti<\/span><\/span><\/span>i<\/span><\/span><\/span> bursei au adus argumente \u00eentr-un sens sau \u00eentr-altul, pr\u0103bu\u0219ire economic\u0103 <\/span><\/span><\/span>spre<\/span><\/span><\/span> recesiune\/<\/span><\/span><\/span>depresi<\/span><\/span><\/span>une<\/span><\/span><\/span> sau \u2013 \u00een cel mai bun caz \u2013 <\/span><\/span><\/span>o <\/span><\/span><\/span>aterizare lin\u0103 a economiei. Da, masa monetar\u0103 M2<\/a> este \u00een u\u0219oar\u0103 sc\u0103dere dup\u0103 aprilie 2022 indic\u00e2nd o politic\u0103 extrem de restrictiv\u0103 a FED, astfel de politici fiind urmate \u00eentotdeauna de recesiuni. Pe de alt\u0103 parte, \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care \u0219omajul este practic zero, nu ar trebui s\u0103 existe motive care s\u0103 ne fac\u0103 s\u0103 ne g\u00e2ndim c\u0103 urmeaz\u0103 o recesiune. Desigur, \u0219omajul este scriptic zero \u00eens\u0103 datele referitoare <\/span><\/span><\/span>num\u0103rul locurilor de munc\u0103 creeate \u00een economia american\u0103<\/span><\/span><\/span> sunt mereu revizuite<\/a> \u00een jos \u2013 f\u0103r\u0103 publicitate \u2013 cu o dexteritate demn\u0103 de statistica URSS. <\/span><\/span><\/span>Mai mult, economia american\u0103 pierde slujbe bine pl\u0103tite \u00een domenii productive \u00een vreme ce produce slujbe prost pl\u0103tite \u2013 cel mai adesea cu norm\u0103 par\u021bial\u0103 \u2013 \u00een sfera serviciilor. Da, indicele Buffett<\/a> este la r\u00e2ndul lui la maxime istorice iar aceasta arat\u0103 c\u0103 bursa este supraevaluat\u0103, cel mai probabil urm\u00e2nd o contrac\u021bie economic\u0103. <\/span><\/span><\/span>Desigur, bursa este la maxime istorice, dar evolu\u021biile pozitive sunt concentrate \u00een zona a 7<\/a> (\u0219apte) companii \u00een rest evolu\u021biile fiind adesea negative sau, \u00een cel mai bun caz, modeste \u00een vreme ce investi\u021bia \u00een aur a fost mai profitabil\u0103 dec\u00e2t investi\u021bia \u00een burs\u0103. <\/span><\/span><\/span>Da, indicele Buffett arat\u0103 probleme <\/span><\/span><\/span>\u00een viitorul apropriat<\/span><\/span><\/span> dar pe de alt\u0103 parte restul lumii are probleme economice mult mai mari dec\u00e2t sunt \u00een SUA, economia Europei este \u00een picaj liber \u00een vreme ce guvernul chinez a fost nevoit s\u0103 lanseze programe de stimulare economic\u0103 etc. <\/span><\/span><\/span>Pe de alt\u0103 parte pre\u021bul petrolului este jos <\/span><\/span><\/span>\u00een condi\u021bii de conflict \u00een <\/span><\/span><\/span>zona produc\u0103torilor majori din<\/span><\/span><\/span> Orientul Mijlociu \/ Rusia ceea ce <\/span><\/span><\/span>indic\u0103 clar<\/span><\/span><\/span> contrac\u021bie economic\u0103. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Argumentele \u00een favoarea unei relative stabilit\u0103\u021bi economice, argumentele \u00een favoarea unui dezastru economic iminent pot fi \u00een\u0219irate la practic la nesf\u00e2r\u0219it, mult dincolo de limitele impuse de economia acestui text. Austriecii au avertizat mereu \u00een ultimii 30 de ani c\u0103 \u2013 dat\u0103 fiind expansiunea monetar\u0103 \u2013 un ciclu economic a fost pornit iar ca urmare acesta nu poate dec\u00e2t s\u0103-\u0219i urmeze cursul. Dac\u0103 ne-a pl\u0103cut faza de expansiune economic\u0103 nu avem dec\u00e2t s\u0103 suferim contrac\u021bia care va veni cu absolut\u0103 certitudine. <\/span><\/span><\/span>Dat\u0103 fiind \u00eens\u0103 natura \u0219tiin\u021bei economice, aceasta nu poate oferi predic\u021bii cantitative ci