Mike Wilson<\/a> (CIO – responsabil cu strategia etc) recomand\u0103 clien\u021bilor s\u0103 schimbe structura portofoliilor, anume s\u0103 treac\u0103 de la 60 ac\u021biuni\/40 obliga\u021biuni c\u0103tre 60 ac\u021biuni\/20 aur \u0219i 20 obliga\u021biuni ale trezoreriei americane.<\/p>\nSchimbarea dinspre structura 60\/40 c\u0103tre 60\/20\/20 \u00eenseamn\u0103 o revolu\u021bie. \u00cen vreme ce \u00eentreaga pres\u0103 financiar\u0103 este preocupat\u0103 de non-evenimente FED precum sc\u0103derea de miercurea trecut\u0103 a dob\u00e2nzii de referin\u021b\u0103 cu 0,25% de la 4,25% la 4% Morgan Stanley arunc\u0103 \u00een aer sistemul financiar mondial arunc\u00e2nd dolarul la co\u0219ul de gunoi al istoriei. Practic clien\u021bilor Morgan Stanley li se recomand\u0103 s\u0103 v\u00e2nd\u0103 20% din portofoliul pe care-l de\u021bin \u00een obliga\u021biuni ale trezoreriei pentru a cump\u0103ra aur.<\/p>\n
Am scris r\u00e2ndurile de mai sus \u00een 20 de minute \u2013 nu mai am exerci\u021biul de a produce rapid texte \u2013 iar aurul a ajuns pe bursele asiatice (Europa \u0219i SUA dorm \u00eenc\u0103) la 3696,42 dolari\/uncie.<\/p>\n
Contextul \u00een care apare recomandarea celor de la Morgan Stanley este semnificativ \u2013 nu putea s\u0103 fie altminteri. De +\/- 3 ani de zile b\u0103ncile centrale cump\u0103r\u0103 cantit\u0103\u021bi imense de aur. Evolu\u021biile politice au fost determinante, \u021b\u0103rile BRICS dar \u0219i \u021b\u0103ri precum Polonia au cump\u0103rat \u0219i cump\u0103r\u0103 \u00een continuare aur. Explica\u021bia este simpl\u0103: lumea se \u00eemparte \u00een blocuri, r\u0103zboiul \u00eempotriva Rusiei dar \u0219i taxele vamale aplicate de SUA favorizeaz\u0103 fragmentarea pie\u021bei globale. \u021a\u0103rile BRICS nu au interesul s\u0103 creeze o moned\u0103 dup\u0103 modelul dolarului \u2013 distrugerea economiei SUA cauzat\u0103 de efectul Triffin este o chestiune limpede pe care BRICS nu vrea s\u0103 o repete. Ca urmare BRICS vor folosi monedele proprii pentru schimburi comerciale aurul va fi folosit pentru a acoperi deficitele comerciale. Dolarul nu apare niciunde \u00een schem\u0103. Dac\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 de cur\u00e2nd schimburile se f\u0103ceau \u00een dolari acum se fac \u00een monedele proprii ale fiec\u0103rei \u021b\u0103ri \u00een vreme ce, a\u0219a cum scriam mai sus, deficitele se acoper\u0103 periodic \u00een aur. B\u0103ncile centrale ale \u021b\u0103rilor din zona occidental\u0103 care au \u00een\u021beles mecanismul de mai sus (Polonia) cump\u0103r\u0103 aur, b\u0103ncile centrale ale \u021b\u0103rilor vasale SUA continu\u0103 s\u0103 cumpere obliga\u021biuni americane pentru a-\u0219i reafirma vasalitatea.<\/p>\n
\u00centr-adev\u0103r, ca urmare a evolu\u021biilor de mai sus, valoarea aurului de\u021binut de b\u0103ncile centrale a dep\u0103\u0219it pentru prima oar\u0103 \u00een istoria recent\u0103 (decenii) valoarea obliga\u021biunilor americane. <\/b><\/i>Chestiunea nu poate fi subestimat\u0103, este pur \u0219i simplu o evolu\u021bie istoric\u0103.<\/p>\n
Pe de alt\u0103 parte evolu\u021bie pre\u021bului aurului a fost spectaculoas\u0103, \u00een acest pre\u021bul a crescut cu peste 40% pre\u021bul dubl\u00e2ndu-se din 2022. Randamentele investi\u021biilor \u00een aur au dep\u0103\u0219it randamentul investi\u021biilor bursiere al investi\u021biilor \u00een Bitcoin etc. Cum am scris mai sus, investi\u021biile \u00een aur sunt un sport \u00een mare austriac (libertarian) mai recent \u0219i un sport practicat de b\u0103ncile centrale. T\u0103cerea presei economice a fost asurzitoare, o t\u0103cere complice cu statul modern, social \u0219i democrat. Cititorii acestui text ar trebui s\u0103-\u0219i aminteasc\u0103 aceast\u0103 chestiune atunci c\u00e2nd aud vorbind orduri precum Moise Guran etc.<\/p>\n
Faptul c\u0103 presa a reu\u0219it s\u0103 men\u021bin\u0103 decenii de-a r\u00e2ndul popula\u021bia \u00een ignoran\u021b\u0103 economic\u0103 \u00eempotriva eviden\u021bei, \u00eempotriva eviden\u021bei aritmetice, este poate singura chestiune semnificativ\u0103 pentru aceia dintre noi care au urm\u0103rit evolu\u021biile economice cu ochi austrieci, evolu\u021biile descrise mai sus nefiind o surpriz\u0103 ci rezultatul unor judec\u0103\u021bi economice, adic\u0103 al unor ra\u021bionamente apriorice.<\/p>\n