doar <\/span><\/span><\/span>estim\u0103ri <\/span><\/span><\/span>calitative ceea ce \u00eenseam\u0103 c\u0103 de\u0219i \u0219tim c\u0103 urmeaz\u0103 o recesiune nu \u0219tim c\u00e2nd aceasta va deveni realitate economic\u0103. <\/span><\/span><\/span>Av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere evolu\u021biile pre\u021bului aurului, costul nesustenabil al refinan\u021b\u0103rii datoriei externe a SUA dar \u0219i randamentul<\/a> titlurilor obliga\u021biunilor de trezorerie care a devenit rigid \u00een ciuda sc\u0103derii dob\u00e2nzii de referin\u021b\u0103, autorul acestui text a observat practic un consens austriac \u2013 <\/span><\/span><\/span>anume c\u0103 <\/span><\/span><\/span>o recesiune sever\u0103, cel pu\u021bin comparabil\u0103 cu cea \u00eenceput\u0103 \u00een 1929, este iminent\u0103. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Cu alte cuvinte, \u00een perioada dinaintea alegerilor, era practic un consens \u00eentre anali\u0219tii economici, cu to\u021bii credeau c\u0103 nu se va putea <\/span><\/span><\/span>evita <\/span><\/span><\/span>o recesiune singura dezbatere fiind dac\u0103 urmeaz\u0103 o pr\u0103bu\u0219ire a economiei \u00een stil 1929 sau o aterizare lin\u0103 a acesteia cu observa\u021bia c\u0103 \u00een zona austriac\u0103 exista consens asupra iminen\u021bei unui dezastru.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u0218i tocmai de aceea, alegerile americane <\/span><\/span><\/span>mi-au fost aproape indiferente<\/span><\/span><\/span>: \u0219tiam c\u0103 urmeaz\u0103 o recesiune <\/span><\/span><\/span>iar <\/span><\/span><\/span>dac\u0103 aceasta ar fi avut loc \u00een mandatul Trump st\u00e2nga ar fi aruncat vina pe politicile economice \u00een favoarea pie\u021bei libere cu care pre\u0219edintele Trump este asociat \u00een mentalul colectiv. Recesiunea din 1929 a adus la putere un populist de st\u00e2nga<\/a> care a prelungit criza p\u00e2n\u0103 <\/span><\/span><\/span>\u00een timpul<\/span><\/span><\/span> Cel<\/span><\/span><\/span>ui<\/span><\/span><\/span> de-al Doilea R\u0103zboi Mondial, <\/span><\/span><\/span>motiv pentru care <\/span><\/span><\/span>a\u0219 fi preferat ca <\/span><\/span><\/span>\u00een momentul declan\u0219\u0103rii recesiunii<\/span><\/span><\/span> la c\u00e2rma SUA s\u0103 fie st\u00e2nga marxist\u0103 reprezentat\u0103 de doamna Harris <\/span><\/span><\/span>tocmai <\/span><\/span><\/span>pentru a face posibil\u0103 apari\u021bia unui Milei<\/a> american. Dl. Trump a f\u0103cut ceea ce \u0219tie <\/span><\/span><\/span>mai bine <\/span><\/span><\/span>s\u0103 fac\u0103, a promis \u00een st\u00e2nga \u0219i \u00een dreapta bun\u0103stare instantanee, scutiri de impozite – de\u0219i deficitele bugetare sunt la maxime istorice <\/span><\/span><\/span>etc<\/span><\/span><\/span>. Desigur, dl. Trump are merite incontestabile, mai presus de toate a lansat discu\u021bia renun\u021b\u0103rii la impozitul direct pe salarii \u0219i revenirea la tradi\u021bia american\u0103 a finan\u021b\u0103rii guvernului SUA din tarife vamale ceea ce are poten\u021bialul s\u0103 schimbe \u00eentru totul SUA, acestea intr\u00e2nd ireversibil pe calea libert\u0103\u021bii economice. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

D<\/span><\/span><\/span>e la c\u00e2\u0219tigarea alegerilor de c\u0103tre echipa Trump, aurul a pierdut spre 10% din ceea ce a c\u00e2\u0219tigat \u00een ultimul an, Bitcoin este la maxime istorice. <\/span><\/span><\/span>Chiar \u0219i Tesla, cea mai woke dintre companiile woke, o firm\u0103 care tr\u0103ie\u0219te de pe urma parazit\u0103rii<\/a> industriei de automobile, a cunoscut evolu\u021bii bursiere c\u0103tre maximul istoric<\/a>. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Cu alte cuvinte capitaluri importante au migrat dinspre aur<\/span><\/span><\/span> c\u0103tre active speculative precum Bitcoin \u00een vreme ce bursa a continuat s\u0103 creasc\u0103. Dl. Trump a devenit astfel nu doar un Atlas al politicii ci \u0219i al economiei mondiale inject\u00e2nd \u00eencredere \u00een pie\u021be \u00eentr-un moment \u00een care consensul era inevitabilitatea unei recesiuni. Din nou subliniez c\u0103 din punct de vedere austriac recesiunea este nu doar inevitabil\u0103 ci \u0219i necesar\u0103, aceasta av\u00e2nd rolul de a cur\u0103\u021ba economia de investi\u021biile f\u0103cute \u00een perioada de expansiune monetar\u0103, cel mai probabil \u00een defavoarea unor dezvolt\u0103ri maligne precum Bitcoin sau Tesla. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

De\u0219i pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce trec zilele se contureaz\u0103 o administra\u021bie american\u0103 din ce \u00een ce mai revolu\u021bionar\u0103, prea pu\u021bin dispus\u0103 la compromisuri cu elitele marxiste care controleaz\u0103 SUA, din punct de vedere economic alegerea domnului Trump are, p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een momentul de fa\u021b\u0103, un efect <\/span><\/span><\/span>de oprire a alunec\u0103rii spre recesiune, un efect de<\/span><\/span><\/span> men\u021binere a modelului economic keynesian, de oprire a imploziei acestuia, reprezent\u00e2nd implicit o am\u00e2nare a scaden\u021bei exceselor <\/span><\/span><\/span>economice provocate de politicile de st\u00e2nga ale ultimilor administra\u021bii (inclusiv prima administra\u021bie Trump). <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Exuberan\u021ba politic\u0103 ca urmare a rezultatului alegerilor americane este de \u00een\u021beles, o \u00eemp\u0103rt\u0103\u0219esc \u00een cvasitotalitate, este o s\u0103rb\u0103toare a libert\u0103\u021bii, mai ales a libert\u0103\u021bii cuv\u00e2ntului<\/a>. Textul de mai sus se dore\u0219te a fi un avertisment \u00eempotriva exuberan\u021bei ira\u021bionale<\/a> \u00een economie, o reamintire a faptului c\u0103 <\/span><\/span><\/span>ra\u021biunea \u0219i nu instinctele ne\u00eengr\u0103dite de judecat\u0103<\/a> ar trebui s\u0103 ne conduc\u0103 \u00een lumea economiei. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 de Ovidiu T\u00e2njal\u0103 La alegerile din 4 noiembrie republicanii au c\u00e2\u0219tigat patru locuri \u00een Senatul SUA. Unul dintre acestea a fost ob\u021binut de dl. Moreno care a c\u00e2\u0219tigat \u00een fa\u021ba senatorului democrat Brown care a condus \u0219i \u00eenc\u0103 conduce comisia senatorial\u0103 pentru reglementare a sistemului financiar etc. Senatorul Brown a fost unul dintre cei […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2539,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[267,290],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-politica"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump and the animal spirits - RoExit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2538\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump and the animal spirits - RoExit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00a0 de Ovidiu T\u00e2njal\u0103 La alegerile din 4 noiembrie republicanii au c\u00e2\u0219tigat patru locuri \u00een Senatul SUA. Unul dintre acestea a fost ob\u021binut de dl. 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