Decizia Morgan Stanley de a recomanda schimbarea structurii portofoliilor de la 60\/40 c\u0103tre 60\/20\/20 \u00eenseamn\u0103 aducerea aurului \u00een lumina reflectoarelor iar modul \u00een care a fost gestionat\u0103 economia (dar \u0219i politica) nu rezist\u0103 vreunei analize ra\u021bionale. Consecin\u021ba imediat\u0103 a deciziei Morgan Stanley va fi c\u0103 pre\u021bul obliga\u021biunilor de trezorerie se va pr\u0103bu\u0219i, pre\u021bul aurului va exploda (o explozie care va avea loc \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care pre\u021bul se afl\u0103 deja \u00een expansiune necontrolat\u0103 adic\u0103 \u00eentr-o explozie) \u00een vreme ce pia\u021ba obliga\u021biunilor americane se va pr\u0103bu\u0219i. Pr\u0103bu\u0219irea pie\u021bei obliga\u021biunilor \u0219i explozia pre\u021bului aurului se vor alimenta reciproc, rezultatul va fi o criz\u0103 economic\u0103 care va face ca anul 1929 s\u0103 ne par\u0103 unul al bun\u0103st\u0103rii \u0219i al prosperit\u0103\u021bii.<\/p>\n
Mi-a luat o or\u0103 s\u0103 scriu acest text. Pre\u021bul aurului a ajuns la 3711,49 dolari\/uncie, bursele europene \u0219i americane \u00eenc\u0103 dorm. Scap\u0103 cine poate.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Scap\u0103 cine poate de Ovidiu T\u00e2njal\u0103 Uncia de aur este \u2013 chiar \u00een momentul \u00een care \u00eencep s\u0103 scriu acest text \u2013 3692,17 USD. Pre\u021bul aurului a crescut cu 40% \u00een acest an, chestiunea este \u00een mare parte ignorat\u0103 de a\u0219a zisa pres\u0103 financiar\u0103 dar \u0219i de cei care pretind c\u0103 ne educ\u0103 financiar. Aurul […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[267,32,290],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2827","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-opinii","category-politica"],"yoast_head":"\n
Scap\u0103 cine poate - RoExit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2827\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Scap\u0103 cine poate - RoExit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Scap\u0103 cine poate de Ovidiu T\u00e2njal\u0103 Uncia de aur este \u2013 chiar \u00een momentul \u00een care \u00eencep s\u0103 scriu acest text \u2013 3692,17 USD. Pre\u021bul aurului a crescut cu 40% \u00een acest an, chestiunea este \u00een mare parte ignorat\u0103 de a\u0219a zisa pres\u0103 financiar\u0103 dar \u0219i de cei care pretind c\u0103 ne educ\u0103 financiar. 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Pre\u021bul aurului a crescut cu 40% \u00een acest an, chestiunea este \u00een mare parte ignorat\u0103 de a\u0219a zisa pres\u0103 financiar\u0103 dar \u0219i de cei care pretind c\u0103 ne educ\u0103 financiar. Aurul […]","og_url":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2827","og_site_name":"RoExit","article_published_time":"2025-09-22T07:16:57+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-10-21T15:51:43+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1277,"height":837,"url":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gold.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scris de":"admin","Timp estimat pentru citire":"5 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2827#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2827"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/#\/schema\/person\/a8f9d854425e670d7be352f0eef6054b"},"headline":"Scap\u0103 cine poate","datePublished":"2025-09-22T07:16:57+00:00","dateModified":"2025-10-21T15:51:43+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2827"},"wordCount":858,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2827#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/gold.png","articleSection":["Economie","Opinii","Politic\u0103"],"inLanguage":"ro-RO","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2827#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2827","url":"https:\/\/roexit.info\/?p=2827","name":"Scap\u0103 cine poate - 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